MLB Futures: 6 Best Divisional Value Bets for 2021

The NFL season has come and gone, which means it’s finally time to look ahead to baseball season. It’s hard to believe, but pitchers and catchers will begin to report to spring training sites in just a couple of weeks. All 30 big league teams will officially open the 2021 campaign on April 1.

While the season is on the horizon, you still have more than enough time to get your futures bets placed before the games get underway. MLB betting sites, including BetOnline, are beginning to ramp things up. Thankfully, the 2021 season will be a standard 162-game marathon rather than the truncated 60-game sprint we saw last summer.

BetOnline.ag has already posted futures odds for each of MLB’s six divisions. Which teams are the best values to win their respective divisions?

American League East

• New York Yankees (-175)
• Toronto Blue Jays (+375)
• Tampa Bay Rays (+400)
• Boston Red Sox (+2000)
• Baltimore Orioles (+6600)

Right off the bat (pun VERY intended, by the way), we can go ahead and eliminate two teams from the conversation. The Baltimore Orioles are nowhere near contention, while the Boston Red Sox have effectively punted on their second consecutive season. Neither team will be anywhere close to the playoff picture this season.

While the Yankees are heavy -175 favorites, let’s not forget that they didn’t even win the AL East a season ago. That’s because the Tampa Bay Rays wound up cruising to a division title before ultimately winning the American League pennant. However, the Rays have taken a hit this offseason. Blake Snell is now in San Diego, while Charlie Morton has moved on to Atlanta. Both departures put a huge dent into what was one of baseball’s best pitching staffs a season ago.

The Yankees will compete. New York has been decimated by injuries in each of the last two seasons, but there is more than enough talent here to where the Yanks will still be in the hunt at season’s end. The problem with betting the Yankees is that you’re getting almost no bang for your buck at the current -175 odds.

Can’t wait to watch my Georgie

— jasmine (@jasmill13) February 8, 2021

The Blue Jays have generated some buzz this winter. The offseason signings of George Springer and Marcus Semien have Toronto looking like a team that can make a push right away. The Jays already had one of the most exciting young rosters in all of baseball, but the infusion of veteran talent should expedite the team’s path to contention.

The pitching may be volatile, but there’s talent here, too. Hyun-jin Ryu is a legitimate ace, while Nate Pearson may be the Jays’ future No. 1. Steven Matz, Robbie Ray, and Ross Stripling give this rotation some underrated depth, too. The lineup boasts an insane amount of power, so scoring runs shouldn’t be a huge issue for Toronto in 2021.

There is just a lot to like about these Blue Jays. We may be falling prey to a glitzy offseason, but the +375 odds on Toronto to win the division offer plenty of upside.

American League Central

• Chicago White Sox (-145)
• Minnesota Twins (+190)
• Cleveland Indians (+750)
• Detroit Tigers (+3300)
• Kansas City Royals (+4000)

The AL Central produced three playoff teams last season, but that won’t be the case in 2021. With Cleveland having jettisoned the vast majority of the roster that made a run to the 2016 World Series, we can likely lump the Indians in with the Tigers and Royals near the cellar of the American League. It would be a surprise if any of them came all that close to posting a .500 record in 2021.

So, this looks like a two-horse race. The White Sox made the postseason as a Wild Card last season before losing to Oakland in the first round. Like Toronto, Chicago is armed with a star-studded and youth-laden roster. They have added Adam Eaton, Liam Hendriks, and Lance Lynn this offseason in an attempt to inject more of a veteran presence into a locker room full of kids.

As is the case with the Blue Jays, the White Sox should do no shortage of slugging this season. Chicago hit the third-most homers in all of baseball in 2020, and they should rank right near the top of the league again in 2021.

While the Sox rest with most of their offseason work seemingly done, the Twins have been active of late, also signing Gold Glove shortstop Andrelton Simmons, left-hander J.A. Happ and Alex Colomé. https://t.co/4GMgGDAANH

— Sun-Times Sports (@suntimes_sports) February 6, 2021

While it’s easy to get caught up in the White Sox’ talent, the Twins actually won this division last year. Minnesota hasn’t had the most active offseason, but they did re-sign Nelson Cruz while fortifying their defense with Gold Glove shortstop Andrelton Simmons. The offense should do plenty of damage once again. It really comes down to whether the pitching can hold up. Kenta Maeda emerged as a Cy Young contender last year, but the Twins are still waiting on Jose Berrios to live up to his potential.

