Is Card Counting a Waste of Your Time?

Card counting is one of the few ways to win profits from casinos. It has been around for decades and has made many gamblers wealthy.

These days, card counting is easier to learn than ever before. You can find a wide range of resources on the subject and quickly study the basics within 15 minutes or so.

The downside to all of this public information, though, is that casinos are very aware of how to catch card counters. They’ve refined their methods for rooting out advantage gamblers.

Therefore, you’ll have a tougher time counting cards than ever before. You might even find yourself getting thrown out of casinos again and again.

I’m going to discuss if counting cards and getting away with it is realistic for most players. Furthermore, I’ll advise you on whether or not this method is even worth your time.

How Does Card Counting Work?

Blackjack features dozens of card counting systems that vary based on their complexity and proposed house edge. If you’re just starting out, though, then you can’t do any better than the Hi-Lo. It offers the perfect mix of a solid advantage and simple structure.

The first thing you should know is the different card groupings that you’re counting. These groups, along with their associated values, include:

• High cards (A through 10) = -1
• Neutral cards (7 through 9 = 0
• Low cards (2 through 6) = +1

To successfully count cards, you need to count everything that comes out of the shoe. You’re looking for a positive count (more high cards than low cards) so that you stand better odds of:

• Getting a natural blackjack (21 on first two cards)
• The dealer busting out (more high cards make them bust frequently)

Your count throughout an entire shoe is called the “running count.” You want to convert the latter into a true count to factor in the multi-deck shoes that are so common today.

Here’s an example on doing so:

• Running count is +6.
• You estimate that three decks remain in the shoe.
• 6 / 3 = +2 true count

The final step to successful card counting involves deciding when to increase your bets. You want to only risk the table minimum until a positive count comes along.

At this point, you need to increase your wagers to take advantage of the positive count. Here’s a good method for doing so:

• Determine the table’s minimum bet (e.g. $5).
• Select a unit size that’s 5x the minimum bet (e.g. $25).
• Figure out the true count (e.g. +4).
• Subtract 1 from the count (4 – 1 = 3).
• Multiply this your unit size by this number (25 x 3 = 75)
• You should bet 3 units ($75) per hand.

The distance between the table minimum and increased wagers is known as the “bet spread.” You should avoid getting too crazy with bet spreads so that the pit boss is less likely to watch you.

The example above shows a 1-15 spread which, in many cases, is about the maximum you can get away with. Jumping from the minimum bet to anything higher sends up a quick red flag.

Of course, everything regarding bet spreads can vary from casino to casino. You definitely want to choose establishments that are known for allowing larger spreads before bringing the heat.

Why Is Card Counting so Popular?

Card counting isn’t the only way to beat the casino. Hole carding and shuffle tracking are two more methods that can earn you profits.

However, counting cards is definitely the most famous way to beat the house. Here are a few reasons why people are so fascinated with this advantage play strategy.

Win Profits Over Time

Counting cards shares one thing in common with other legitimate advantage gambling methods: it provides guaranteed profits over time.

“Over time” is the key phrase here. This strategy doesn’t guarantee winnings in the short term, but it does deliver profits in the long run when performed correctly.

How much you win with card counting depends upon various factors, including the game rules, your skill level, and deck penetration. Under reasonable circumstances, though, you can look forward to winnings.

Relatively Easy

Card counting has a huge advantage compared to other types of advantage play in that it’s quite easy to learn. The section covered before shows the basics of what you must know to consistently beat blackjack.

Of course, you do need to practice in order to perfectly execute your counting strategy. After all, the casino is filled with plenty of distractions.

But you don’t need an MIT or Harvard degree to learn the basics. Instead, you just need a short amount of time to study the fundamentals and be willing to put lots of time into mastering the craft.

Chance to Make a Living With Gambling

Casinos have grown bigger and bigger because they win. They hold an advantage in almost every situation and earn big profits on a daily basis.

Not surprisingly, casino gaming doesn’t offer you many chances to make a living. Card counting represents one of the rare ways to earn a full-time living through gambling.

How good of a living you can make depends upon multiple factors, including your skills, bankroll, and teammates (if applicable). The key point, though, is that you can win profits with this strategy if you’re willing to put the work in.

Don’t Forget the Downsides to Card Counting

Beating gambling is never easy, otherwise, everybody would be doing it. Card counting comes with its own set of challenges that make it difficult to beat. You can see the biggest drawbacks to counting cards below.

Small Edge Over the House

The general public mistakenly assumes that card counters enjoy a lofty advantage over casinos. In reality, though, even the best counters only have a small edge.

Even if you get great at counting, you’ll only hold between a 0.5% and 1.5% advantage over casinos. You can increase your profits by learning shuffle tracking on top of counting.

Counting alone, however, isn’t going to bring you huge wins every night. Instead, it merely provides a small advantage that you can use to eventually win profits.

Makes Blackjack More Volatile

The main point of card counting is to figure out an advantageous point to raise bets. By increasing wagers when you have an advantage, you’ll reap rewards in the long run.

As mentioned before, though, you only have a small edge over the casino. Therefore, you’ll walk out of the door a loser almost as many times as you will a winner.

Even with a 1% advantage, you could easily lose money in a given session. Sometimes, you’ll lose big!

You don’t face the same volatility when flat betting and using basic strategy. That said, you assume more risk when counting cards.

No Guarantees

Nothing is guaranteed in gambling, even when you have an edge. Card counting isn’t the get-rich-quick scheme that movies like 21 make it out to be.

Instead, you really need to develop your skills so that you can properly execute strategy in casinos. Furthermore, you also need a large bankroll to withstand the ups and downs.

Many beginning card counters make the crucial mistake of starting with too little money. As a solo counter, you’ll probably want at least $10,000 or $12,000 to survive the variance.

Should You Bother With Advantage Play?

You can see that card counting isn’t a slam-dunk way to make money. In fact, many gamblers have had their butts handed to them due to the rough volatility and quick speed of blackjack games.

You really need to consider what your goals are when embarking on this pursuit. Here are some questions to ask yourself:

• Are you just hoping to make a few profits while enjoying blackjack?
• Do you have dreams of becoming a professional player?
• Are you merely trying counting for fun?
• Do you want to join a team and win serious money?
• Will you add another method, such as shuffle tracking, to the mix?

The vast majority of people who set out to be card counters crash and burn. Advantage gambling is a tough pursuit that can cause serious losses.

Moreover, real money online casinos are really good at catching advantage players and throwing them out. You have to be really good to avoid this fate and keep taking advantage of the same casinos.

Nothing is impossible, though. If you really want to beat gambling and are willing to dedicate lots of time and money to the matter, then counting cards is one of your best options.

Conclusion

Card counting is by no means an easy way to make money. First, you must get good enough at this method to consistently beat blackjack.

Next, you have to work on camouflaging techniques to mask your advantage play. This process involves looking and acting the part while counting.

Even after getting really good, you still need to worry about savvy pit bosses throwing you out. Ultimately, you must decide if counting cards is really worth the effort.

You can win money with this technique. Assuming a gambling career is really important to you, then card counting is one of the few ways to make it happen.