KBO Betting Picks and Odds for May 6th

The bats were out in the KBO on Wednesday. Three teams scored at least 12 runs, with the Kiwoom Heroes stomping the KT Wiz 14-0, while SSG Landers outlasted the NC Dinos in a 13-12 shootout.

The current series will come to a close on Thursday with another five matchups. You can bet on the KBO every single day over at MyBookie, so let’s dive right back in.

KT Wiz at Kiwoom Heroes

Kiwoom absolutely demolished William Cuevas and the KT Wiz in a two-touchdown laugher on Wedneseday. Cuevas was crused for 10 earned runs on 10 hits in his 4.2 innings of work, with Woong-bin Kim accounting for three homers and five RBI in the rout for the Heroes.

It’s only one game, of course, and you don’t lose anything other than your dignity when you lose by 14 runs. KT can salvage a split in the two-game series with Young-pyo Ko on the mound Thursday. Hyun-hee Han goes for Kiwoom, and the Wiz are listed as -131 moneyline favorites at MyBookie.

Ko posted ERAs over 5.00 in each of his first four years in the league, but he has looked much better this season after returning from military service. The right-hander is off to a 3-1 start with a 3.48 ERA so far this season, and he hasn’t allowed more than three earned runs in either game. Ko struck out a season-high eight in his last start in a win over Kia. Ko allowed a couple of runs on five hits and picked up the win when he last faced Kiwoom on April 18.

Han has a 4.96 ERA so far this season, which is a bit worse than his career mark of 4.27. Han has allowed exactly three runs in each of his first three starts this season, and this is just his second campaign as a full-time member of the Heroes’ starting rotation. This will already be his second start of the year against KT after he surrendered three runs on three hits in 6.1 innings back on April 16.

This one is basically a toss-up with a pair of decent pitchers going toe-to-toe, but I like the Wiz to claim this one as -131 road favorites. Offensive explosions have been hard to come by for Kiwoom so far this season, so Wednesday’s outburst was likely more anomalous than the beginning of a trend.

LG Twins at Doosan Bears

The Twins toppled the Bears 7-4 on the road last night behind a decent start out of Casey Kelly. Both starting pitchers in that game were a bit more wobbly than they have been for most of the year, as the Twins became the first team all season to get to Doosan right-hander Walker Lockett.

Tonight’s game pits a pair of former big leaguers against one another. The Bears are +110 underdogs at home behind lefty Ariel Miranda, while the Twins are -153 favorites with Andrew Suarez on the mound.

Suarez has been excellent in his maiden campaign in the KBO. The left-hander has a sparkling 1.23 ERA through five starts and a 3-1 record. His lone loss of the year came against this same Doosan team, however, when he allowed three runs on five hits in just three innings back on April 17. That was by far Suarez’s worst game in a Twins uniform, however, as he has allowed just one earned run total across his other four games.

Miranda has been almost as good. Miranda is 4-0 with a 1.85 ERA to this point, and he held the Twins scoreless in five innings with seven punchouts the last time he saw them last month. Miranda did endure one rocky start against the NC Dinos, but his game log looks awfully similar to that of Suarez. Miranda has given up just one earned run in his other four starts against Samsung, KT, LG, and SSG.

We didn’t see any pitcher’s duels last night, but I think we get one here. The Bears picked up a 9-1 win the last time Suarez and Miranda squared off in the same game, but most of that damage was done against the LG bullpen. I’d bet the under on 7.5 runs here with a couple of ace-caliber lefties on the hill.

Samsung Lions at Hanwha Eagles

Hanwha suffered a 4-1 setback at home last night as the Samsung Lions stay hot. Ryan Carpenter was predictably great, holding Samsung scoreless in seven innings of work, but the Lions put eight runs on the board in the eighth as soon as he left the game. Hanwha failed to dent the scoreboard against Ben Lively to fall to 11-15 on the year.

The Eagles will seek to get back into the win column on Thursday with Dong-hyun Bae on the mound. The Lions will counter with Jung-hyun Baek. MyBookie has the Lions as -185 road favorites in a game with an 8.5-run over/under.

