NASCAR Buschy McBusch Race 400 Betting Preview, Odds and Picks

On Sunday, May 2^nd, NASCAR heads to Kansas Speedway for the Buschy McBush Race 400. This is the 11^th race of the season and the first of two annual trips to Kansas for the Cup Series.

Denny Hamlin is the defending race winner having won two of the last three Kansas races. He’s also the odds on favorite to win the Buschy McBusch Race 400 this weekend, according to NASCAR betting sites.

Rounding out the Top 5 betting favorites for this Sunday’s race are Kyle Larson, Martin Truex Jr., Brad Keselowski who won last week in Talladega, and Joey Logano who won the fall Kansas race last year.

Let’s put our safety gear on, strap in tightly, rev up those engines, and make some checkered flag winning predictions for the Buschy McBush Race 400.

Race Profile

The Kansas Speedway is a standard tri-oval track that opened in 2000 and ran its first NASCAR Cup Series race in 2001. The asphalt track has a lap distance of 1.5 miles with four turns that featured banking from 17 to 20 degrees.

The following is a breakdown of Sunday’s race:

• Total Miles: 400.5 miles
• Total Laps: 267 laps
• Stage 1: First 80 laps
• Stage 2: Second 80 laps
• Final Stage: Remaining 107 laps

The Buschy McBusch Race 400 is set to begin at 3PM ET and will air live on FS1.

You’re definitely not going to want to miss this!!!

TUNE IN to the @NASCARONFOX prerace show this Sunday at @kansasspeedway. @PatrickMahomes @ericstonestreet pic.twitter.com/3yC9gH98Ba

— Clint Bowyer (@ClintBowyer) April 28, 2021

What to Watch for at Kansas

With all of the NASCAR excitement heading into the first weekend of May, the following storylines are worth keeping an eye on:

• Will Keselowski or Hamlin win their 3^rd spring Kansas race?
• Can Joe Gibbs Racing win this race for a 5^th time?
• Will Kevin Harvick return to his winning ways at Kansas?
• Can Chevy win for the first time since 2015?
• Can Team Penske win for the 2^nd straight weekend?
• Will Larson get his first Kansas win?

Previous Buschy McBusch Race 400 Winners

Although the Cup Series began running at Kansas in 2001, they didn’t start holding this race until 2011. That event was won by Brad Keselowski. He and Denny Hamlin have won this race the most times with two apiece. Hamlin is also the reigning winner of the Buschy McBush Race 400.

The following is a list of previous winners dating back to 2011:

• Brad Keselowski in 2011, 2019
• Denny Hamlin in 2012, 2020
• Matt Kenseth in 2013
• Jeff Gordon in 2014
• Jimmie Johnson in 2015
• Kyle Busch in 2016
• Martin Truex Jr. in 2017
• Kevin Harvick in 2018

All previous winners of this race besides Gordon, Johnson and Kenseth will participate in Sunday’s race.

NASCAR Buschy McBusch Race 400 Betting Odds

The following betting odds are courtesy of BetOnline:

• Denny Hamlin (+500)
• Kyle Larson (+600)
• Martin Truex Jr (+600)
• Brad Keselowski (+800)
• Joey Logano (+800)
• Chase Elliott (+900)
• Kevin Harvick (+900)
• Ryan Blaney (+900)
• Kyle Busch (+1000)
• William Byron (+1600)
• Alex Bowman (+1800)
• Christopher Bell(+2500)
• Kurt Busch (+3300)
• Tyler Reddick (+3300)
• Austin Dillon (+5000)
• Matt DiBenedetto (+5000)
• Aric Almirola (+6600)
• Chris Buescher (+10000)
• Cole Custer (+10000)
• Darrell Wallace Jr (+10000)
• Erik Jones (+10000)
• Ricky Stenhouse Jr (+10000)
• Ryan Newman (+10000)
• Ross Chastain (+12500)
• Austin Cindric (+15000)
• Daniel Suarez (+15000)
• Michael McDowell (+15000)

Buschy McBusch Race 400 Betting Favorites

According to most NASCAR betting sites, the following drivers are considered the odds on favorites to win the Buschy McBusch Race 400 on Sunday, May 2^nd:

Driver	Wins	Top 5	Top 10	Avg Start	Avg Finish	DNF
Denny Hamlin	3	8	9	12.2	14.5	2
Kyle Larson	0	3	5	17.2	16.4	2
Martin Truex Jr	2	9	12	10.9	13.2	1
Brad Keselowski	2	6	12	10.2	11.6	1
Joey Logano	3	8	9	10.7	17.6	4

Denny Hamlin (+500)

• Top 5 (-110)
• Top 10 (-360)

Here we are, another week of the season and another week where Denny Hamlin is sitting on top of the driver standings. He has an 87 point lead over teammate Martin Truex Jr.

