NASCAR Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 Betting Preview, Odds and Picks

On Sunday, March 21^st, NASCAR returns to the east coast as they head to the Atlanta Motor Speedway for the Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500. This event marks the 6^th race of the 2021 season and concludes the early west coast swing for the Cup Series.

Last weekend, Martin Truex Jr. captured the checkered flag in Phoenix and was the first top ranked driver to get a victory in 2021.

Like with the Instacart 500 at Phoenix last Sunday, Kevin Harvick enters as the betting favorite for the Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500. He’s followed closely by Kyle Larson, Brad Keselowski, Martin Truex Jr., Chase Elliott and Denny Hamlin.

Let’s get our safety gear on, strap in tightly, and rev those engines as we make some checkered flag winning Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 betting predictions.

Race Profile

The Atlanta Motor Speedway was changed from an oval to a quad-oval in 1997 nearly 40 years after they first broke ground and built this venue. This track has a 1.5 mile lap distance with four turns at 24 degrees banking.

Sunday’s Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 breaks down as follows:

• Total Miles: 500.5 miles
• Total Laps: 325
• Stage 1: First 105 laps
• Stage 2: Second 105 laps
• Final Stage: Remaining 115 laps

The Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 is set to begin at 3 PM ET and will air live on FOX.

#DoubleDownInATown 😎

More Info ➡️ https://t.co/lSaBPy4gbv pic.twitter.com/i8vz2Ezx3o

— Atlanta Motor Speedway (@amsupdates) September 30, 2020

What to Watch for at Atlanta

The following storylines are worth keeping an eye on at Atlanta’s Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500:

• Will we see another NASCAR favorite win this weekend?
• Can Kevin Harvick get his first win of the season?
• Can Brad Keselowski get his 3^rd win of this race?
• Will Larson or Truex Jr. pick up their 2^nd win of the season?
• Will we get a surprise winner in Atlanta?
• Can Ford win this race for the 5^th straight year?

Previous Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 Winners

The first NASCAR race held at Atlanta came in 1960 and it was won by Fireball Roberts. Since then, Richard Petty, Dale Earnhardt, Bobby Labonte, and Jimmie Johnson would go on to win this race a record four times. Kevin Harvick is the defending race winner.

The following is a list of the previous winners dating back to 2002:

• Kurt Busch in 2002
• Jeff Gordon in 2003, 2011
• Jimmie Johnson in 2004, 2007, 2015-16
• Carl Edwards in 2005, 2008
• Tony Stewart in 2006, 2010
• Kasey Kahne in 2009, 2014
• Denny Hamlin in 2012
• Kyle Busch in 2013
• Brad Keselowski in 2017, 2019
• Kevin Harvick in 2018, 2020

NASCAR Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 Betting Odds

The following betting odds are courtesy of BetOnline:

• Kevin Harvick (+550)
• Kyle Larson (+600)
• Martin Truex Jr (+650)
• Brad Keselowski (+700)
• Chase Elliott (+750)
• Denny Hamlin (+750)
• Joey Logano (+850)
• Kyle Busch (+1100)
• Ryan Blaney (+1400)
• William Byron (+1600)
• Christopher Bell(+2200)
• Kurt Busch (+2200)
• Alex Bowman (+2500)
• Aric Almirola (+5000)
• Austin Dillon (+5000)
• Darrell Wallace Jr (+8000)
• Matt DiBenedetto (+8000)
• Ricky Stenhouse Jr (+8000)
• Tyler Reddick (+8000)
• BJ McLeod (+10000)
• Cole Custer (+10000)
• Erik Jones (+10000)
• Ross Chastain (+10000)
• Ryan Newman (+10000)

Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 Betting Favorites

According to most NASCAR betting sites, the following drivers are considered the odds on favorites to win the Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 on Sunday, March 21^st:

Driver	Wins	Top 5	Top 10	Avg Start	Avg Finish	DNF
Kevin Harvick	3	9	15	16.1	15.8	4
Kyle Larson	0	1	3	8.7	13.8	0
Martin Truex Jr	0	5	10	15.4	16.3	4
Brad Keselowski	2	4	8	15.0	14.6	3
Chase Elliott	0	1	4	17.0	10.0	0

Kevin Harvick (+550)

• Top 5 (-115)
• Top 10 (-345)

Despite being the race favorite, Kevin Harvick hasn’t come close to winning a race this season. Yes, he’s been consistent and has finished in the Top 6 four times, but he’s currently 7^th in the driver standings and 10^th in Playoff points. These are positions that we’re just not used to seeing with Harvick.