Baek yielded five runs on nine hits against the Dinos in his last start, and the left-hander has been one of the most hittable pitchers in the KBO for most of his career. Baek does have a solid 3.81 ERA through his first five starts of 2021, but his 4.88 career ERA suggests some regression should be expected.

Bae is a 23-year-old in his first season in the KBO. The rookie has impressed in three games out of the bullpen this season, but this will be his first career start. The right-hander has a 2.08 ERA thus far, but it’s hard to glean too much from that in just 8.2 innings of work. Bae has topped out at 69 pitches in a game so far this season, so the Eagles will likely have to rely heavily on the bullpen to carry them through this one.

I like Samsung here. Baek is no ace, but he has also established himself as a reliable back-end starter for the Lions. The Eagles are probably the worst team in the KBO again this season, so betting against Hanwha is typically a profitable endeavor. Back Baek and Samsung at -185.

Kia Tigers at Lotte Giants

The Kia Tigers improved to 13-13 on the year with an 8-5 win over Lotte in last night’s game. The Tigers’ bats surprisingly had some success against Lotte ace Dan Straily, who uncharacteristically surrendered five runs on nine hits in five shaky innings of work. Daniel Mengden pitched well enough on the other side of the matchup to earn his second win of the year.

Enderson Franco is set to take another turn for the Giants, while Eui-lee Lee starts for the Tigers. MyBookie likes Franco and the Giants here as -151 moneyline favorites.

Franco turned in a disastrous start in which he conceded eight runs a couple of outings ago against Samsung, but he has looked good for most of the year. The KBO rookie is only 1-1 with a 4.18 ERA, but he has allowed exactly one earned run in back-to-back starts. Franco may not be quite as good as one of the other former MLBers now populating KBO rotations, but he has been a nice addition early on for Lotte.

Lee is another pitcher in good early-season form. The southpaw is 1-0 with a 2.42 ERA through four games, and he’s fresh off of six shutout innings against the Eagles in his most recent start. We don’t have a huge sample of the 18-year-old’s work as a rookie in the league, but Kia has to be impressed by how the youngster has fared early in his career.

The over/under of 9.5 runs doesn’t show a whole lot of faith in either of these pitchers being as good as their early-season numbers may indicate. I think this is a pretty solid spot to bet that under, though, especially at the attractive -113 odds. Lee and Franco are both relative unknowns, but we can use that to our advantage here. Bet the under in Giants-Tigers.

SSG Landers at NC Dinos

NC’s Drew Rucinski was another ace that struggled on Wednesday night. The Dinos’ reliable right-hander was blasted for seven runs on seven hits along with seven walks in just four innings of work in a wild 13-12 loss to SSG Landers. Won-seok Oh wasn’t much more effective for SSG, but the Landers were still able to come away victorious despite a late rally from NC.

We’ll see what both offenses have in store for tonight’s rematch at Changwon NC Park. Min-hyeok Shin is set to get the ball for the Dinos, while Jong-hun Park goes for SSG. The Dinos are rare home underdogs here, however, with SSG a -136 moneyline favorite on the road.

Shin is set to make his third start and eighth overall appearance of the year. The righty has won both of his starts so far this season, and he held Samsung scoreless in six innings of work in his last outing. This guy pitched to a 5.79 ERA as a rookie last year, so his 3.00 mark to begin 2021 is a bit of a surprise. Based on the odds, though, the best sportsbooks online aren’t buying into Shin’s early-season success.

Park is 2-1 through five starts so far this season with a 2.48 ERA. That’s far better than his career 4.58 mark, but he hasn’t posted an ERA north of 5.00 since 2016. This guy has been a workhorse for SSG so far this season, with at least 101 pitches thrown in each of his last four games.

The Dinos haven’t been nearly as explosive with the bats this season as they were during their title run last year, but I still like the idea of getting a team this good as a home underdog. We won’t have those opportunities very often as the season wears on, so I’m fine with taking a stab at the Dinos’ -101 moneyline odds in this one.