Derby Prep Betting Preview (Gotham and San Felipe Stakes)

The Kentucky Derby prep race season is hitting one its high points this weekend with a pair of huge races. On Saturday, the Gotham Stakes and San Felipe Stakes will give horse racing fans a bicoastal look at some of the top three-year-olds in the country. And we’re here to give you a betting preview of these two crucial races.

This is the time of the year where thoroughbred horse racing fans start to find out which three-year-old horses have what it takes to make it on the Triple Crown circuit. Many of the graded stakes for three-year-olds on the schedule in this time period are known as “Derby Preps.” In other words, they are specifically meant as races to help narrow down the field for the Kentucky Derby, which is the most prestigious of all US races and takes place the first Saturday in May.

That means the Derby is about two months away and that prospective entrants in the race need to start doing what they can to punch their tickets to the race. To do that, they have to perform well enough in the Derby prep races to earn their way into the Run for the Roses. On Saturday, the Gotham Stakes and San Felipe Stakes will likely clear the path for a few Derby hopefuls to get into the final field of 20.

East West Action

The Gotham Stakes is one of the highlights of the meet at Aqueduct in New York. It’s a Grade 3 event featuring eight entrants. And the winner will likely have a great shot at making the Derby once the winning points are added to its total.

Across the country in California, the San Felipe Stakes will also be taking place on Saturday. The San Felipe is a Grade 2 and features seven top West Coast performers. And, just as is the case with the Gotham, the San Felipe winner will be sitting pretty in the Derby standings.

In the following article, we’ll take an in-depth look at the combatants in these two major races. And we’ll also make our picks for who we believe will come out on top. Not only will you have a good idea of who might be headed to the Kentucky Derby, but you should have a handle on the right bets to make on these two big races.

Gotham Stakes

• Where: Aqueduct Racetrack in Queens, New York
• When: Saturday, March 6, 2021, post time approximately 5:07 PM Eastern Time (Race 9 on Aqueduct’s program)
• Who: Eight three-year-old horses
• How Long: 1 mile
• Surface: Dirt
• Purse: $250,000

Gotham Stakes Contenders

#1 Atlantic Road (Jorge Vargas Jr., Todd Pletcher) 10-1

It’s hard to get too much of a price when you’re dealing with a trainee of Todd Pletcher, who last won the Gotham a year ago wwith Stay Thirsty.





Atlantic Road might get you double-digit odds, and he is coming off a nice maiden victory. Still, the improvement will have to be pretty substantial for him to get where he needs in this one.

#2 The Reds (Pablo Morales, John Kimmel) 12-1

Usually at this time in their careers, we’re talking about horses stretching out distance-wise. In the case of The Reds, he’s actually shortening up after picking up his maiden victory at 1 1/8 miles in his last race. But his previous experience at distances similar to the mile he’ll be going on Saturday is not encouraging.

#3 Highly Motivated (Javier Castellano, Chad Brown) 2-1

Javier Castellano last won the Gotham about Saratoga County in 2004, while trainer Chad Brown got it done with Shagaf five years ago. The positives for this colt is his excellent two-year-old season (two wins in three starts) and a mile distance that seems to be in his wheelhouse. But the big concern is the layoff of nearly four months since his last race.

#4 Wipe The Slate (Kenrick Carmouche, Doug O’Neill) 8-1

Jockey Kendrick Carmouche will try to become the first jockey since Ramon Dominguez to win two straight Gotham Stakes, after he scored with Mischievous Alex in 2020. Wipe The Slate looked a bit rusty in his first try in California this year. But the competition could be more forgiving in this one, while the one-turn style of the Gotham might suit him better in his cross-country effort.

#5 Crowded Trade (Eric Cancel, Chad Brown) 8-1

A win in his debut in January was enough to convince the connections that this youngster could step up the ladder in a hurry. He’ll have to stretch out just a bit from six furlongs, although the way he came on late in his debut was a good sign.


It’s just hard to gauge whether or not he’s ready for such a jump in competition.

#6 Capo Cane (Dylan Davis, Harold Wyner) 4-1

He was respectable in his first Grade 3 last time out, finishing third in a Grade 3. More germane to this discussion though is the fact that his two wins came at 1 mile and 70 yards and a mile. In other words, Capo Cane should be right in his pocket in this one.

