MLB Player Props for April 29: Will Trevor Bauer Dominate the Brewers?

Thursday brings a more limited slate of Major League Baseball action with games spread throughout the day. We’ve got five games on tap for this evening, including the second game of the day-night doubleheader between the White Sox and Tigers. That obviously means more limited opportunities for MLB bettors, but there is still an edge to be found in some of the player props offered at MLB betting sites around the industry.

The biggest game of the day pits a pair of NL contenders against one another in Milwaukee. Trevor Bauer will take the mound for the reigning World Series champs as they begin a four-game weekend set against the Brewers.

Which MLB player props should you be targeting today?

Trevor Bauer Total Strikeouts

• Over 8.5 (-141)
• Under 8.5 (+110)

Trevor Bauer is easily the most decorated pitcher taking the mound tonight. The defending NL Cy Young Award winner has gotten off to a strong start with his new team, as well. Bauer owns a sparkling strikeout rate of 37.8 percent through his first five outings in Dodger Blue, alongside a tidy 2.53 ERA.

Bauer hasn’t struck out fewer than seven in any of his first five games in LA, with a pair of double-digit strikeout performances on his ledger. Three of Bauer’s five games have come away from Dodger Stadium, and tonight he’ll be facing a watered-down version of the Brewers’ offense. Milwaukee is still without Christian Yelich, who went on the injured list a couple of weeks ago with a bad back.

Dodgers pitcher Trevor Bauer pitched with one eye closed vs. the Padres in Spring Training.

Fernando Tatis Jr. got revenge after he homered off of him tonight 👀 pic.twitter.com/qPjBdsZVZ6

— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) April 25, 2021

The Brewers have been a strikeout-heavy offense, in general, this season, but the projected lineup isn’t an elite matchup for Ks. The projected group has a collective 23.4 percent K-rate against righties since the beginning of last season, though that doesn’t include the pitcher’s spot. Bauer is averaging exactly nine strikeouts per start so far this season, which includes a 10-strikeout performance against the A’s in Oakland earlier this year.

Assuming we get a normal workload out of Bauer tonight, I think the over on 8.5 Ks is the slightly better play. You can get decent upside by betting the under at the current +110 odds, but I like Bauer’s chances of mowing down a lesser version of the Milwaukee lineup in this one. Bet the over.

Luke Weaver Total Strikeouts

• Over 5.5 (-106)
• Under 5.5 (-121)

Luke Weaver will take the ball for the Diamondbacks tonight when they welcome the Rockies to town. Weaver has a 4.57 ERA through his first four starts of the year, one of which came against this same Colorado team at Coors Field. Weaver has only struck out 19 hitters through 21.2 innings to this point, but we can expect some positive regression in that regard moving forward. Weaver posted a strikeout rate north of 26 percent two years ago, and his career rate is up around 24 percent.

A matchup at home against the Rockies should help him boost those K numbers a bit. Colorado’s projected lineup tonight has a collective strikeout rate of over 26 percent against right-handed pitching since the start of last year, and he’ll also get a few turns against a pitcher in Antonio Senzatela.

Weaver only whiffed three in his previous start against the Rockies this season, but we can take that with a grain of salt considering that outing came at the hitter’s haven known as Coors Field.

Weaver struck out eight in his lone home start of the season against the Reds, and the over/under of 5.5 tonight just looks too low. I don’t expect Weaver to easily blow past that total, but the over is still the right play here. That’s especially the case with the odds heavily favoring the under, so bet the over on 5.5 at -106.

Adbert Alzolay Total Strikeouts

• Over 5.5 (-118)
• Under 5.5 (-108)

The Cubs’ pitching staff hasn’t featured many bright spots early in 2021, but Adbert Alzolay has been one of the few. The 26-year-old right-hander has an 0-2 record with a 5.40 ERA so far this season, but the underlying numbers are more favorable. Alzolay’s 3.47 SIERA is legitimately good, and his K-rate through three games is up near 30 percent.

While Alzolay has generated plenty of swings-and-misses since making his MLB debut in 2019, he has endured his fair share of control issues. Alzolay has a walk rate over 13 percent at the big league level. He has shaved that to 8.8 percent so far this season, but 8.8 percent is still an above-average walk rate in the major leagues.

