How Continuity Should Affect Your NFL Futures Bets This Year

Having continuity in the NFL could be much more important than ever before because of the unique nature of this offseason. Read all about how each team ranks in the continuity department.

As you sit down to make your NFL futures wagers this month, you’ll probably be looking at how each team stacks up in terms of talent. But you might want to consider continuity as one of the key factors in your bets. With that in mind, we’re here to help with a look at the 30 NFL teams and how much they’ve rolled over from last season to this, as well as how much they’ve changed.

NFL teams are generally used to a certain schedule from one year to the next. They have rookie camps, minicamps, preseason training camps and preseason games to assess their rosters. It makes any big transitions that they have to make less dramatic and daunting.

But this year has been an offseason like no other. Rookie camps and minicamps were largely virtual, hands-off affairs, while the preseason has been truncated, with less times in pads and helmets. On top of that, there will be no preseason games this year.

What that means is that the continuity factor might be more important this year than it has ever been before when assessing teams. The teams that have the highest portions of their contributors returning should be in better shape than those where large turnover is taking place. That goes not only for playing personnel, but also in the coaching departments.

For example, if a team was planning on putting in a new offensive of defensive system, it will be much harder to implement those overhauls in this setting. In addition, teams relying on new faces from other teams and rookies will be hard-pressed to get them into the swing of things right off the bat. To complicate matters even further, recent opt-outs have teams scrambling to fill spots they thought were under control.

There’s a Lot of Uncertainty in the NFL This Year

And that uncertainty means that you, as a bettor, have both obstacles and opportunities when it comes to your futures wagers. On the one hand, it will be more difficult than ever to diagnose what each team is going to look like heading into Week 1.

But another way to look at it is to realize that there will be futures odds that can be exploited if you can factor in the continuity issues. Most oddsmakers are focused on who is on the roster, not how and when they got there. You might be able to take advantage of this.

With that in mind, we’re here to take you through the NFL with an eye towards the continuity factor. We’re going to give you a quick capsule look at how each team looks in terms of their carryover, in on-field personnel and coaching philosophies, from last year to this one. And we’ll give you our assessment of whether their current odds reflect that. Check out these team by team continuity reports.

AFC East

Buffalo Bills (+110, +1000, +2500)

This is supposed to be the year that the Buffalo Bills take the AFC East crown away from a Tom Brady-less Patriot team, and their continuity seems to feed into that belief. Offensively, they return all five offensive line starters, which is a huge plus. The system based around a strong running game and quarterback Josh Allen’s versatility, is also well in place.





But there are some worries on defense, which had been the strength of this squad. In particular, the defensive line was already switching two starters when run-stuffer Star Lotulelei opted out. If the Bills are going to realize their prediction as a nearly odds-on choice in the AFC East, they’ll have to get that sorted out or else they’ll lose their ball-control edge.

New England Patriots (+150, +1000, +2000)

That set of odds above reflects a whole lot of faith in Bill Belichick. But anybody who saw this team at the end of last year, even with Tom Brady still in place, witnessed a shell of the world-beaters they’ve been in the past. And this offseason has been extremely unkind to them.

They were already dealing with an overhaul at quarterback and linebacker, but then the opt-outs hit. The Pats lost eight players to opt-outs, including key starters Patrick Chung, Don’t’a Hightower and Marcus Cannon. Even if you’re a true believer in a Cam Newton rejuvenation, you should be fading this team in a big way.

Miami Dolphins (+700, +5000, +12500)

The Dolphins are a trendy sleeper pick among those in the know. But if the continuity issues have anything to say about it, the only way they’ll be in the mix is if the Bills and the Pats tank. There are two new coordinators and a host of new starters to try to get acclimated in an awful hurry.





One area where continuity might otherwise work in their favor, quarterback, might actually also end up in turnover. The Dolphins have to decide when it’s time to turn the squad over to highly-touted rookie Tua Tagovailoa, who is already playing catch-up due to injury. This team will look vastly different from the one that ended last year playing surprisingly feisty, which won’t make it easy.