Michael Pineda, JA Happ, and Randy Dobnak don’t inspire a ton of confidence in terms of rotation depth, but you’re getting the two-time reigning AL Central champs at +190 to three-peat. I get the buzz with the White Sox, but there is no real reason to expect the Twins to drop-off much at all this season. Take the plus-money upside here and run.

American League West

• Oakland A’s (+120)
• Houston Astros (+160)
• Los Angeles Angels (+400)
• Seattle Mariners (+2200)
• Texas Rangers (+4000)

The AL West is another division that has been a two-horse race for a while. The A’s and Astros have been duking it out for divisional supremacy over the past couple of years. Houston held the advantage for a while, but Oakland won this division a season ago.

It’s hard to avoid Oakland or Houston here. The Athletics have once again developed a nice crop of homegrown talent, but the team never has enough money to keep the core around. Semien and Hendriks both left for greener pastures. The Khris Davis-for-Elvis Andrus swap hardly moves the needle, either. It’s hard for the Athletics to keep the boat afloat if they can never afford to keep the team together. The A’s look overvalued at +120.

The Astros will be without Springer. Justin Verlander will also miss the entire season after undergoing Tommy John surgery. We saw the ‘Stros rely on an incredibly young pitching staff a season ago. Will that experience pay off in a big way this season? Or was it a blip on the radar?

Carlos Correa and the #Astros sidestep an arbitration hearing: https://t.co/q4mA3EHM68 pic.twitter.com/oMDbu3pf1w

— MLB Trade Rumors (@mlbtraderumors) February 6, 2021

Houston was routinely undervalued by MLB betting sites last year before coming to within a game of yet another World Series appearance. Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve, and Carlos Correa still give the Astros a formidable offensive core. Yordan Alvarez will also return after a lost 2020, which should help offset the loss of Springer. Michael Brantley has re-signed, as well.

I want to believe the Angels have finally built a winner around Mike Trout, but at this point, I’ll believe it when I see it. LA has been willing to spend money in an attempt to do so, but the Angels have still made just one postseason appearance with Trout in the fold.

Is a rotation of Dylan Bundy/Shohei Ohtani/Andrew Heaney/Griffin Canning/Jose Quintana playoff-worthy?

I like the Astros at +160 more than I like the Athletics at +120. However, if you’re really looking for profit potential, the Angels may be the best value of all at +400. At some point, all of the talent on this roster has to amount to something. It’s no sure thing that Houston or Oakland improves upon what they did last season. I like the upside a bet on the Angels brings at +400.

National League East

• New York Mets (+140)
• Atlanta Braves (+145)
• Washington Nationals (+650)
• Philadelphia Phillies (+850)
• Miami Marlins (+2200)

The Braves nearly made a trip to the World Series last fall, but the Mets (+140) are actually the odds-on favorites to win the NL East. Like the Angels, the Mets have been stockpiling talent, but we’re still waiting on everything to come together.

The time is now for this team. Under new ownership, the Mets have added Francisco Lindor, Carlos Carrasco, Aaron Loup, Jonathan Villar, Trevor May, Albert Almora, and James McCann this offseason. Adding that kind of talent to a core that already featured the likes of Jacob deGrom, Pete Alonso, Marcus Stroman, Seth Lugo, Jeff McNeil, and Michael Conforto should have New York dreaming big in 2021.

.@Lindor12BC in orange and blue = a work of art. 😍 pic.twitter.com/fQIZjavDkp

— New York Mets (@Mets) February 8, 2021

The Braves have plenty of young pitching, but young pitching tends to be volatile. Are Ian Anderson and Max Fried really as good as they looked in 2020? Doubtful. Mike Soroka is working his way back from an Achilles injury. Charlie Morton isn’t getting any younger. Atlanta can mash with the likes of Freddie Freeman, Marcell Ozuna, and Ronald Acuna Jr., but the pitching could easily take a step back.

The Nationals and Phillies are both complete wild cards. Washington faltered last year following their shocking 2019 World Series run, but any rotation that features Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg at the top of worthy of attention. The Phillies have tried to stockpile talent around Bryce Harper, but the results through his first two years in town have been lacking.