Hamlin still leads the field in Top 5s (8), Top 10s (8), laps led (737) and stage wins (5). This is despite finishing 32^nd at Talladega last weekend after I picked him to win the GEICO 500.

Needless to say, that was Hamlin’s worst result of the season. It also snapped a streak of six straight races where he finished 4^th or better. Denny had pit lane issues, car issues and just couldn’t get back to the front of the field after leading 43 laps in the race.

Now, Hamlin heads to Kansas where he’s been one of the best drivers of the field.

In 25 starts, Hamlin has three wins, eight Top 5s, nine Top 10s, and a 14.5 average finish which is 5^th best.

He’s won two of the last three Kansas races including the 2020 edition of this race. He also has four Top 5 results in the last seven races at this track.

Hamlin has been the best driver of the 2021 season and I expect him to get back to his Top 5 ways this Sunday. The #11 car will contend for a checkered flag. Pencil him in as a Top 10 and Top 5 car this weekend.

Kyle Larson (+600)

• Top 5 (-105)
• Top 10 (-335)

Over the last four weeks, Kyle Larson has fallen from 2^nd to 9^th in the standings. After a run of four straight Top 7 results which included a win at Las Vegas in Week 4 of the season, Larson has three results of 18^th or worse and just one Top 5 in the last four races.

The #5 car had engine issues last weekend in Talladega and finished 40^th overall. He was only able to compete three laps in the GEICO 500.

Fortunately, Larson heads to Kansas where he’s one of the best drivers at tracks with a 1.5 mile lap distance.

In 12 starts at this speedway, Larson has three Top 5s and five Top 10s. However, he has had two Top 5s and three Top 10s in the last four races at this track.

Larson was suspsended last year when the Cup Series ran both Kansas races. However, he finished 8^th in the 2019, 4^th in the 2018, and 6^th in the 2017 editions of this race. That’s a 6.0 average finish in his last three Kansas spring races.

I see Larson finishing in the Top 10 this weekend and possibly even cracking the Top 5. I’m hesitant to say that he will contend for the checkered flag since he’s hit a rough patch over the last month of racing.

Martin Truex Jr (+600)

• Top 5 (-105)
• Top 10 (-335)

Like Larson, Martin Truex Jr. had a poor performance at Talladega last Sunday. He finished 31^st which was his worst result of the season so far.

Truex had won at Martinsville three weeks ago and then finished 5^th at Richmond two weeks ago. He’s been in second place for the driver standings for the last three weeks. His lead over third place Joey Logano is six points and just eight points over 4^th place William Byron.

In 25 starts at Kansas, Truex has two wins, nine Top 5s, 12 Top 10s, and an average finish of 13.2 which is the 4^th best finish among the field. He has the second most Top 5s and tied for the second most Top 10s among drivers.

This weekend, I expect a solid run for Truex. He’s also one of the best drivers at 1.5 mile tracks and Kansas has been a place where he’s had a lot of success at.

In the last eight Kansas races, Truex has two wins, five Top 5s and seven Top 10s. He’s also led laps in five of those races.

Truex will be a Top 10 and Top 5 car with a chance of competing for the checkered flag.

Brad Keselowski (+800)

• Top 5 (+120)
• Top 10 (-250)

After 10 races on the season, Keselowski finally picked up his first win of 2021. He proved once again why he’s one of the best drivers at Talladega.

Keselowski took the race lead in the final laps of a restart and held on for the win despite a hard charging group of drivers in the high line.

Sunday is already looking good for @keselowski.