New York Jets (+850, +5000, +12500)

You’d be hard-pressed to find too many Jets fans who feel like the fact that Adam Gase has another year to install his offensive system is a good thing. But the truth is that New York does have both coordinators in place and a roster not going that much overhaul. Remember that they won six of their last eight games last year.

One big blow was the unexpected opt-out of C.J. Mosley, but New York should be used to being without him from last year while he was hurt for most of the season. The offensive line is getting a shuffle, which will require some sorting out. But this team might be a futures bargain, or at least a team you should be picking against the spread early in the season.

AFC North

Baltimore Ravens (-170, +350, +650)

One of the reasons that the Baltimore Ravens and Chiefs are co-Super Bowl favorites is that they both return largely intact from a year ago. In the Ravens case, both systems remain the same, and Lamar Jackson could actually get better from his MVP form a year ago. That’s a scary thought for the rest of the league.





They do have to replace Marshall Yanda, a stalwart at guard who retired. And there will be some pressure on rookie middle linebacker Patrick Queen to get it figured out in a hurry. But the Ravens, who shored up their one problem area with the additions of Calais Campbell and Derek Wolfe on the defensive line, look fierce.

Pittsburgh Steelers (+340, +1200, +2200)

The Steelers were one of the few teams in the league who didn’t have any opt-outs. That added to a relatively tranquil offseason for the squad that seems poised for a big rebound. Key to that, of course, is the return of Ben Roethlisberger to full health, which would kick the offense back into gear after their lackluster 2019.

On defense, Pittsburgh rose to a different level last year upon the trade for Minkah Fitzpatrick. Considering the success they had with Fitzpatrick on the fly, it’s exciting to this what this unit can do with some time to get comfortable. Those odds above all seem tempting enough to make Pittsburgh a good futures wager across the board.

Cleveland Browns (+400, +1600, +3000)

Considering that the Ravens and Steelers seem to have fewer changes than most to worry about, it’s interesting to see that the Browns futures odds, in the same division, seem a bit generous This is a team that is changing everything once again after a disastrous 2019. That makes it hard to see how anyone could consider them being close to the same level as the stable Pittsburgh team.





There are new starters everywhere in Cleveland, a new head coach, and two new coordinators. New coach Kevin Stefanski’s run-heavy background would seem to contradict the high-profile quarterback and receivers and their desires. This team looks like a bit of a mess heading into the year, one whose futures odds don’t quite reflect that uncertainty.

Cincinnati Bengals (+2000, +6600, +15000)

The addition of Joe Burrow is the very reason there is slight optimism in Cincy. But, as brilliant as he was in college, he is a rookie who will be trying to learn his position while in the midst of an unforgiving timeline. Luckily, most of the other offensive pieces will be the same from a year ago.

Cincy will be looking at new starters on all three levels of the defense. The secondary, in particular, will be looking completely different from a year ago. Considering how bad this defense was a year ago, change, even in this unique season, probably is a good thing here.

AFC South

Indianapolis Colts (+110, +1000, +2000)

All of the AFC South teams get a slight boost in terms of futures odds from the fact that this is the weakest division in football. You could make a case for any team winning it. In Indy, that case is largely based on Philip Rivers coming in and solving the quarterback problems that bedeviled them a year ago.





But he is still coming into a new system, even though he has been associated with Indianapolis Colts coach Frank Reich before. Indy will also be working two brand new cornerbacks into the mix, although both are veterans, which should make the transition somewhat smoother. All in all, a bit of a mixed bag of good and bad when it comes to continuity.

Tennessee Titans (+200, +1400, +3000)

The Titans would do well to try and replicate the chemistry that they had a year ago once Ryan Tannehill came back to the fold. In addition, Tennessee benefits from the fact that so much of their success is based on handing the ball to Derrick Henry. That’s a formula that won’t need a lot of fine-tuning.

One possible frustration has been the status of Vic Beasley Jr. First, he showed up late for camp, and then he failed his physical. The Titans are a bit weak in the pass-rushing department, which is the main area where they hoped that Beasley would contribute.

