Pick: Baylor -7.5
Odds: -113
$100 Could Win You…$188.50
The 2021 NCAA Tournament has been unpredictable, even by March Madness standards. We’re used to seeing upsets every March, but this year’s tourney has seen quite a few unexpected twists and turns. So, we can look forward to another wild weekend ahead with the Sweet Sixteen set to get underway on Saturday.
Moneyline Betting Odds: Villanova vs Baylor
| Team |
|
|---|---|
| Baylor | -360 |
| Villanova | +290 |
Spread Betting Odds: Villanova vs Baylor
| Team |
|
|---|---|
| Baylor | -7.5 -110 |
| Villanova | +7.5 -110 |
Over/Under Betting Odds: Villanova vs Baylor
| Team |
|
|---|---|
| Baylor | O 142.5 -105 |
| Villanova | U 142.5 -115 |
Three of the four No. 1 seeds are still alive, however. That includes Baylor, who will look to advance to the Elite Eight on Saturday afternoon. The Bears will have to get past a Villanova program that has won two of the last four NCAA championships. This year’s Wildcats squad isn’t the best we’ve seen under Jay Wright, but we know Nova tends to show up in March.
The Bears are sizable favorites in this one. The online sportsbook BetOnline has Baylor listed at -7.5 in a game with an over/under of 141.5 points.
Easy Road for Nova
While every team in the NCAA Tournament deserves to be a part of the field, Villanova has still enjoyed a pretty easy route to the Sweet Sixteen. The Wildcats survived a bit of a scare in the first round before ultimately enjoying a 10-point win over No. 12 Winthrop. Then, the Wildcats easily stormed past No. 13 North Texas by 23 points in the round of 32.
Villanova’s easy path came in part to their lackluster finish to the regular season. Nova was dumped down to a No. 5 seed in the South Region after losing three of their last four games, including a one-point loss to Georgetown in the Big East tournament. The selection committee clearly thought less of Villanova after star guard Collin Gillespie came down with a knee injury late in the campaign.
In the first two rounds of the #NCAATournament, Justin Moore ’19 is averaging 15 points, 3.5 assists and 3.5 rebounds! Villanova will take on top seed Baylor in next weekend’s Sweet 16. pic.twitter.com/ubj7YetVrX
— DeMathaHighSchool (@DeMathaCatholic) March 22, 2021
Unfortunately for the Wildcats, the easy road ends here with a matchup with Baylor. The Bears will be the most daunting opponent Villanova has faced all season long by a pretty healthy margin. Justin Moore has filled in admirably for the injured Gillespie, but the sophomore’s lack of experience could be tested here against Baylor. The Wildcats will also have to lean heavily on leading scorer Jeremiah Robinson-Earl to try and keep pace with the Bears’ high-octane offensive attack.
Moore has played well in the tournament to this point. The Maryland native has scored exactly 15 points in each of the first two games while committing just one total turnover. Saturday’s matchup is a tough one, though, as he’ll likely be squaring off against Davion Mitchell. Mitchell is one of the best on-ball defenders in the nation, so we’ll see whether Moore is up to the challenge.
High-Flying Bears
Baylor has lost just two games all year. Scott Drew has built one of the best programs in America around a lethal offensive attack. Baylor plays a modern style predicated on shooting a high percentage from long range. The Bears scored 116.5 points per 100 possessions during the regular season, which ranked second in the country behind Gonzaga. The Bears were also the most accurate three-point shooting team in America, canning a whopping 41.5 percent of their looks from deep.
It’s just hard for other teams to keep up. In addition to his defensive prowess, Mitchell is also a serviceable offensive weapon. The junior guard averaged 14.1 points and 5.4 assists during the regular season, and he put 16 points with eight assists on the board in the round of 32 win over Wisconsin. Jared Butler (16.9 points) and MaCio Teague (16.3) join Mitchell to form arguably the most talented backcourt in all of college basketball.
In the first two rounds of the #NCAATournament, Justin Moore ’19 is averaging 15 points, 3.5 assists and 3.5 rebounds! Villanova will take on top seed Baylor in next weekend’s Sweet 16. pic.twitter.com/ubj7YetVrX
— DeMathaHighSchool (@DeMathaCatholic) March 22, 2021
Baylor went 16-10 against the spread during the regular season, while Villanova was 13-10-1 ATS. The Bears have covered in six of their last seven games overall. The only non-cover was their 83-74 setback to Oklahoma State in the Big 12 tournament semifinals. Nova has covered in just three of their last six games, though they did cover the spread in each of their first two games in the tournament.
What’s the Best Bet?
This is just a serious mismatch on paper. Villanova is missing its best facilitator in Gillespie, and I’m not convinced that Moore is ready to step into that role under the bright lights of the tournament. He’ll have his hands full against Mitchell, and it’s hard to imagine the Wildcats having enough offensive firepower to keep up in this one.
Baylor has been a bit more wobbly in the latter stages of the season, but it would be quite the surprise to see an undermanned Villanova squad pull the upset here. Take Baylor to pick up th win and cover in the process.
Taylor Smith
Taylor Smith has been a staff writer with GamblingSites.org since early 2017. Taylor is primarily a sports writer, though he will occasionally dabble in other things like politics and entertainment betting. His primary specialties are writing about the NBA, Major League Baseball, NFL and domestic and international soccer. Fringe sports like golf and horse racing aren’t exactly his cup of tea, bu …