The No. 2 car will start on the pole at @kansasspeedway! pic.twitter.com/2KkNWHF8c3

— NASCAR (@NASCAR) April 28, 2021

The victory snapped a streak of four straight races where he finished outside of the Top 10. Keselowski jumped from 9^th to 6^th in the standings following the GEICO 500.

This weekend, Keselowski will be another top contender for the checkered flag. He’s had a strong career at Kansas with two wins, six Top 5s, and 12 Top 10s in 22 starts. His 11.6 average finish is third best among active drivers.

He last won this race in 2019 and has three Top 5s in the last four Kansas events. He also has a 7.5 average finish in the last eight races at this track.

I think with the win at Talladega last Sunday, Keselowski will now be a credible contender at most tracks throughout the remainder of the season. Take the #2 car to finish in the Top 10 and the Top 5.

Joey Logano (+800)

• Top 5 (+135)
• Top 10 (-225)

Despite finishing 39^th at Talladega last weekend, Logano remained third in the driver standings. He only completed 59 laps in the GEICO 500 due to a scary crash that saw Logano get airborne and flipping.

Joey Logano gets airborne and goes for a WILD ride at Talladega! pic.twitter.com/7E9vCyqCZD

— FOX: NASCAR (@NASCARONFOX) April 25, 2021

Thankfully, he was ok and didn’t suffer any injuries. It’s a testament to the safety of these cars.

The result snapped a streak of three straight Top 6 finishes which includes a victory in the Bristol Dirt race four events ago.

As mentioned in the beginning of the article, Joey Logano won the last time the Cup Series was in Kansas which took place in the third round of the Playoffs. It was his first Top 5 result five Kansas races.

Logano is a three time winner at Kansas with all three victories coming since the fall of 2014. Unfortunately, he also has three DNFs during that stretch as well.

One of those DNFs came last year in this race. The other two came in the 2016 and 2017 editions of this event.

With three crashes in the last five Buschy McBuschy races, and having never won a spring Kansas race, I am avoiding Joey Logano this weekend. If he doesn’t crash then the #22 car will crack the Top 10.

The Best Buschy McBusch Race 400 Betting Value

The following NASCAR drivers offer betting value for the Buschy McBusch Race 400 due to their current betting odds at online sportsbooks, their past success at the Kansas Speedway, and their 2021 season so far:

Driver	Wins	Top 5	Top 10	Avg Start	Avg Finish	DNF
Chase Elliott	1	4	6	13.8	11.0	0
Kevin Harvick	3	10	17	13.5	9.3	1
Kyle Busch	1	8	12	12.8	15.7	4
Kurt Busch	0	4	12	14.6	15.9	3

Chase Elliott (+900)

• Top 5 (+125)
• Top 10 (-235)

After clawing his way back up to 7^th in the standings, Chase Elliott finished 24^th at Talladega and fell back down to the 8^th spot in the driver standings. It was the second straight week, and third in the last five races, that Elliott has finished outside of the Top 10.

It’s a bit surprising how slow of a start to the season that the 2020 Cup Series champion has gotten out to. He’s only averaging a 14.5 finish and has just four Top 10 results in 10 races so far. Furthermore, he’s only led 76 laps with one stage win on the year.

This is not the start to 2021 that many fans and pundits expected for the #9 car.

With that said, there’s a decent chance that Elliott can turn things around at Kansas this weekend. In 10 starts at this track, Elliott has one win, four Top 5s, six Top 10s, and a 11.0 average finish which is second best among the field.

He has one win, three Top 5s, and four Top 10s in the last five Kansas races. His worst result over that stretch was 12^th. In fact, since the fall of 2017, Elliott’s worse result is 12^th to go along with five Top 6 finishes.

I believe Elliott will be a Top 10 car this weekend with a Top 5 ceiling. I’m not ready to pick him to win a race until we see the #9 car really competing for a checkered flag or the Cup Series returns to a road course.

Kevin Harvick (+900)

• Top 5 (+125)
• Top 10 (-235)

Like Elliott, the 2021 season has seen Kevin Harvick get off to a subpar start. While his 2021 stats would be great for most other drivers, they’re well below expectations for the #4 car.