Houston Texans (+325, +3300, +6600)

Looking at the odds, it’s interesting to see that the Texans aren’t too far behind the Colts and Titans in the division odds, but are well behind them in terms of the AFC Championship and the Super Bowl. It could mean that the oddsmakers don’t see this team as a larger threat. And perhaps they don’t like the moves that Bill O’Brien made in the offseason.





Most people were against the trade that sent DeAndre Hopkins to Arizona for David Johnson, although the Texans tried to cover the loss at receiver with the additions of Randall Cobb and Brandin Cooks. Houston needs a healthy J.J. Watt to spark the defense. That will probably weigh more than any continuity concerns.

Jacksonville Jaguars (+1500, +12500, +30000)

The Jaguars are the longest shot in the league to win the Super Bowl. Just a few years ago, they boasted of the best defense in the league and came within a hair of winning the AFC. But that seems like a long time ago, as salary cap concerns and other unexpected events have dismantled that group.

The offensive transition should be eased by the fact that Gardner Minshew got a lot of experience a year ago. But, on defense, things keep going from bad to worse, as star defensive lineman Yannick Ngakoue doesn’t seem to have any desire to suit up. Those odds might not be long enough.

AFC West

Kansas City Chiefs (-375, +340, +650)

If you’re looking for some continuity flaws in the defending champion Kansas City Chiefs, a couple of opt-outs could cause some concern. First of all, there was the departure of Laurent Duvernay-Tardif, a key member of the offensive line. Keeping Pat Mahomes upright is crucial, especially when you consider how the Chiefs staggered a bit last year when he missed time.





Another interesting loss is running back Damien Williams. Many folks are excited about rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire playing full-time right off the bat. But rookie running backs often need to adjust, which could have Andy Reid scrambling at a key position.

Denver Broncos (+800, +2500, +5000)

It seems likely that the Broncos are a team that is hurting a bit more than most due to the truncated offseason. With a rookie quarterback in Drew Lock and a receiving corps made up primarily of relatively inexperienced albeit talented youngsters, the reps could have helped. Incorporating Melvin Gordon into the offense also could be bumpy in this scenario.

The contrast is on the defensive end. Although losing Chris Harris and Derek Wolfe won’t help, getting Bradley Chubb back healthy to help Von Miller rush the passer will offset those losses. And having a year under their belt in Vic Fangio’s system could help the Bronco defenders do serious damage this year.

Las Vegas Raiders (+800, +3000, +8000)

Controversial as some of their personnel decisions have been, it seems like the combination of Jon Gruden and Mike Mayock have the Raiders pointing in the right direction. More and more young players have asserted themselves the past few seasons. Any team would envy young budding stars like Josh Jacobs, Darren Waller and Maxx Crosby.





With pieces like that already in place, the Raiders won’t have to work as hard to get things straight this offseason. There are some new linebackers and receivers that have to be incorporated. But Las Vegas (that still seems weird to say) gets an A in the continuity department, which means they could be a sneaky futures play.

Los Angeles Chargers (+1000, +2500, +5000)

The Chargers have long division odds, the conference and Super Bowl odds are a bit out of whack with that. Perhaps that’s an indication of bettors thinking that they’ll need some time to gel. And that could mean that rookie quarterback Justin Herbert will be the one who needs that time.

Of course, coach Anthony Lynn is making noise about starting veteran Tyrod Taylor until Herbert is ready. And, with this odd offseason, that might make some sense. But it’s hard to imagine the offensive weapons that this team has taking full flight until Herbert gets in there to prove what he can do.

NFC East

Dallas (+100, +750, +1600)

The Dallas Cowboys right now are the epitome of a team that looks great on paper. They continue to add pieces, with pass rusher Everson Griffen the latest to join on. But how well it all gels for new coach Mike McCarthy will go a long way toward whether or not they can cash in on the odds listed above.





The offensive line is a huge part of Dallas’ success, so replacing the retired Travis Frederick is a big concern. And you could argue that the most important part of their defense, Leighton Vander Esch, is an unknown due to injury concerns. This team could indeed be awesome, but it might be a bit before they get to that point.

Philadelphia (+140, +1200, +2000)

The Eagles seemed to be on much firmer ground at the start of the offseason than they are now. First came the season-ending injury to Brandon Brooks, one of the best offensive linemen in football. Then there was the opt-out of Marquise Goodwin, who was expected to add youth and speed to a somewhat creaky corps of receivers.

