Earlier this offseason, Jim Irsay said the Indianapolis Colts were a quarterback away from the Super Bowl. Just a few weeks later, the Colts traded for ex-Philadelphia Eagles QB Carson Wentz.
The Colts trading for a QB this offseason was hardly a surprise. With Philip Rivers having retired and Jacoby Brissett set to hit the free-agent market, Indy had no choice but to look outside the organization for a replacement. The acquisition of Wentz means the Colts are unlikely to spend a premium pick on a QB in the upcoming draft. Indy had been linked with some of the bigger names in the class, including Justin Fields, Trey Lance, Mac Jones, and Zach Wilson.
If you’re looking to bet on the Colts to win the Super Bowl in 2021, or even to encroach on their over-under, today’s post is a must-read.
Let’s inspect the variables.
Who’s the Quarterback?
The Indianapolis Colts aren’t a quarterback away from winning the Super Bowl, or even the AFC.
However, they’re a good game managing quarterback away from contending to knock the Kansas City Chiefs off of their two-season pedestal as AFC Champions.
It really depends on which version of Wentz shows up. While he isn’t a lock to win the starting job out of camp, you don’t trade for a guy like Wentz without hoping he’s your guy moving forward. There is an outside possibility the Colts could still sniff around on Deshaun Watson, but trading for two QBs in one offseason seems rather unlikely.
So, Wentz is likely the QB1. On a team like the Colts, he may not be asked to do too much. They’re built to win the game in the old-fashioned, run the ball and stop the run mentality.
The following section provides scenarios featuring the trading for 3 different quarterbacks on the trading block this offseason. Wentz is the favorite to be the starter, but Indy will likely remain in the hunt for some competition at the position. Wentz, Jacob Eason, and Jalen Morton are the only QBs on the current roster.
But as the further sections show, it will still take more than just mistake-free play at quarterback for this team to become a solid futures bet. Especially with the Tennessee Titans playing in the same division.
Let’s look at the potential quarterbacks before we go further.
Futures Outlook per Quarterback
Wentz could revive his stagnant career in Indianapolis because he knows coach Frank Reich’s offense. For Wentz, the move to Indianapolis is nothing more than a change of scenery. He’ll be reunited with his old offensive coordinator, and the Colts are banking on that being enough to help the former No. 2 overall pick live up to his potential.
The Houston Texans Claim They’re Not Interested in Trading Deshaun Watson
It’s a smokescreen. And while it’s unlikely the Texans will trade such a high-caliber player within the division, it’s also unlikely they’ll reject an offer they can’t refuse. The chances of Watson landing in Indy are slim to none, and Slim just caught a bus out of town. Even so, don’t be surprised if the Texans strike a deal with the Colts if the latter offers the right bargain.
Sam Darnold is another name. Darnold, who has spent 3 subpar years with the New York Jets, has shown enough flashes to get it done. No, he clearly won’t elevate talent around him. But if you insert him in as a puzzle piece, Darnold may threaten to become a top 15 quarterback in the league.
Jacoby Brissett is another option. He knows the offense and was the team’s full-time starter in 2019. He has a big arm, but he boasts a conservative playing style. Like Darnold, Brissett can thrive if given weapons around him. The Colts may look into bringing him back as a backup, but there’s also a chance he earns a starting spot somewhere else.
Then, there are the Big Five. The Colts can trade up to snag one of them, even if it’s no secret Trevor Lawrence is likely headed to the Jacksonville Jaguars with the first pick. Unless his labrum repair scares them off, which is not probable.
That leaves Zach Wilson, Trey Lance, Justin Fields, and Mac Jones. Unfortunately, there’s a drop off in talent here behind Lawrence. Lance is coming from the FCS level. Wilson only had one good season at BYU.
Jones is the product of a dominant Alabama Crimson Tide team. And defenses figured out Fields over the latter portion of the truncated college football season.
None of the above are legitimate franchise quarterback options capable of taking a team places. Instead, it’ll be the team taking them places, as the following sections will outline. The Colts could move for one of those guys if they don’t believe Wentz is their future at the position, but it still looks rather unlikely that they draft a QB with a premium selection.
Defense Wins Championships
The Colts reverted to a rather old school uniform in 2020, if you noticed the subtle changes with the wordmark and numbering font. And their playing style reflected the change back to old school.
Let’s Look at a Few Numbers:
The Colts finished 8th overall in total defense, and 11 in points allowed, having allowed 362 points. They also tied for 4th in takeaways with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. They ranked 2nd in rushing defense, behind just the Buccaneers, and allowed just 3.7 yards per carry.
The Colts forced opponents to pass on them. And while their pass defense didn’t look hot, it remains as the only actual hole to fill on a talented defense. The Colts also lack a legitimate edge rusher.
So going back to the quarterbacks in the above sections, the Colts can benefit from building around what many teams refer to as the face of their franchise. With Wentz likely leading the offense, continuing to stack the defense will help.
Even if such a strategy seems counterintuitive.
Better yet, the Colts also boasted a solid running game on offense. And as mentioned, their rushing defense was the second-best in football. This further adds to the team’s old school mentality of winning games by running the ball, stopping the run, and passing when necessary.
Wentz has shown major upside in the past, but Indy really only needs him to manage the offense. Now that they have their presumptive QB, expect them to spend most of their draft capital on the defensive side of the ball. The Colts largely passed on signing big-name free agents, so there are a few areas of need that need to be addressed.
Sure, it goes against the grain in today’s game. But do we need to be reminded after the events of Super Bowl LV that defenses still win championships? Even in a supposedly quarterback-driven league?
I think not. And watch the Colts mimic the blueprint.
Trouble at the Skill Positions
Okay, so let’s assume the Colts have Wentz in place along with solid puzzle pieces on defense.
They still need to upgrade the skill positions to deliver that final knockout punch to opponents. But before we talk about the team needing improvement,
Let’s Look at This Fact:
The Indianapolis Colts own a fantastic running back committee and arguably the best group of run blockers in football. Once again, it only supports the argument for the game managing quarterback that can take this team to the top.
The Colts will still need a solid group of receivers and tight ends to draw the opposition away from the old school, run-heavy offense.
And the Colts lack pass catchers all over the place. Parris Campbell has been a bust. Michael Pittman Jr. was so-so in his rookie season. And not a single tight end on the present roster boasts much of a threat in the passing game.
T.Y. Hilton is a free agent, and Mo-Alie Cox is a restricted free agent that improved throughout last season but, is he a true TE1? To prevent opposing defenses from stacking the line in 2021, the Colts must have a game plan in place to remind teams that they too boast a solid pass catching unit. Again, the clear upside is that the Colts have good backs in Nyheim Hines, Jonathan Taylor, and the recently re-signed Marlon Mack.
Obviously, the clear downside is the fact that this team, right now, has a receiving unit about as talented as an expansion team. And that can drain their legitimacy as a solid futures bet.
Conclusion
The Colts are well on their way now that Wentz is officially in the fold.
But they must sign a few key defensive puzzle pieces in free agency, or at least draft a few in April. Plus, this is a team in dire need of pass catchers no matter where you look on the field.
Their first and obvious priority, however, is to get that quarterback. And given the identity of their offense, a game manager is all they need.
What are your thoughts on the Colts?
Do they make for a good NFL futures bet, or are they still at least a year away from you putting your money on them?
Michael Stevens
Michael Stevens has been researching and writing topics involving the gambling industry for well over a decade now and is considered an expert on all things casino and sports betting. Michael has been writing for GamblingSites.org since early 2016. …
