We’ve got just 10 games on the NBA schedule today, including a doubleheader between the White Sox and Tigers after last night’s game was postponed. The last game of the night is the beginning of a four-game weekend series between a pair of National League West rivals. The Arizona Diamondbacks, who were crushed 12-3 last night by the San Diego Padres, will welcome the Colorado Rockies to the desert.
These two teams are largely expected to bring up the rear in the division this season, but Arizona comes into tonight’s game at .500 on the year. The Diamondbacks are 7-3 over their last 10 games, as well. Colorado, meanwhile, is just 9-15 and appears destined to finish in last place. Earlier this week, general manager Jeff Bridich surprisingly stepped down, and the Rockies appear destined for a lengthy rebuilding process.
| Odds | Colorado Rockies | Arizona Diamondbacks |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline Odds | +131 | -146 |
| Runline Odds | +1.5 (-155) | -1.5 (+135) |
| Over/Under Odds | Over 8.5 (-120) | Under 8.5 (-120) |
Tonight, Antonio Senzatela will take the ball for the Rockies, while Arizona will start right-hander Luke Weaver. The D-Backs are -147 moneyline favorites at baseball betting sites online, in a game with an over/under of nine runs.
Senzatela’s Second Outing vs Arizona
Senzatela owns an unsightly 5.76 ERA through his first five starts of 2021, alongside a record of just 1-3. His 13.3 percent strikeout rate is among the lowest in the majors, as well. Rather than relying on generating swings-and-misses to get his outs, Senzatela is a decent ground ball pitcher. The right-hander has induced grounders at a respectable 50.7 percent clip in his career.
While this has largely been a season to forget to this point for Senzatela, he did fare quite well the last time he met the Diamondbacks. Back on April 7 at Coors Field, the 26-year-old held Arizona scoreless over eight dominant innings of work in an 8-0 victory. The D-Backs mustered just four hits in that one, three of which were singles. Senzatela only struck out three, but he got 16 ground ball outs on his way to his first and only win of the young season.
Couldn’t get the W tonight.
Onward to Arizona. pic.twitter.com/DjXaU8vZTN— Colorado Rockies (@Rockies) April 29, 2021
Arizona’s offense is a bit shorthanded right now, as well. All of Ketel Marte, Kole Calhoun, and Christian Walker are on the injured list, which leaves three of the D-Backs’ best bats on the bench tonight. That bodes well for Senzatela despite the Rockies’ underdog status in this game.
Weaver Starts for D-Backs
Luke Weaver has never quite lived up to expectations since arriving in St. Louis as a highly-touted prospect several years ago, but he has still turned himself into a solid starter. So far this season, the right-hander is 1-2 through four starts with a 4.57 ERA. He has never been much of a strikeout arm, but he does have good control.
On the flip side, this guy will also allow plenty of hard contact. Weaver has yielded a hard contact rate of 51.5 percent so far this season, with a career mark of 37.6 percent. Both of those are far too high. His barrel rate so far this season is up over 12 percent, which would have been high enough to lead the majors a season ago. Weaver has already allowed five homers through four games, including three in his start against the Rockies earlier this season.
— [pressed] (@_HenryChinaski_) April 29, 2021
Colorado only picked up four hits against him that day, but the damage was done with three of those hits leaving the ballpark. The Rockies’ offense has been largely dormant outside of Coors Field so far this season, but any lineup can inflict pain against a pitcher allowing so many hard-hit balls.
What’s the Best Bet?
Arizona is a justifiable favorite in this one, but the gap between these two teams isn’t as big as the current standings may lead you to believe. This is a skeleton crew version of the Diamondbacks’ offense right now, and we have already seen Senzatela have some success against these guys this season.
Pick: Rockies +1.5
Odds: -155
$100 Could Win You…$164.52
The Rockies’ offense does have some sneaky power, especially from the left side. Weaver has yielded a career wOBA of .340 to lefties, and tonight he’ll have to navigate the likes of Ryan McMahon, Charlie Blackmon, Dom Nunez, and Sam Hilliard from the left side. It’s far from the most loaded lineup in baseball, but there is value to be had here in betting the Rockies as road underdogs against a vulnerable starter in Weaver.
Colorado isn’t a bad bet at +136 to win the game outright on the moneyline, but I like the runline (+1.5, -155). This is the kind of wager that gives you positive expected value in the long run, so grab that Colorado runline tonight.
Taylor Smith
Taylor Smith has been a staff writer with GamblingSites.org since early 2017. Taylor is primarily a sports writer, though he will occasionally dabble in other things like politics and entertainment betting. His primary specialties are writing about the NBA, Major League Baseball, NFL and domestic and international soccer. Fringe sports like golf and horse racing aren’t exactly his cup of tea, bu …
