March Madness Sweet 16 Pick: Oregon State vs Loyola Chicago

Raise your hand if you expected to see Oregon State taking on Loyola Chicago in the Sweet 16 this year. Yeah, I didn’t think so.

While your bracket has presumably been busted for quite some time now, the NCAA Tournament rolls on this weekend. Oregon State, the No. 12 seed in the Midwest Region, will take on Loyola Chicago, the No. 8 seed. The Ramblers ousted top-seeded Illinois in the second round last weekend, while the Beavers have carried their momentum from the Pac-12 tournament into the Big Dance.

Oddsmakers like the more experienced Loyola Chicago in this one. Online betting sites that offer odds on March Madness have the Ramblers as 6.5-point favorites in a game with a 125.5 over/under.

Moneyline Betting Odds

Team
Loyola Chicago	-305
Oregon State	+255

Spread Betting Odds

Team
Loyola Chicago	-7 -110
Oregon State	+7 -110

Over/Under Betting Odds

Team
Loyola Chicago	O 125 -110
Oregon State	U 125 -110

Ramblers Feeling Confident

Loyola Chicago is in familiar territory. Let’s not forget that this same small program made a Cinderella run to the Final Four back in 2018. While most of that team has since graduated, the Ramblers are still led by star big man Cameron Krutwig. Krutwig, who was a freshman on the Final Four squad, is now one of the team’s senior leaders.

Krutwig led the Ramblers with averages of 15 points and 6.9 rebounds per game during the regular season. The Fighting Illini had no answer for him in the last round, as the Algonquin native finished with 19 points, 12 rebounds, five assists, and four steals in a stellar all-around effort. Loyola was able to keep the high-octane Illini offense at bay for the vast majority of the game. Illinois turned the ball over 17 times and shot just 28.6 percent from three-point range last weekend.

Missouri Valley Conference POY Cameron Krutwig was big time in Loyola Chicago’s upset win 💪

🏀 19 Pts

🏀 12 Reb

🏀 5 Ast

🏀 4 Stl pic.twitter.com/ySYsAOZXxj

— ESPN (@espn) March 21, 2021

Loyola went 26-4 this season, and most believe the committee gave them a raw deal with a No. 8 seed in the Midwest Region. In the end, it was Illinois that got the raw deal. Loyola is clearly one of the best all-around teams in the country, and those two likely should’ve met well after the second round. Regardless, the Ramblers are the ones still alive in search of their second Final Four appearance in four years.

Loyola finished with the fourth-best defense in the country this season. The Ramblers allowed just 86.4 points per 100 possessions. While they did benefit from some weak competition in the Missouri Valley Conference, just ask Illinois whether they’re legitimate on that end of the floor. Loyola was also 22nd in America in offense, averaging 108.7 points per 100 possessions.

After their win over Illinois, Krutwig said the team has the confidence to beat any team on any night. The star big man said, “That’s the great thing about us; we can adapt to any style of play, really, and you can’t not think that you’re one of the best teams in the country.” Krutwig added that the team has “the confidence to go out and play and beat anybody.”

Beavers Looking for The Upset

Oregon State finished the season just 19-12, and few thought the Beavers would be much of a threat in the Pac-12 tournament. However, Oregon State has gotten hot at the perfect time. The Beavers got past a trio of March Madness teams in UCLA, Oregon, and Colorado to win the Pac-12 tourney. They haven’t let up since, with back-to-back wins over No. 5 Tennessee and No. 4 Oklahoma State to advance to the Sweet Sixteen.

Ethan Thompson has been unstoppable. The Beavers’ leading scorer, who averaged 15.6 points per game during the regular season, poured in a team-high 26 points in the round of 32 win over Okie State. Thompson outdueled the Cowboys’ Cade Cunningham, who is expected to be the No. 1 pick in the NBA draft later this year.

Ethan Thompson scored 26 points and No. 12 seed Oregon State neutralized Oklahoma State and star freshman Cade Cunningham, rolling to an upset in the second round of #MarchMadness.https://t.co/l6zvW5ADuT

— Sportsnet (@Sportsnet) March 22, 2021

Oregon State has been shooting the lights out over the course of their hot streak. The Beavers’ lone loss over their last nine games was a tough defeat against Oregon toward the end of the regular season, and Oregon State still shot nearly 52 percent from the field in that one. Oregon State wasn’t a particularly dynamic offensive team during the season, though, which makes their recent run feel a bit anomalous. The Beavers finished just 216th in America in effective field goal percentage (48.9 percent) and 101st in offensive rating (102.5 points per 100 possessions).

What’s the Best Bet?

If the Ramblers can play anywhere close to as well as they did against Illinois last week, they’re going to be incredibly difficult to beat. Loyola has an excellent against-the-spread record of 18-9-1 so far this season, and they have covered in each of their last eight games. The Ramblers have lost just one game since mid-January, which was a one-point loss to Drake back on Valentine’s Day.

Oregon State (21-9-1) has been even more impressive against the spread. The Beavers have benefited from a string of upsets after finishing just sixth in the Pac-12 regular-season standings. Oregon State has covered in each of their last five games, and they’re 2-0 so far in the tournament despite entering both games as betting underdogs.

While the Beavers have enjoyed a nice run, it has to come to an end at some point. Loyola Chicago may not be sneaking up on their opponents the same way they did back in 2018, but don’t underestimate this team because of its underwhelming seed. The Ramblers are a legitimate championship threat, and I like their chances of taking care of business in this one. Bet Loyola to win and cover on Saturday.