Houston Rockets vs Oklahoma City Thunder Game 4 Pick and Prediction

Teams/Spread	Moneyline Odds	Total
Rockets -3 (-110)	-150	Over 222 (-110)
Thunder +3 (-110)	+130	Under 222 (-110)

We have already seen a couple of teams, the Toronto Raptors and Boston Celtics, sweep their way into the second round of the NBA playoffs. We won’t be seeing any sweeps out West, however, as both teams have won at least once in all four Western Conference first-round series. On Saturday, the Oklahoma City Thunder closed to within 2-1 of the Houston Rockets with a 119-107 overtime victory in Game 3 of their series.

OKC will have a golden opportunity to even things up and turn it into a best-of-three on Monday afternoon. Fortunately for the Thunder, center Steven Adams is expected to play after leaving Saturday’s game with a knee contusion. Houston will still be without Russell Westbrook, who has missed every game of this series with a quad strain.

Even so, Houston checks in as a three-point favorite in a game with a 222 total in Monday’s Game 4.

Houston’s Shooting Woes

The Rockets may lead the series 2-1, but they have endured some rough shooting streaks at times throughout the first three games. With Westbrook sidelined, James Harden and Eric Gordon are shouldering most of the offensive load. Unfortunately for Houston, neither guy has been shooting as well as the team hoped they would.

Gordon, for example, is 2-for-20 from three-point range over the last two games combined. Harden, meanwhile, is just 5-for-24 from deep. The Rockets are a team that lives and dies by the three-pointer, and it didn’t help that Harden fouled out in the overtime period in Game 3. Houston mustered just three points in that OT and didn’t score until there was less than a minute left on the clock.

Houston went just 15-for-50 (30 percent) from long range in that game, while the Thunder went 14-for-41 (34.1 percent). The Rockets have to dominate the game from beyond-the-arc in order to win, which pretty much sums up what happened in Game 3. They went 20-for-52 from deep in an easy win in Game 1, followed by a 19-for-56 showing in Game 2.

If Harden and/or Gordon even hit their threes at an average rate, the Rockets likely win Game 3 pretty handily. Houston has gotten excellent performances out of ancillary pieces like Jeff Green, Austin Rivers, and Danuel House. At this point, it’s just a matter of one of their go-to offensive pieces having even an average offensive showing. You have to believe that’s going to happen at some point, so why not Game 4?

OKC’s Harden Stopper?

Luguentz Dort is hardly a household name around the NBA, but those that have watched this series thus far have to be impressed by what he’s been able to accomplish. The little-known rookie has been tasked with trying to stop Harden so far in this series. While he hasn’t “stopped” the former MVP, he has made Harden work for his points.

The problem for the Thunder in this series is that they need to find a way to match Houston’s offensive output. When the Rockets are able to hit their threes at a regular clip, keeping up with them is an incredibly tall task. While Dort’s defense is incredibly valuable, the fact that he gives the Thunder absolutely nothing offensively is an issue. The Rockets are leaving Dort wide open and daring him to beat them. In Game 3, he shot just 3-for-10 from the field in his 25 minutes of action.

Fortunately for the Thunder, they don’t really need to worry about having a big lineup out there. The three-guard lineup of Dennis Schroder, Chris Paul, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is playable against Houston’s small-ball look. Those three combined to score 78 points in Game 3.

Houston Rockets vs Oklahoma City Thunder NBA Pick

The Rockets seem to be due for some positive offensive regression. While Dort’s defense has been a fun story, it’s hard to imagine the rookie being able to sustain this kind of success against one of the best offensive players the game has ever seen. Dort has the physical tools to give Harden problems, but I’d be surprised if Harden struggled offensively again in Game 4.

Oklahoma City just needs an awful lot to go right in order to win. Even without Westbrook, the Rockets just have too much firepower. If Houston’s threes start to fall, the Thunder will be in trouble.

The Rockets are a high-variance team in general thanks to their reliance on long-range shooting, but I like the value on Houston to cover the spread in Game 4. I don’t think these teams are as evenly-matched as this spread makes it seem, and there’s obviously no home-court advantage to consider. Take the Rockets to cover the three-point spread in this one.