MLB Props: Can Tony La Russa Win AL Manager of the Year in 2021?

We’re just over a week from Opening Day. The 2021 Major League Baseball season gets going next Thursday, and MLB betting sites are ready. Sites like BetOnline, MyBookie, and Bovada are already well-stocked with game lines, futures, props, and all sorts of baseball wagering options in anticipation of the new campaign.

Today, let’s take a look at some managerial prop bets offered at BetOnline. You can wager on which bosses will take home Manager of the Year honors in both leagues. You can also put money on which manager will be the first to be handed a pink slip after the season begins.

AL Manager of the Year

• Charlie Montoyo, Blue Jays (+700)
• Aaron Boone, Yankees (+750)
• Rocco Baldelli, Twins (+800)
• Alex Cora, Red Sox (+900)
• Dusty Baker, Astros (+900)
• Joe Maddon, Angels (+900)
• Terry Francona, Indians (+1000)
• Tony La Russa, White Sox (+1000)
• Bob Melvin, A’s (+1000)
• Kevin Cash, Rays (+1200)
• AJ Hinch, Tigers (+1400)
• Brandon Hyde, Orioles (+1600)
• Mike Matheny, Royals (+1600)
• Scott Servais, Mariners (+1600)
• Chris Woodward, Rangers (+1600)

In most sports, the person that wins Manager or Coach of the Year falls into one of two categories. Either that skipper has led a team few expected to compete to a playoff appearance, or that manager is in charge of the league’s best team. Last year, Tampa Bay’s Kevin Cash took home American League honors for leading the Rays past the Yankees to the top of the American League. The Rays, of course, ultimately made it all the way to the World Series, but Manager of the Year is a regular-season honor.

The Blue Jays are a trendy pick to challenge the Rays and Yankees atop the AL East after a strong offseason. Toronto added big names like George Springer and Marcus Semien in free agency. This team was a Wild Card team a year ago, but a division title could be in its sights. As a result, it comes as little surprise to see Charlie Montoyo as the frontrunner for AL Manager of the Year.

The Yankees, Twins, Astros, A’s, and White Sox are expected to be playoff teams, as well. Oakland’s Bob Melvin has won this award three times over the years, but the Athletics would have to run away with the AL West if he were to do so again this season. The A’s won the division a year ago, but ultimately flamed out in the postseason yet again.

Abreu calls the experience working with Tony La Russa “remarkable” and “incredible.” Says it’s the first time in his eight years that he’s felt really good and comfortable at camp.

“I’m just blessed to be here. Because it is a blessing to be around someone like Tony.”

— Vinnie Duber (@VinnieDuber) March 22, 2021

If Chicago beats Minnesota and Cleveland in that race, La Russa may earn himself some hardware. Voters may also find the story compelling, as this will be the 76-year-old’s first managerial gig since winning a World Series with the Cardinals back in 2011.

If this is the year the Angels finally make the most of their talent, Joe Maddon (+900) is another viable Manager of the Year candidate. Hopes are high in Anaheim once again. Shohei Ohtani looks primed for a bounce-back season, and he spearheads a rotation that has the potential to be much-improved in 2021. We know the Halos can hit. It’s all about keeping their opponents off the scoreboard. The AL West is fairly wide open to begin with. The Angels certainly have enough talent to make a push.

The Yankees might have to win 115 games for Aaron Boone (+750) to get much traction for the award. New York has arguably the most loaded roster in the league. Rocco Baldelli (+800) won it two years ago, so there could be some voter fatigue there. Alex Cora (+900) and AJ Hinch (+1400) have both resurfaced after being suspended for a full year.

I doubt either of them will be able to win over the hearts of voters right away. It’s also hard to imagine the Red Sox or Tigers finishing anywhere close to the postseason, anyway. Even a year removed from the fallout from the sign-stealing scandal, Dusty Baker (+900) and the Astros will probably have a difficult time finding much support come awards season, regardless of how well they play during the season.

Montoyo (+700) is a viable target at those odds despite being the betting favorite. If you want a little more bang for your buck, both Maddon (+900) and La Russa (+1000) make plenty of sense. The best bets for AL Manager of the Year are ranked below:

1. Tony La Russa (+1000)
2. Charlie Montoyo (+700)
3. Joe Maddon (+900)
4. Dusty Baker (+900)

NL Manager of the Year

• Brian Snitker, Braves (+700)
• Dave Roberts, Dodgers (+800)
• Don Mattingly, Marlins (+800)
• Jayce Tingler, Padres (+800)
• Luis Rojas, Mets (+900)
• David Ross, Cubs (+1000)
• Craig Counsell, Brewers (+1000)
• Joe Girardi, Phillies (+1000)
• Torey Lovullo, Diamondbacks (+1200)
• David Bell, Reds (+1200)
• Mike Shildt, Cardinals (+1200)
• Gabe Kapler, Giants (+1400)
• Dave Martinez, Nationals (+1400)
• Bud Black, Rockies (+1600)
• Derek Shelton, Pirates (+1600)

Don Mattingly took home NL Manager of the Year after leading the Marlins to the playoffs for the first time in nearly 20 years. Miami even won a playoff series over the Cubs. Mattingly (+800) checks-in with the third-best odds of winning it again this season, but that looks like an easy bet to fade. We haven’t seen an NL manager go back-to-back with this award since Bobby Cox in 2004 and 2005. Miami was also clearly aided by the truncated 60-game schedule a season ago. The Marlins look destined to bring up the rear in the loaded NL East, so Mattingly won’t be winning it again in 2021.

