Houston vs Baylor Betting Odds and Free Pick

For the first time ever, all four teams taking place in the Final Four come from schools located west of the Mississippi River. A pair of Texas schools – Baylor and Houston – punched their respective tickets to Indianapolis on Monday. The very next night, a couple of west coast outfits – Gonzaga and UCLA – did the same.

While Gonzaga is still a heavy favorite to ultimately win the title at season’s end, the Bulldogs are unlikely to breeze their way to their first-ever championship. UCLA may or may not give the Zags much of a test on Saturday, but Baylor and Houston have both shown that they’re capable of beating any team on any night all year long.

Moneyline Betting Odds: Houston vs Baylor

• Baylor (-215)
• Houston (+185)

Spread Betting Odds: Houston vs Baylor

• Baylor -5 (-110)
• Houston +5 (-110)

Over/Under Betting Odds: Houston vs Baylor

• Over 134.5 (-110)
• Under 134.5 (-110)

It’ll be fascinating to watch the Cougars tangle with the Bears in the Final Four. This is Baylor’s first appearance in the NCAA semifinals since 1950, while Houston hasn’t been here since the Phi Slama Jama era back in 1984.

The Bears are slight 4.5-point favorites at March Madness betting sites over the Coogs on Saturday night in a game with a 134.5 implied total.

Can the Cougars Keep It Up?

Houston didn’t face the toughest competition during the regular season playing in the American Athletic Conference, but the Coogs still finished the season 28-3 and second in the AAC regular-season standings behind Wichita State. Houston then went on to win the AAC Tournament before their NCAA Tournament victories over Cleveland State, Rutgers, Syracuse, and Oregon State to reach the Final Four.

Houston is one of the few teams in America to rank in the top-10 in both offense and defense, per KenPom rankings. The Cougars actually had a fairly “easy” path to the Final Four, with none of their previous opponents having been seeded higher than No. 10 Rutgers. Regardless, the Coogs made relatively quick work of red-hot Syracuse and Oregon State teams in each of the last two rounds.

Marcus Sasser is LOCKED IN.

19 PTS | 5-10 from three 💦 pic.twitter.com/1ThiBziv0d

— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) March 30, 2021

Houston will have to be on their game defensively if they want to pull the upset here. Baylor is one of the most prolific offensive teams in the country. The Cougars have been proficient on that end of the floor all season long, of course, as they have still only allowed one of their opponents (East Carolina, of all teams) to crack 80 points in a game all year. The 61 points mustered by the Beavers in the Elite Eight were the most scored by any team against Houston in this tourney, as well.

The Cougars are one of the most athletic teams in the nation, but Baylor is one of the few squads capable of matching that athleticism. Quentin Grimes and Marcus Sasser combined to hit nine threes against Oregon State, and the threes will have to be falling again on Saturday if Houston is to advance to the next round.

Baylor’s Shooting Prowess

Houston can get after it defensively, but the Coogs will have their hands full with Baylor’s trio of star guards. Davion Mitchell seems to be solidifying his status as a future NBA lottery pick with an excellent tournament run, while Jared Butler and MaCio Teague give the Bears an unfair amount of offensive firepower.

The Bears are active defensively, as evidenced by the fact that they have forced an average of nearly 17 turnovers per game. The Bears are also plus-40 in turnover margin on the season as a whole. However, Houston doesn’t turn the ball over much themselves. The Coogs turned it over just 10.6 times per game during the regular season, which was the 12th-lowest mark in the nation.

Four of Baylor’s seven players who played tonight — MaCio Teague, Davion Mitchell, Adam Flagler, and Jonathan Tchamwa-Tchatchoua — all redshirted. Bigger. Stronger. Older.

— Jon Rothstein (@JonRothstein) March 30, 2021

Houston will have a tough time keeping Baylor off of the three-point line. The Bears survived a scare against Villanova in the Sweet Sixteen in a game in which they came out flat offensively, but they didn’t have nearly as much trouble against Arkansas in the last round. The Bears knocked down eight of their 15 triples against the Razorbacks (53.3 percent) on their way to an 81-72 victory. Teague (22 points) led the way, while Butler (14) and Mitchell (12) played significant roles of their own.

Baylor (second) and Houston (fifth) were among the most prolific offensive teams in the country this season. Baylor shot the best three-point percentage in America (41.1 percent), though, while Houston was just 112th (34.9 percent). The Cougars being less reliant on the three-ball means they’re less prone to lengthy dry spells, but if the shots are dropping for Baylor, the Cougars could struggle to keep pace.

What’s the Best Bet?

Houston is 38-15 all-time in head-to-head meetings with Baylor, dating back to their old days in the Southwest Conference together. Of course, these teams are vastly different than the ones that became rivals back in the day. Both teams rank near the top of both offensive and defensive efficiency rankings, which makes this an incredibly compelling matchup on both ends of the floor.

In the end, though, Houston may not have enough depth to overcome Baylor in this one. If the Bears happen to get hot from beyond the arc, they have the potential to run away with it. I do think Houston likely keeps the game competitive over the course of the full 40 minutes, but this is still a solid spot to take the Bears to cover.