On Sunday, November 15th, the Los Angeles Chargers head east to take on the surging Miami Dolphins. Although this game isn’t a battle of two winning teams, it does have another subplot that has captured the attention of football fans and pundits around the country.
This game will feature two of the Top 3 rookie QBs as LA’s Justin Herbert battles Miami’s Tua Tagovailoa. These two quarterbacks were closely linked in the 2020 NFL Draft as pundits debated which team would take each QB. Now, they have a chance to prove who the better prospect is on Sunday.
Can the Herbert and the Chargers pull off the upset or will the Tua train keep rolling along? Kickoff inside the Hard Rock Stadium is at 4:05PM ET.
Chargers vs Dolphins Live Odds and Betting History
The following odds are courtesy of BetOnline:
|Los Angeles Chargers||+2.5 (-102)||+130||Over 48 (-115)|
|Miami Dolphins||-2.5 (-118)||-150||Under 48 (-105)|
|Betting Data||Los Angeles Chargers||Miami Dolphins|
|2020 ATS Home||2-2||3-1|
|2020 ATS Away||2-1-1||3-1|
|2020 O/U Home||2-2||1-3|
|2020 O/U Away||3-1||2-2|
Chargers vs Dolphins NFL Game Preview
These two teams have played against each other 34 total times and it’s the Dolphins holding the slight advantage at 18-16. Miami has won four of the last six games, but the Chargers did win the last meeting which came in September 2019. They won 30 to 10.
Needless to say, both teams are dramatically different since last year’s matchup. The Dolphins are 10-5 in home games against the Chargers.
- The Los Angeles Chargers (2-6) continues to find ways to lose games in heartbreak fashion. They could easily be 4-4 on the season if they didn’t suffer last minute defeats to the Broncos and Raiders in consecutive weeks. In fact, the also lost in OT to the Saints and Chiefs, along with coming up short against the Panthers and Bucs. All six of their losses have been by one score or less. This team could easily be 6-2 if they could’ve held on against the Chiefs, Saints, Broncos and Raiders.
- The Miami Dolphins (5-3) are on a roll having won four straight games. The last two wins have come with Tua under center as the team hasn’t missed a beat. In fact, they might even be more dangerous with Tua’s scrambling ability. Miami is looking to extend this streak to 5 in a row and keep pace with the Buffalo Bills in the AFC East division.
Head to Head Betting Trends
- Miami is 6-4 SU in last 10 games
- Miami is 6-4 ATS in last 10 meetings
- The Under is 9-1 in last 10 matchups
Los Angeles Chargers Betting Trends
- 1-6 SU in last seven games
- 3-11 SU in last 14 AFC games
- 4-1 SU when a road underdog of 3pts or less
- 5-7 SU against winning teams
- 4-0 ATS when a road underdog of 3pts or less
- 5-2 ATS after two or more losses in a row
- 5-8 ATS following a divisional game
- 4-1 ATS in last five AFC East games
- Over is 5-0 in last five games
Miami Dolphins Betting Trends
- 5-1 SU in last six games
- 7-2 SU when spread is +3 to -3pts
- 5-1 ATS in last six home games
- 6-1 ATS in last seven games
- 5-1 ATS in last six grass games
- 6-3 ATS in last nine November games
- 4-1 ATS as a favorite
- Over is 12-6 in last 18 November games
- Under is 4-2 in last six games
The spread opened with Dolphins favored by one point. Since then, the spread has gone up to -2.5 points in favor of Miami with most NFL betting sites. The Over/Under opened at 47 points, then went as high as 50 points, before coming back down to an O/U of 48 total points with most online betting sites.
Free NFL Sports Bet and Game Prediction: Over 48 points (-115)
This is going to be a fun game to watch between these two teams especially since we’ll get to see two young franchise QBs duel against each other.
The Chargers are much better than their record indicates. In fact, they could easily be 6-2 as mentioned above. All six losses have come via one score or less with two coming in OT and two more coming via last minute drives.
The Dolphins are heating up with four straight victories including two consecutive wins over west coast teams: Rams and Cardinals. Will they make it a third straight victory over a west coast team?
I think this game is going to come down to the last possession, which has been the norm for the Chargers this year. With that said, I believe the safe play for this contest is the Over/Under. In particular, I really like the Over 48 points for this contest.
Next up: Chargers on CBS at 4:05 pm ET! pic.twitter.com/ZXdQBHW6QF
— Miami Dolphins (@MiamiDolphins) November 9, 2020
On the season, the Chargers are averaging 25.6ppg and the Dolphins are averaging 27.9ppg. That’s a combined average of 53.4ppg.
In fact, for the Chargers, their last five games have combined for 57 points or higher. For the Dolphins five of their eight games have gone over 48 points.
The Chargers allow 27ppg and the Dolphins allow 20.1ppg. That’s a combined total of 47.1ppg which is right near the O/U for the week.
Furthermore, the Chargers have allowed opponents to score at least 29 points in five straight games. The Dolphins have given up 28ppg in their three losses.
The Over is 12-6 in Miami’s last 18 November games and it’s a perfect 5-0 in the Charges last five games of the season.
Where I believe the Chargers will have success is in the passing game as they average 294.8 passing ypg and the Dolphins allows 275 ypg through the air.
Tua and Miami are going to have a challenge to keep up the scoring pace with the Chargers. Fortunately, LA’s defense is 21st in points allowed at 27ppg and Tua showed over the last few weeks that this offense is dynamic.
I’ll be rooting for Herbert and the Chargers to get a victory, because I’m a Bills fan and an Oregon Ducks fan, but I’m betting on the Over 48 points in this exciting matchup.
Chargers vs Dolphins Betting Recap:
- Oddsmaker: BetOnline
- Moneylines: Chargers (+130) vs Dolphins (-150)
- Spread: Dolphins -2.5 (-118)
- Over/Under: 48 total points (-115)
- Prediction: Dolphins 30 – Chargers 28
Chargers vs Dolphins PickOver 48 points (-115)
As a longtime freelance writer, avid sports fan, former athlete, and experienced sports bettor, Rick Rockwell has risen up the ranks at GamblingSites.org to become the self-professed “King of the Blog” in his first year with the site. …