Pick: Under 230 points
Odds: -110
$100 Could Win You…$190.91
The Milwaukee Bucks and New Orleans Pelicans appear to be trending in opposite directions. The Bucks have spent the past couple of seasons desperately attempting to win a title with Giannis Antetokounmpo on the fold. The Pelicans are in the midst of a rebuild, though some believe they already have enough talent to make some legitimate noise in the Western Conference.
These two teams are also inextricably linked after doing some business together during the offseason. In a bid to improve the team’s short-term prospects while also keeping Antetokounmpo happy, the Bucks parted ways with Eric Bledsoe and a bevy of future first-round picks to pry Jrue Holiday out of New Orleans. Holiday has instantly proven to be a useful fit in Milwaukee, while Bledsoe has had a tougher time with the Pelicans. Tonight’s matchup will be the first meeting between the teams since the trade.
The Bucks are listed as 7-point favorites here in a game with an over/under of 230 points.
Milwaukee Cruising
The Bucks didn’t exactly get off to a flying start to the season, but they have looked much better since. The Bucks enter this game on a two-game winning streak and winners of six of their last eight games overall. Milwaukee’s 11-6 record on the season isn’t nearly as impressive as last year’s 24-3 start, but this team isn’t trying to rack up wins during the regular season. They should know by now to save their best for the playoffs.
Mike Budenholzer’s bunch has been one of the best offensive teams in the league since his arrival a couple of years ago. Nothing has changed so far in 2020-21. Milwaukee enters tonight’s game with the most efficient offense in the NBA, averaging 114.9 points per 100 possessions. That’s a pretty stark improvement on last year’s average of 110.5. Khris Middleton has picked up some extra slack so far this season, while Holiday is simply a better offensive player than Bledsoe. Their improvement in that regard isn’t a huge surprise given the personnel here.
BUCKS STOCK MARKET GAME 17 (11-6)
Jrue Holiday 📈
Bryn Forbes 📈
Khris Middleton 📈
Giannis Antetokounmpo 📈
Pat Connaughton 📉
Torrey Craig 📈DJ Augustin📈📈📈📈📈📈📈📈📈📈📈📈📈 (some guys on Reddit are driving the price up like crazy)
— Ti Windisch (@TiWindisch) January 28, 2021
The Bucks had the stingiest defense in the league a season ago (100.6), but they have struggled a little more in that regard to begin the new campaign. Milwaukee enters tonight’s game ranked 10th in defensive rating, yielding 107.1 points per 100 possessions. That’s a pretty huge drop-off from where they were last year, but the season is still relatively young. The Lakers have the best D-rating in the league at 102.6, so defense around the league has been a bit more porous so far this term.
Antetokounmpo is coming off of a huge game against Toronto in which he finished with 24 points, 18 rebounds, and nine assists in 38 minutes of work. There’s really no telling who the Pelicans will use defensively against him tonight. Zion Williamson has no chance of dealing with Antetokounmpo’s height, while Brandon Ingram lacks the strength to keep him out of the paint. Giannis scored 34 points and grabbed 17 rebounds in the lone meeting between these teams last season.
Pelicans Searching for Answers
The Pelicans’ decision to hire Stan Van Gundy over the offseason was hailed by many, but the transition hasn’t been smooth for either party thus far. New Orleans is off to a ragged 6-10 start that includes an embarrassing recent loss to a Timberwolves team that was missing both Karl-Anthony Towns and D’Angelo Russell. The Pels’ schedule has been a difficult one for the most part, but the team has been a major disappointment early on.
Williamson takes plenty of heat for his lackluster defense, and rightfully so. However, let’s not forget that this guy is still only 20-years-old, and what he’s doing on the offensive end deserves some praise. Williamson has only played in 39 NBA games entering tonight’s contest. Through those 39 games, he’s averaging better than 23 points on nearly 59 percent shooting from the field. While he isn’t much of a threat outside the paint, he is already one of the most unique offensive weapons in the league.
Zion Williamson is averaging 18.5 points in the paint per game this season.
Over the last 25 seasons, the only player to average more in a season is Shaquille O’Neal (7 times). pic.twitter.com/hRhFrEH8HM
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) January 29, 2021
The Pelicans were one of the fastest teams in the league during the Alvin Gentry era, but Van Gundy has really slowed their pace. New Orleans is just 22nd in the league in pace factor thus far, and it’s worth wondering whether that’s the right approach to take with such a young team. The Pels’ roster is packed with athletic youngsters, so getting out in transition and looking for easy baskets might actually help solve some of their woes.
New Orleans has been one of the worst three-point shooting teams in the league, as well. The Pels have hit just 33.7 percent of their triple tries to this point, which is a woeful 27th in the NBA. Brandon Ingram has shot well from beyond-the-arc, but the Pelicans are still waiting on JJ Redick (29.8 percent), Nicolo Melli (18.8 percent), and Lonzo Ball (30.1 percent) to find their respective strokes.
What’s the Best Bet?
The over/under of 230 in this game looks a bit too optimistic. We know the Bucks have no problem putting the ball in the basket, but the Pelicans aren’t nearly as good of an offensive team as some expected them to be. New Orleans is just 19th in the league in offensive rating. This game has serious blowout potential, as well.
The Pels will try and slow the pace here. If they’re effective in doing so, that will limit the Bucks’ ability to get out into the open court. I’m skeptical that New Orleans will be able to control the tempo considering they’re the lesser team, but I still think the “under” is the play. We can dream that the Pelicans will fully realize their potential, but the reality is that this is just not a particularly good team right now.
I’m inclined to bet Bucks -7, but the better value is taking the under on 230 points.
Bucks at Pelicans Pick
Under 230 points (-110)
Taylor Smith
Taylor Smith has been a staff writer with GamblingSites.org since early 2017. Taylor is primarily a sports writer, though he will occasionally dabble in other things like politics and entertainment betting. His primary specialties are writing about the NBA, Major League Baseball, NFL and domestic and international soccer. Fringe sports like golf and horse racing aren’t exactly his cup of tea, bu …