#7 Freedom Fighter (Manny Franco, Bob Baffert) 5-2

Bob Baffert’s seemingly infinite cadre of three-year-old talent will be on display on both coasts on Saturday. In the Gotham, he sends out Freedom Fighter, who finished behind his stablemate Concert Tour in a graded stakes in his only start thus far this year. The second start off the layoff angle with this horse gives Baffert a chance to win one of the few graded stakes that has eluded him in his career.

#8 Weyburn (Trevor McCarthy, Jimmy Jerkens) 15-1

An outside post isn’t the best spot to be for a horse that seems to want to run on the lead. That’s what Weyburn did when he broke his maiden in his last start of 2020. He’s been off since December, which means that there could be a rust factor in addition to a class deficiency.

Gotham Stakes Pick

While the morning-line favorite Highly Motivated might need a start to get to top form, Freedom Fighter should be in fighting shape and come out the winner. Fellow West Coast invader Wipe The Slate will slide in for the place with Capo Cane hitting the board for third. That makes 7-4-6 for your trifecta tickets in the Gotham.

San Felipe Stakes Betting Preview

• Where: Santa Anita Park in Arcadia, California
• When: Saturday, March 6, 2021, post time approximately 5:30 PM Eastern Time (Race 6 on Santa Anita’s program)
• Who: Seven three-year-old horses
• How Long: 1 1/16 miles
• Surface: Dirt
• Purse: $300,000

San Felipe Stakes Contenders

#1 Life Is Good (Bob Baffert, Mike Smith) 1-1

There’s no surprise that Bob Baffert has dominated this race, winning three of the last five runnings and seven overall.


And he has the top two choices in this one, with Life Is Good coming in with two wins in two race, the last one at a mile in a Grade 3. Two concerns though: This is his first time around two turns and his first race in a couple months.

#2 Dream Shake (Joel Rosario, Peter Eurton) 6-1

A nice maiden victory in his debut put this horse on the radar, especially considering the top connections. But to pick Dream Shake, you have to project him both around two turns for the first time and against the tougher competition. You’d be betting on raw talent, which isn’t always a bad thing.

#3 Medina Spirit (John Velazquez, Bob Baffert) 7-2

He did lose fair and square to Life Is Good when they met in January. But he also came back and won at 1 1/16 in graded company, which means he has experience at the distance and, even more crucially, at two turns. That could give him the leg up on his stablemate this time around.

#4 None Above The Law (Flavien Prat, Peter Miller) 20-1

After winning his debit at 5 furlongs as a two-year-old, this colt has come up empty in five tries. In his defense, None Above The Law did manage a second at this distance in stakes competition in his last race. But he’s up against much tougher in here, which is why he’s understandably one of the longest shots on the board.

#5 The Great One (Abel Cedillo, Doug O’Neill) 9-2

A horse that took five tries to get his maiden win might not be one that you would consider for stakes competition.


But one of his losses as a maiden came as a second-place finisher to Spielberg, who is considered one of the top Derby contenders. It will be interesting to see how The Great One performs now that he has the confidence of a win under his belt.

#6 Govenor’s Party (Mario Gutierrez, Daniel Franko) 30-1

With seven races already under his belt, this colt has certainly been seasoned enough. And his last few races have been his best, including a third around two turns in his last race. But Govenor’s Party faces a serious class deficiency here, which is why the oddsmakers have largely written him off.

#7 Roman Centurian (Juan Hernandez, Simon Callaghan) 6-1

He couldn’t quite get past Medina Spirit in the Grade 3 Robert Lewis Stakes in his last start. Still, it was encouraging how competitive he was around two turns, especially since a few of the horses in here haven’t had that experience yet. Roman Centurian seems like he’s a notch below the top bunch, but the possibility of him sneaking up for a minor award is certainly there.

San Felipe Stakes Pick

With the extra distance added, look for Baffert’s two horses to battle again, only this time with Medina Spirit winning. Life Is Good should come up short in second but still be poised for better things later in the year, while Roman Centurian has the stuff for the show. Make the wager 3-1-7 at the top horse racing betting site of your choice.