Brian Snitker (+700) and Mike Shildt (+1200) won the award in 2018 and 2019, respectively. I’m a bit more bearish on the Braves than most, so I want no part of betting on Snitker here as the favorite. Shildt is the better value, especially if the Cardinals are able to rise to the top of the unpredictable NL Central.

St. Louis added Nolan Arenado this offseason, and the Cards are slight +105 favorites in the division.

As is the case with Boone on the AL side, the only way Dave Roberts receives much consideration here is if his Dodgers challenge for the all-time regular-season wins record. It’s possible considering the reigning champs are easily the most talented team in baseball, but betting on a record-setting season is rather risky.

Padres Manager Jayce Tingler has been ejected. pic.twitter.com/ri5wHleiIg

— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) October 7, 2020

Rather than trying Roberts at +800, why not take Jayce Tingler at the same odds? The Padres are the talk of baseball right now. San Diego had the splashiest offseason of any team, and they have arguably the most exciting young core in the game. Assuming the Pads live up to the hype and push the Dodgers in the NL West, Tingler looks like an awesome option to earn some recognition at +800.

Luis Rojas of the Mets (+900) makes sense, as well. New York is primed to make a run at Snitker’s Braves in the division after adding Francisco Lindor this winter. The Mets are synonymous with disappointment, but this team looks like the real deal. The manager of whichever team wins this division may be in the driver’s seat when it comes to Manager of the Year, which makes Rojas, Joe Girardi (+1000), and Dave Martinez (+1400) alluring long-shot options.

Craig Counsell (+1000) deserves a mention, as well. Nobody knows what will happen in the National League Central. The Brewers are coming off a down season, but they still managed to sneak into the playoffs. Assuming Christian Yelich and Keston Hiura bounce back, Milwaukee can easily challenge the Cardinals, Cubs, and Reds for Central supremacy. The Brewers aren’t generating a whole lot of buzz at this point, which will only help Counsell’s case if the team exceeds expectations.

There are plenty of great candidates on the NL side. I’ll rank my favorite bets for Manager of the Year as follows:

1. Jayce Tingler (+800)
2. Luis Rojas (+900)
3. Craig Counsell (+1000)
4. Dave Martinez (+1400)
5. Dave Roberts (+800)
6. Joe Girardi (+1000)

Which Manager Gets Fired First?

• Brandon Hyde (+700)
• Bud Black (+800)
• Scott Servais (+800)
• Chris Woodward (+800)
• Joe Maddon (+900)
• Derek Shelton (+900)
• Torey Lovullo (+1000)
• Craig Counsell (+1200)
• Tony La Russa (+1400)
• Dusty Baker (+1400)
• Mike Matheny (+1400)
• David Bell (+1600)
• Terry Francona (+1600)
• Luis Rojas (+1600)
• Aaron Boone (+1600)
• Gabe Kapler (+1600)
• Dave Martinez (+1600)
• David Ross (+2200)
• Bob Melvin (+2500)
• Joe Girardi (+2500)

First off, there are several teams around the league that clearly aren’t trying their hardest to win games right now. All of the Pirates, Rockies, Tigers, Royals, Rangers, and Orioles surely know they won’t be competing for a postseason berth any time soon. You can debate throwing the Mariners and Diamondbacks into the pile, as well.

Bud Black has been in Colorado for a while, but this team just traded its franchise cornerstone. The Rockies appear to be headed for yet another rebuild, so it’s worth wondering whether the veteran manager even wants to stick around. If the Rockies get off to a dismal start, which they almost surely will, perhaps Black will be the first manager to leave his post. Black is a fine option here at +800.

Mariners manager Scott Servais had a response to the Dodgers’ Trevor Bauer saying he wasn’t really trying in the fifth inning, when Bauer allowed three homers. “Our guys were hitting with one eye shut for the first four innings.” (via @RyanDivish) https://t.co/AnYWaA7bqv

— Seattle Times Sports (@SeaTimesSports) March 24, 2021

While I think La Russa can make a run at Manager of the Year, there is also the chance that this experiment fails miserably. This guy is 76 and known for his old-school style. There is a very distinct possibility that that style no longer resonates with young players. Everyone is expecting huge things from the White Sox. If the team gets off to an inauspicious start, TLR could easily be jettisoned right back into retirement. We know he’s not the team’s long-term solution at the position, anyway.

Luis Rojas (+1600) is a possibility, as well. Rojas was essentially a last-second hire after the Mets decided to fire Carlos Beltran before last season even began. I do think the Mets will be good this season, but Rojas makes for a pretty convenient scapegoat if things go south in a hurry.

Unfortunately, we’re likely to see at least one managerial ouster during the season. The following candidates look like the best combination of likelihood and value as the 2021 campaign gets underway:

1. Bud Black (+800)
2. Tony La Russa (+1400)
3. Scott Servais (+800)
4. Luis Rojas (+1600)
5. Torey Lovullo (+1000)