MLB Betting Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers vs Philadelphia Phillies

We have another chock-full day of MLB betting action on tap today from afternoon games through night games across the nation.

So, let’s get in on that action as we look at this Brewers vs Phillies MLB Pick from Philadelphia!

Odds	Milwaukee Brewers	Philadelphia Phillies
Moneyline Odds	-131	+121
Runline Odds	-1.5 (+120)	+1.5 (-140)
Over/Under Odds	Over 7 (-105)	Under 7 (-115)

Brewers vs Phillies MLB Pick Breakdown

Brewers

The Brewers nearly mounted a comeback from a 6-1 deficit in last night’s contest but ultimately fell by a 6-5 count, their second consecutive one-run loss to open the series after dropping the opener 4-3 on Monday.

They’ll look to salvage a win here today behind the right-arm of Freddy Peralta who has been fantastic through the first month of the season.

Peralta will enter this one sporting a 2.25 ERA on the young season, but man is that number ever supported. Peralta also owns a 2.31 xERA, 3.00 FIP, 3.33 xFIP and 2.99 SIERA.

He’s had some issues with command in the form of a 4.50 BB/9 on the season, but that’s about the only blip on his radar as he’s racked up punchouts at a whopping 14.46 K/9 and his Statcast metrics are downright fantastic.

According to Statcast, Peralta ranks in the league’s 91st percentile in hard-hit rate, xwOBA and xERa while sitting in the 99th in xBA. Additionally, he’s in the 90th percentile in xSLG, 96th in K-rate and 92nd in whiff rate.

To say Peralta has impressed to the upside after spending much of last season in the bullpen is putting it lightly.

Brewing Up Some Offense?

It would appear the Brewers have the pitching to make a run at the NL Central crown, but the bats have lagged severely in 2021 as they did a season ago as well.

Entering this one, the Brewers rank 22nd with a .299 wOBA on the season, and while they are far from the only team looking for more at the plate, their 27.6% K-rate is the third-highest in the league as they’ve simply wanted too many at-bats and their .154 ISO isn’t going to make up for a .219 average and poor plate discipline.

However, after averaging just 3.1 runs per game over an eight-game stretch, the Brewers bats woke up late last night and nearly generated a comeback. It’s not an outburst per se, but I wonder if that late-game surge has them feeling it a bit entering this one.

They struck out 10 times and scored just one run against Phillies ace Aaron Nola in the first six innings of that one, but got to him early for a run and loaded the bases in the sixth before failing to get anyone home. There’s little room for moral victories in professional sports, but threatening big-time against Nola late before getting to the Phillies bullpen afterwards could give this Brewers offense a spark heading into this one.

Can Milwaukee Figure Out the Formula?

What Milwaukee needs perhaps more than anything right now is for that bullpen to get straightened out as it was supposed to be the team’s strong point here in 2021.

They did a good job in holding the Phillies scoreless in two innings last night, but the Brewers still rank 17th with a 4.20 ERA on the season, but also 25th with a 4.75 FIP.

Their 42.3% hard-hit rate against also ranks 25th, as does their 9.7% barrel rate against to boot. In other words, there just hasn’t been much to like about this group so far. It was supposed to be a deep stable of arms that manager Craig Counsell could trot out there and lock down leads, but too many of those arms are struggling, including 2020 NL Rookie of the Year Devin Williams who owns a 4.22 ERA, but also a 7.59 BB/9, 6.09 xERA and 6.76 FIP.

Closer Josh Hader and his dominant 0.84 ERA/0.95 FIP with a 16.03 K/9 has been good, and the likes of J.P. Feyereisen, Brad Boxberger and Brent Suter have as well, but the remainder of the group has been severely underperforming through the first month and change.

Phillies

In search of the series victory tonight, the Phillies will send right-hander Chase Anderson to the mound as he looks to improve on his work to this point in the young season.

Anderson has made five starts spanning 21.2 innings this season, but will carry a 5.40 ERA into this one. The peripherals back up the poor results as he also owns a 6.57 xERA, 4.82 FIP, 5.16 xFIP and 4.91 SIERA. He’s not missing many bats with a 7.89 K/9 on the season while he’s issued too many free passes with a 4.15 BB/9 on the campaign as well.

The 33-year-old also sports some ugly Statcast data. He ranks in the league’s 10th percentile in xwOBA and xERA, the 16th in xBA, 13th in xSLG, 30th in barrel rate and 31st in hard-hit rate. He’s comfortably within the bottom third of the league at his position this season.

He did work five innings of one-run ball with six strikeouts against the Mets his last time out, so we’ll see if he can build on that effort in this one tonight.

Needing to Right the Course

The Phillies offense has been below average on the whole this season, and while they’re at least approaching league average against left-handed pitching, they’re falling well behind against righties.

Against right-handed pitching, the Phillies rank 24th with a .290 wOBA on the season while hitting for very little power in the form of a .139 ISO that checks in at 24th as well.

The top of their order — save for Bryce Harper who is questionable for this one with a sore wrist and has missed each of the last two games — all fare better against left-handed pitching. We’re talking about Andrew McCutchen, Rhys Hoskins and Alec Bohm, the meat of the Phillies’ lineup.

They’ve been fairly productive of late in averaging 5.25 runs per game over their last four, but they’ve scored 13 runs in two games started against a lefty and just eight against a righty in that time. Previously, the Phillies had averaged just 2.67 runs per game over a six-game stretch, so I’d stop shy of saying this offense is hot entering this one, especially as they get set to face an extremely difficult right-handed pitcher.

Phillies Bullpen

Like the Brewers, the Phillies have not got much out of their bullpen after a hot start to the season.

The Phils’ bullpen will enter this one ranked 25th with a 5.13 ERA on the season, a number that was elevated after yielding four runs in just three innings of work. David Hale was mostly to blame for that as he didn’t retire any of the three batters he faced, all three of which came around to score. Fortunately, Sam Coonrod closed the door with 1.2 innings of scoreless relief, although that outing will surely eliminate him from pitching again in this one, leaving the Phillies without a key back-end reliever for this one.

In addition to that ugly ERA figure, the Phillies’ bullpen also ranks 24th with a 4.71 FIP and 29th with a 1.65 HR/9 to boot. They’re getting hit fairly hard as well with a 21st-ranked 40.5% hard-hit against on the season and their 89.9 mph of average exit velocity against ranks 25th.

With Coonrod seemingly unavailable tonight, Hector Neris would be the only reliable reliever in that bullpen at the moment, and combined with Anderson’s struggles, the pitching situation is not looking favorable for the home side here.

Brewers vs Phillies MLB Pick

At first glance here I was on the Brewers, and the deeper I dive into the numbers the more I am all over the Brewers here.

Regardless of how the Brewers’ bullpen has fared this season, the pitching advantage is in their favor in a big way here, from Peralta over Anderson all the way to the bullpens. A few arms have ruined the Brewers’ overall bullpen numbers, but they at least have four arms in there that have been reliable, while the Phillies have two and now one without Coonrod.

Neither club has hit well and both strike out a lot against righties, but I believe the Brewers’ late-game surge was what they needed to snap out of a lengthy funk. It’s a lineup without Christian Yelich again, but I like their chances with Anderson.

Add it up and I’ll grab the Brewers to come one step closer to evening this series on the moneyline betting option.