Last weekend, Harvick was able to finish 4^th at Talladega. That was his best result since finishing 4^th in the Daytona 500 to start off the season. It also bumped him up one spot in the standings to 7^th overall.

Harvick has just three Top 5s on the year. Further signaling his subpar season so far, is the fact that Kevin has only led 29 laps on the year and has no stage wins in 10 races.

Of all the drivers in the field, Harvick has to be the most excited to head to Kansas.

Harvick leads all drivers in wins (3), Top 5s (10), Top 10s (17), poles (5), average finish (9.3), and laps led (949). In other words, he’s dominated at this track.

Over the last decade, Harvick has finished 16^th or better in every Kansas race. Since the fall 2013 race at this track, Harvick has three wins, nine Top 5s, and 11 Top 10s in 15 races.

In his last five Buschy McBuschy races, Harvick was 2^nd in 2016, 3^rd in 2017, won in 2018, was 13^th in 2019, and was 4^th in 2020. That’s a 4.6 average finish over the last five races at this speedway.

I like the #4 car to be a Top 10 and Top 5 car on Sunday as he should contend for the checkered flag.

Kyle Busch (+1000)

• Top 5 (+160)
• Top 10 (-195)

Kyle Busch has sat 11^th in the driver standings for three straight weeks now. He finished 18^th at Talladega last weekend which snapped a two race streak of Top 10 results.

Like with Elliott and Harvick, Busch has also had a slow start to the 2021 season. In 10 races, he has just two Top 5s, five Top 10s, a 14.5 average finish, just 14 laps led and zero stage wins.

.@KyleBusch has definitely had some pretty cool paint schemes!#AskKyleBusch | @JoeGibbsRacing https://t.co/VpaoWjOsgm pic.twitter.com/JsrfeEbv4B

— Kansas Speedway (@kansasspeedway) April 28, 2021

Since winning the 2019 Cup Series championship, Busch has really struggled over the last 46 races with just one victory.

Yet, at Kansas, I believe that Busch has some potential value with a Top 10 finish and an outside shot at a Top 5 result.

Over the last 12 Kansas races, Busch has one win, eight Top 5s, and 10 Top 10s.

His Top 5 odds could be worth a small flier, but his Top 10 odds seem like a solid wager this weekend.

Kurt Busch (+3300)

• Top 5 (+450)
• Top 10 (+110)

Kurt Busch fell out of the Top 16 all the way down to 18^th in the standings after a 35^th place result at Talladega last weekend. He didn’t even complete all 191 laps of the GEICO 500. It was the seventh straight race that he finished 13^th or worse.

On the season, Busch has just one Top 5 and two Top 10s. If the Playoffs started today, he would be on the outside looking in.

With that said, I like Kurt Busch this weekend to compete for a Top 10 spot.

Over the last six years, Busch has three Top 5s and eight Top 10s in the last 12 Kansas races. More recently, he has three Top 9 results in the last four events at this track.

In the last six Buschy McBusch races, Busch was 8^th in 2015, 3^rd in 2016, 19^th in 2017, 8^th in 2018, 7^th in 2019 and 9^th in 2020. That’s a 9.0 average finish in the last six spring Kansas races.

I think there’s value for Busch’s Top 10 odds of +110.

The Top Longshot to Win the Buschy McBusch Race 400

Ryan Newman (+10000)

• Top 5 (+1000)
• Top 10 (+425)

Of the field, there are only eight drivers with a win at Kansas and Ryan Newman is one of them. With that in mind, Newman is a longshot to win the race and even finish in the Top 10 for several reasons.

First, he’s finished 15^th or worse at Kansas in nine straight races. Second, he’s only scored two Top 10s on the year so far.

But, the reason why I think there’s potential for Newman to flirt with a Top 10 result is due to his success at other 1.5 mile tracks this year. At Homestead he finished 7^th, at Las Vegas he was 18^th, and he was 13^th in Atlanta. That’s a 12.6 average finish at tracks with the same lap distance as Kansas.

Keep an eye on the #6 car this weekend.