On top of that, the Eagles are working in several new defensive starters, like Javon Hargrave and Darius Slay. That unit needs to come together, because they struggled for the most part last year. It’s been a bumpy spring and summer for Philly, and that could have after-effects in the fall.

New York Giants (+900, +4000, +8000)

The Giants are one of the teams making big changes to the off-field personnel. New coach Joe Judge welcomes in two new coordinators, as they try to transition out of the Eli Manning era. Offensively, the personnel remains largely the same and can take a step forward if they get some health and better offensive line play.





There are more changes afoot on the defensive end. The linebacking corps will look significantly different. On top of that, the off-field issues of cornerback DeAndre Baker could have New York scrambling at a position that was already a problem area.

Washington Football Team (+1000, +10000, +25000)

Talk about changes: Washington even has a new name. But, alas, the same on-field ineptitude could be in place for new coach Ron Rivera. The latest hit came with the forced release of running back Derrick Guice, which means that a recent second-round pick was pretty much a sunk cost.

The sad part is that this could be a decent defense, since Rivera has a good reputation in that department. In addition, Chase Young could be an immediate impact player, since rushing the passer usually doesn’t require too much worry about learning schemes. But the offense looks like the worst in football by a wide margin.

NFC North

Minnesota Vikings (+150, +1500, +2500)

The Minnesota Vikings success is built on defense, but there are massive changes taking place on that side of the ball. The cornerbacks are largely inexperienced folks. On top of that, Michael Pierce, who was signed to replace the departed Linval Joseph at nose tackle, opted out, leaving a big hole in the run defense.





The good news is that the offense should be on solid ground, providing that rookie Justin Jefferson hits the ground running as they try to replace Stefon Diggs. New coordinator Gary Kubiak will be sticking with the same concepts. That means a lot of Dalvin Cook runs and Kirk Cousins play-action passes.

Green Bay Packers (+225, +1100, +2200)

You could argue that Aaron Rodgers will feel more comfortable after a year playing with coach Matt Lafleur. But the Packers did Rodgers no favors by failing to add any rookie talent at receiver. To make matter worse, free-agent signing Devin Funchess opted out, hurting the position depth even more behind obvious stalwart Davante Adams.

The flip side to this is the defense, where the Packers are brimming with young talent. Green Bay needs Rodgers at his best to get back to championship level. Maybe his second year with LaFleur will be a smoother ride, although the lack of receiving talent makes that a pretty big leap of faith.

Chicago Bears (+400, +1800, +3500)

Quarterback battles can cause lingering problems even in the best of scenarios. How will the Bears duel between Nick Foles and Mitchell Trubisky work out in this strange scenario? It has to be worked out, because this offense was a shambles a year ago.





Usually, the Bears could lean on their defense to carry the day. But they took a hit when nose tackle Eddie Goldman decided to opt out. In a division with Aaron Jones and Dalvin Cook, that could be extremely problematic if the fill-ins can’t get the job done.

Detroit Lions (+400, +3500, +6600)

The third season for Matt Patricia in Detroit will likely be his last unless the Lions show marked improvement. On offense, simply having Matthew Stafford healthy cures a lot of ills. He thrived under coordinator Darrell Bevell last year and adds rookie running back DeAndre Swift to a relatively stable group.

But the defense will have to incorporate a lot of new faces. Can rookie cornerback Jeff Okudah immediately slide into a major role as a defensive stopper. And will the changes in the front seven cause chaos or finally mean some pressure on opposing quarterbacks?

NFC South

New Orleans Saints (+110, +550, +1100)

When you talk about continuity, you look at the Saints, where Drew Brees and Sean Payton have been joined at the hip for what seems like forever. Now with Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara in their primes as the premiere playmakers, it’s one of the best casts that duo has had around them. Look for rookie center Cesar Ruiz’ development to be a big part of the team’s success.