It may sound boring, but the Mets at +140 are still good value. New York has the best pitching depth of any team in the East, and we haven’t even mentioned the expected return of Noah Syndergaard. This division should be competitive, but I’m buying what the Mets are selling.

National League Central

• St. Louis Cardinals (+125)
• Cincinnati Reds (+325)
• Milwaukee Brewers (+375)
• Chicago Cubs (+400)
• Pittsburgh Pirates (+5000)

The Pirates will be the worst team in the NL this season, but each of the other four teams in the NL Central has a shot. The Cubs have fallen off, though, with the loss of Yu Darvish likely maiming their chances of making a legitimate run. Replacing Kyle Schwarber with Joc Pederson is a largely lateral move, but they have zero rotation depth. Beyond Kyle Hendricks, the starting staff is incredibly weak.

The Reds face similar issues following the departure of Trevor Bauer. Sonny Gray may not be far behind, as Gray has been mentioned in trade rumors for months. If Cincy does pull the trigger on a Gray trade at some point soon, they can kiss their NL Central hopes goodbye.

The Brewers at +375 are interesting. Milwaukee struggled through most of last season, but they were still ultimately able to back their way into a Wild Card spot. Christian Yelich needs to bounce back from a down season, while the return of Lorenzo Cain could be a boost. It likely comes down to the pitching holding up. Brandon Woodruff is one of baseball’s more underrated commodities, while Corbin Burnes could be primed for a breakout. Devin Williams and Josh Hader are still two of baseball’s most dominant relief arms.

An early look at Nolan Arenado in Cardinal red pic.twitter.com/fxqNBv8yaP

— Nick Pollack (@PitcherList) February 8, 2021

The Cardinals will draw most of the headlines, and deservingly so. St. Louis made the biggest splash of any team in the division when they pried Nolan Arenado out of Colorado. Arenado, Paul Goldschmidt, and Paul DeJong give the Cards a three-headed monster in the middle of the lineup. The starting rotation looks almost identical to the one we saw win this division a season ago.

St. Louis at +125 isn’t a bad value, but Milwaukee (+375) stands out. Yelich will likely improve upon his disappointing showing from 2020, and it’s hard to imagine any team running away with this division. I’ll gladly take the extra upside in Milwaukee’s +375 odds to reclaim the Central.

National League West

• Los Angeles Dodgers (-250)
• San Diego Padres (+200)
• Arizona Diamondbacks (+5000)
• Colorado Rockies (+5000)
• San Francisco Giants (+5000)

As you can see, the NL West realistically has just two teams in the hunt. The Rockies, Giants, and D-Backs may as well not even have betting odds at all.

Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado give San Diego arguably the best left side of the infield in the majors. The Padres were thin on pitching depth last year, so GM AJ Preller has made his rotation his top priority this winter. The Pads traded for Yu Darvish, Blake Snell, and Joe Musgrove this winter. San Diego also signed highly-touted infielder Ha-Seong Kim out of the KBO.

PECOTA projections for the #Dodgers/NL West are out. pic.twitter.com/Xjvr3c2xUo

— Matthew Moreno (@MMoreno1015) February 9, 2021

Pitching should no longer be an issue for this team. The Padres may well be the second-best team in the entire National League. The problem, of course, is that the Dodgers are pretty clearly still the best team. After the Padres generated plenty of headlines for their active offseason, the Dodgers fired back with last week’s signing of reigning NL Cy Young winner Trevor Bauer.

Bauer joining the rotation gives LA an embarrassment of riches. The starting rotation of Bauer, Walker Buehler, Clayton Kershaw, Julio Urias, and Davis Price gives the Dodgers a rotation featuring five guys that would be legitimate 1-2 starters on most teams. The Dodgers also added Corey Knebel to what was baseball’s best bullpen last season. Fringe pieces like Enrique Hernandez and Joc Pederson left, but depth has never been a problem for LA. Mookie Betts and Cody Bellinger give the Dodgers two MVPs near the top of the lineup, while we need not sleep on Corey Seager again.

Of course, you’re not getting any profit potential by betting on the Dodgers’ current -250 odds. While LA winning the NL West for the ninth straight year is clearly the most likely outcome, the Padres are still good enough to be worth a flier at +200. If LA deals with unexpected injury issues, for example, San Diego is more than capable of taking advantage.