Stuff+ is designed to help make quick decisions because it’s based on velo & movement. Today’s Cubs starter Adbert Alzolay doesn’t have a huge sample, but 101 sliders in, it looks like he has the fifth-best slider in baseball by Stuff+. Love this dude. pic.twitter.com/9eatxo7Dik

— Eno Sarris (@enosarris) April 29, 2021

Tonight, Alzolay draws a difficult matchup on the road against the Braves. Atlanta has scored at least five runs in each of the first three games of this series, including an 10-run outburst just last night. The Braves also aren’t a particularly high-strikeout offense, especially against right-handed pitching. While Alzolay has put up solid strikeout totals early in his career, he wasn’t a huge source of Ks at the lower levels. It’s worth wondering whether his high K totals so far in the majors are simply a result of the relatively small sample of work he’s done at this level.

The under looks like the play here. I haven’t seen enough to believe that Alzolay is suddenly going to be an elite strikeout pitcher moving forward, and the Braves are one of the most difficult matchups of all. Alzolay could get himself into some hot water if he struggles with his control against a patient lineup, as well. Bet the under on 5.5 strikeouts at -108.

Ronald Acuna Jr. To Hit a Home Run

• Yes (+315)
• No (-455)

Alzolay is a bit of a wild card at this point, but it’s reasonable to expect him to struggle tonight in Atlanta. The Braves’ offense has been on fire lately, thanks in large part to the exploits of Ronald Acuna Jr. at the top of the order. So far this season, the future NL MVP is slashing .350/.454/.750 with eight homers, 17 runs batted in, 14 walks, and 24 runs scored. If those numbers sound good, it’s because they are.

Acuna’s eight home runs are tied for the most in the majors, and he most recently took a trip around the bases on Tuesday night. Alzolay has done admirable work against right-handed hitters early in his career, but it’s safe to say he hasn’t often faced righties of Acuna’s caliber at this level.

It’s also worth noting that three of the seven homers Alzolay has allowed in his career have been hit by righties. Even if his K numbers are more impressive vs. RHBs, he has still had the occasional issue with the long ball.

Here, you’re getting arguably baseball’s best non-Mike Trout hitter at home against an unproven starter at +350 to go deep. Home runs props are inherently risky considering homers are fairly rare, but the risk is baked into the long odds. A +350 payout is worth the price of admission with someone as lethal as Acuna.

Corey Seager To Hit a Home Run

• Yes (+340)
• No (-500)

As mentioned, the Dodgers will hit the road to begin a weekend series with the Brewers in Milwaukee tonight. LA has struggled with the bats lately, and a matchup against a talented Brewers pitching staff likely isn’t what the doctor ordered in that regard.

However, LA will open the series against one of Milwaukee’s weaker pitchers. Eric Lauer, who previously pitched for the Padres, is set to make his season debut tonight. Lauer is a lefty, but he has actually had a far more difficult time getting his fellow lefties out over the years. Since coming to the majors for the first time in 2018, Lauer has a whiff rate of just 14.4 percent against LHBs. Conversely, he has struck out over 22 percent of right-handed batters in the same span.

Corey Seager takes Amir Garrett deep to tie things up for the Dodgers in the bottom of the 7th! pic.twitter.com/52nftyFiQO

— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) April 27, 2021

Lauer has also allowed a .377 career wOBA with 10 homers to lefties, and the Brewers’ home ballpark is notoriously one of the most friendly parks in the league for lefty power. Lauer has had issues with lefties, while Corey Seager has enjoyed quite a bit of success against them.

Despite hitting left-handed himself, three of Seager’s four home runs so far this season have come off of lefties. 29 of his 92 career homers have also been hit off of left-handed pitchers, which is impressive considering he has about half as many plate appearances against lefties than he does against righties all-time.

Seager feels like as good a bet as anyone to hit a homer tonight. Lauer’s splits favor Seager, and we know he’s fully capable of doing damage against same-handed pitching. Take the +340 odds on a Seager homer and run.