The Rest of the Field at Buschy McBusch Race 400

The following drivers are worth keeping an eye on in this weekend for the Buschy McBusch Race 400 in Kansas:

• Ryan Blaney (+900) – Blaney sits 5^th in the driver standings just 13 points back of 2^nd place Truex. He has seven straight Top 11 finishes on the year including a win at Atlanta which is also a 1.5 mile track. At Kansas, Blaney has three Top 5s and six Top 10s in 12 races at this track. His 15.3 average finish is 6^th best among the field.
• William Byron (+1600) – Sitting one spot ahead of Blaney in the standings is the surprising William Byron. He’s the one driver that nobody is talking about despite having one win on the year which came at Homestead. Even more impressive is that Byron has finished in the Top 8 for eight straight races including a 2^nd place result at Talladega last weekend. He has three straight Top 10 results at Kansas and could pick up his 4^th this weekend.
• Alex Bowman (+1800) – Bowman won two weeks ago at Richmond which pretty much locks him into the Playoffs. However, he has three results outside of the Top 21 in the last four weeks. Bowman sits 14^th in the standings. At Kansas, Bowman has two Top fives and five Top 10s in the last seven races. He was 2^nd in this race two years ago and 8^th last year.
• Christopher Bell (+2500) – Bell’s streak of two straight Top 7 results ended last weekend with a 17^th at Talladega. However, he still has one win on the year and sits 10^th in the standings. Bell has just two career appearances at Kansas which both came last year. He finished 23^rd in the 2020 edition of this race, but showed a marked improvement with a 10^th place result in the fall.

The Best Top 5 Bet for Buschy McBusch Race 400

This is a little bit of an anxious pick considering his subpar season, but Harvick is one of the best bets to finish in the Top 5 at Kansas this weekend.

Despite not having any wins and few Top 5s on the year, Harvick does have seven Top 10s in 10 races this year. He also finished 4^th last weekend at Talladega.

At Kansas, Harvick hasn’t finished worse than 16^th since 2009. He leads all drivers in wins, Top 5s, Top 10s, laps led and average finish.

Harvick has six Top 5s in the last 10 Kansas Races including two in a row. He has a 6.0 average finish in the last three Buschy McBush races including a win in 2018 and a 4^th place result last year.

The Best Top 10 Bet for Buschy McBusch Race 400

Keselowski is my choice for the best bet to finish in the Top 10 despite there being several other good choices like Elliott, Truex and Hamlin.

Keselowski is coming off a big win at Talladega last weekend, which will boost his confidence and give him momentum.

Furthermore, he has five Top 6 results in the last six races including a win in this race in 2019. Over the last four Buschy McBush races, Keselowski was 2^nd in 2017, 14^th in 2018, 1^st in 2019, and 2^nd last year. That’s a 4.7 average finish over the last four spring Kansas races.

One last stat, over the last 12 Kansas races, he has eight Top 10 finishes.

Buschy McBusch Race 400 Checkered Flag

My Top 5 drivers for the Buschy McBusch Race 400 this Sunday are: Hamlin, Harvick, Truex, Elliott and Keselowski. All five of these drivers are more than capable of winning the race.

This Sunday, NASCAR is gearing up for the (we are not making this up) Buschy McBusch Race 400….I don’t think we’re in Kansas anymore – or are we?

Today’s Curator’s Corner features some of Kansas’ Strangest NASCAR Stats: https://t.co/KV6kGjTDTg #NASCARHall #NASCARHistory

— NASCAR Hall of Fame (@NASCARHall) April 26, 2021

In fact, picking the Kansas winner is quite challenging considering that there are at least eight or nine different drivers that have a real shot at winning at this track.

With that said, I am going with Kevin Harvick for the win. I feel a little bit silly picking Harvick again considering he’s let me down already this season. But, I just have a hard time thinking that he won’t win a race at a track that he’s dominated at over his career.

If Keselowski can get the monkey off his back and win at Talladega, a track he’s been good at in his career, then Harvick should be able to do the same this weekend.

My Top 5 Drivers

• Denny Hamlin
• Martin Truex Jr.
• Brad Keselowski
• Kevin Harvick
• Chase Elliott

Buschy McBusch Race 400 Betting Recap

Betting Value

• Kevin Harvick (+900)
• Chase Elliott (+900)
• Kyle Busch (+1000)

Longshot

• Ryan Newman (+10000)

Winner

• Kevin Harvick (+900)