| Teams/Spread | Moneyline Odds | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Mavericks: +9 (-110) | +345 | Over 236.5 (-110) |
| Suns: -9 (-110) | -425 | Under 236.5 (-110) |
So, it all comes down to this. All four teams vying for the last two spots in the Western Conference play-in picture are in action on Thursday, so we will finally have some clarity as we get ready for the playoffs to begin next week. The Phoenix Suns, Memphis Grizzlies, Portland Trail Blazers, and San Antonio Spurs are all battling for the chance to get into the postseason.
The Suns have been the most pleasant surprise of the bubble thus far. Phoenix has gone a perfect 7-0 since the restart, which has resurrected their playoff hopes that appeared to be dead in the water back in March.
The Suns still need some help to get into the play-in tournament, but winning their final seeding game tonight against Dallas would put them in a good spot.
The Mavericks, meanwhile, have nothing to play for. Dallas is locked into the No. 7 seed in the Western Conference playoffs, which means they’ll face a date with the Los Angeles Clippers in the first round. The Mavs have already said that Kristaps Porzingis is doubtful to play in this game, and it would be a bit of a surprise if Rick Carlisle allowed Luka Doncic to play too much, either.
As a result, the Mavs are nine-point underdogs in a game that still has a sizable 236.5 over/under.
Devin Booker for Bubble MVP?
The NBA announced yesterday that it will be handing out an MVP award for the player that performed best over the course of the eight-game seeding schedule. While the favorite has to be Damian Lillard at this point, Devin Booker can’t be too far behind. Most thought the Suns were toast when the restart began, but Phoenix has been the most impressive team of all.
Through his first seven games in Orlando, Booker is averaging 31 points per game, and he’s scored exactly 35 in each of his last three outings. He has essentially put the team on his shoulders in the run-up to the playoffs, and he hit a game-winning shot a the buzzer to beat the Clippers in Phoenix’ third restart game.
There’s absolutely no reason to believe he won’t come out aggressively again tonight, as it’s a win-or-go-home scenario for the Suns.
Monty Williams has tightened his rotation in these must-win games, but the team has also gotten unexpected contributions from unlikely sources like Cam Payne and Jevon Carter in the bubble. Carter was particularly big in the Suns’ victory over Miami a couple of games ago, when he supplied 20 points, 4 rebounds, three assists, and a steal in 26 minutes of action. Mikal Bridges and Cameron Johnson have given the Suns good minutes on the wing, while Deandre Ayton’s contributions in the middle continue to go overlooked.
The Suns can get into the play-in scenario with a win and a loss by either Portland or Memphis tonight.
Mavs Resting Up
Porzingis is dealing with a “heel contusion,” which sounds like a convenient excuse for the Mavericks to give him the night off. Rick Carlisle essentially played a normal rotation in the team’s last game against Portland, with Porzingis (36), Tim Hardaway Jr. (37), and Luka Doncic (35) all playing heavy minutes.
With this game meaning absolutely nothing to the Mavericks, it would be a massive surprise if Carlisle didn’t limit the playing time for his starters while giving the reserves some extra burn. Guys like Trey Burke, Boban Marjanovic, JJ Barea, and Justin Jackson seem like decent candidates to play a decent amount while Doncic, Hardaway, and Porzingis rest up for what should be a fascinating first-round playoff series against the Clippers.
Dallas Mavericks vs. Phoenix Suns NBA Pick
Frankly, this game has blowout written all over it. This spread is as big as it is because oddsmakers are expecting the Mavericks to take it easy, while the Suns will be going full-bore in what may wind up being their final game of the season.
The Suns haven’t let up to this point, so why should we expect them to do so today?
The Suns to cover the spread in this one looks like easy money. We could see Phoenix as a double-digit favorite as we get closer to tip-off, especially if the Mavericks decide to announce that some of their other regulars are sitting this one out.
Take Phoenix to cover in a must-win game.
$100 Could Win You…$190.90
Taylor Smith
Taylor Smith has been a staff writer with GamblingSites.org since early 2017. Taylor is primarily a sports writer, though he will occasionally dabble in other things like politics and entertainment betting. His primary specialties are writing about the NBA, Major League Baseball, NFL and domestic and international soccer. Fringe sports like golf and horse racing aren’t exactly his cup of tea, bu …