The offense gets so much love that it’s easy to overlook the talent the New Orleans Saints have been building on defense. There is a little turnover at linebacker and safety, but the ley components return. In other words, the Saints are one of the most likely teams to pick up right where they left off.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+115, +550, +1200)

How much of a difference will be a quarterback make? That’s the question that bettors have to decide when it comes to Tampa. On the surface, besides the addition of Tom Brady and his partner in crime Rob Gronkowski, this is largely the same team that went 7-9 a year ago.

The defense showed great improvement down the stretch a year ago and is poised to continue in that vein if the secondary holds up. Brady needs good play from first-round rookie Tristan Wirfs, who will be thrown right into the fire. Overall though, the odds seem a little rich for a team relying on a 43-year-old signal-caller.

Atlanta Falcons (+900, +2500, +5000)

The Falcons are hanging their offensive hopes on a line that is all returning but couldn’t stay healthy a year ago. If they get a little bit luckier in that department, there could be more balance this year. To that end, a lesser training camp could actually help new acquisition Todd Gurley’s balky knee in the long run.





Atlanta could have several rookies in the starting lineup on defense. Because of this offseason, the inevitable growing pains they endure might last a little longer than usual. As a result, the Falcons are a team to avoid in the futures market and against the spread in the early part of the year.

Carolina Panthers (+1600, +7500, +15000)

The amount of turnover that the Panthers has undergone in the last few seasons has been massive. This year they’ll inaugurate a new coach, two new coordinators, and a new quarterback. And the defense loses its signature player in Luke Kuechly.

All that means that it looks like the Panthers right now are Christian McCaffrey and not a lot else. With a patchwork defense, it’s unlikely Teddy Bridgewater can game-manage this team to wins. This could be one of the worst teams in the league all year long.

NFC West

San Francisco (+130, +550, +1000)

The San Francisco 49ers suffered some big losses from their NFC Championship team, but they were proactive about filling in the gaps. Left tackle Joe Staley retired, so the Niners traded for all-pro Trent Williams. They lost defensive line stalwart Brentson Buckner, so they drafted Javon Kinlaw in the first round.





One hit they were not expected to take was the loss of Deebo Samuel, who made a splash as a rookie receiver but is probably looking at an early-season PUP list stint due to a foot injury. Remember that Emanuel Sanders was also jettisoned. Suddenly, the options for Jimmy Garoppolo in the passing game look severely limited beyond George Kittle.

Seattle (+190, +1000, +2000)

Even though, numbers-wise, there are a lot of new faces on the Seahawks’ projected roster, this team should have the same strengths and weakness as it did a year ago entering the season. On offense, Russell Wilson cures a lot of ills, and he might have the best receiving corps with him since he entered the league. The running game will be robust as long as Chris Carson comes back healthy.

Where the Seahawks needed to see more impactful turnover was on defense. This is a group that lacks star talent beyond veteran linebacker Bobby Wagner. And the secondary could be in more trouble if off-field issues derail new cornerback Quinton Dunbar from suiting up.

Los Angeles Rams (+500, +3300, +6000)

The Rams backed themselves into a salary-cap corner and are going to have to pay for it this year. On defense, there are all kinds of changes going on around standouts Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey. New coordinator Brandon Staley will be tasked with pulling it all together in a hurry.





Todd Gurley and Brandin Cooks are gone from the offense. When the Rams soared two years ago, it was because they had a balanced attack. Yet they’ll be relying on two running backs, Darrell Henderson and Cam Akers, with precious little game reps to try to provide that balance.

Arizona (+525, +5000, +10000)

With a player as good as DeAndre Hopkins, you don’t care too much about continuity. The hope in Arizona is that he becomes the missing piece to lock the offense into gear. If Kenyan Drake improves now that he’s had an offseason with the team, albeit a truncated one, Arizona could be a feared offense.

Perhaps the key addition to the defense is rookie Isaiah Simmons. Because of is unique versatility, it hurts the Cards that they can’t get a good look at how to use him in preseason games. That could keep this defense from hitting its peak in the early part of this year.

Conclusion

We hope this discussion on continuity helps with your wagers at NFL betting websites. It is shaping up to be an NFL season like no other. Hopefully, you now have a better grasp of what to expect so that you can make your bets with a little bit more confidence.