After a 20^th finish at Las Vegas two weeks ago, when he started on the pole, Harvick bounced back and finished 6^th last weekend at Phoenix. However, that’s still a poor result for the driver who has dominated that track like no other.

Now, he heads to Atlanta where he’s won three times at including this race on two different occasions including last year and in 2018.

#NASCAR: An eventful day for @KyleLarsonRacin ends in his fourth top 10 of the season. https://t.co/cgcMRWw4P3

— NASCAR on NBC (@NASCARonNBC) March 15, 2021

Over the last six races at this track, Harvick has finished in the Top 10 for all of them. Furthermore, he’s scored four Top 5s and two wins along with leading laps in all six of those races.

Harvick is certainly one of the pre-race favorites for a good reason. I like him to be a Top 10 and Top 5 car. But, until he wins, I suggest being cautious with the #4 car on winning the race.

Kyle Larson (+600)

• Top 5 (+100)
• Top 10 (-305)

If it weren’t for a spinout late in the race at the Daytona road course in Week 2 of the season, Larson would be 1^st or 2^nd in the standings. Currently, he’s 5^th in the driver standings and 3^rd in Playoff points.

Larson has put together three straight Top 7 results including a win at Las Vegas and a 7^th place last weekend at Phoenix. He has a 10.4 average finish on the season.

In six races at this track, Larson has one Top 5 and three Top 10s with a 13.8 average finish which is the second best among active drivers behind only Chase Elliott.

With the way Larson is running this year, and his solid history at 1.5 mile tracks, I peg the #5 car to finish in the Top 10 and the Top 5 this weekend.

Martin Truex Jr (+650)

• Top 5 (+100)
• Top 10 (-305)

Truex was a pleasant surprise last weekend at Phoenix as he proved to be the strongest car in the end and captured his first win of the season which matches his total from all of 2020.

It was a third straight Top 6 finish for Truex who now sits 4^th in the driver standings and 2^nd in Playoff points. However, he now heads to a track where success has been limited.

Like Larson and Keselowski, Truex is one of the sport’s top drivers at 1.5 mile tracks. Unfortunately, Atlanta hasn’t been kind to the 2017 Cup Series champ.

In 22 starts, he has zero wins, five Top 5s, 10 Top 10s, a 16.3 average finish which is 9^th best, and 4 DNFs.

Yet, he has fared well in recent years which gives us some hope for a Top 10 and Top 5 finish this weekend.

Truex has finished in the Top 8 six straight races at this track. Last year, he finished 3^rd in this race. In 2019, he was runner up. He has three straight Top 5 results.

I don’t like Truex’s chances at winning this race, but I do see him being at least in the Top 10.

Brad Keselowski (+700)

• Top 5 (+110)
• Top 10 (-265)

I’m slightly surprised that Brad Keselowski isn’t the betting favorite this weekend. He’s been just as good as Harvick at this track over the last few years and has performed better than Harvick this season.

Currently, Keselowski sits 2^nd in the driver standings and 4^th in Playoff points. Both, are noticeably better than Harvick’s positions.

Last weekend, Keselowski was 4^th and has led laps in three straight races. Now, he heads to a track where the #2 car has been one of the best at in recent years.

In 12 starts at this track, Keselowski has two wins, four Top 5s, eight Top 10s, and a 14.6 average finish which is the 4^th best among active drivers.

He’s won this race twice in the last four years. In fact, since 2017, he’s alternated wins with Harvick over the last four years.

In the last six races at this track, Keselowski has two wins, a runner up, and has finished in the Top 9 for all of them.

I believe Keselowski is the man to beat this weekend, not Harvick. I like his chances to win better than any of the other betting favorites. You can lock him into a Top 10, Top 5, and Top 3 spot.

Chase Elliott (+750)

• Top 5 (+115)
• Top 10 (-250)

The defending Cup Series champ has had a bumpy season so far. He currently sits 6^th in the driver standings and 8^th in Playoff points.

Yet, he had three straight finishes outside of the Top 12 before a 5^th place result at Phoenix last weekend. Is this a sign of better things to come for Elliott?

#NASCAR: Can @chaseelliott continue @TeamHendrick‘s strong start this season with a home win at @amsupdates? https://t.co/HPpBOEyjSu

— NASCAR on NBC (@NASCARonNBC) March 18, 2021

In his five starts at the Atlanta Motor Speedway, Elliott has one Top 5, four Top 10s, and the best average finish of the field at 10.0. He finished 8^th in this race last year and is a good bet for a Top 10 result this weekend as well.

However, I put his ceiling at a Top 5 spot as I’m just not sure if the #9 car has what it takes to outrace other drivers like Harvick, Keselowski, Hamlin and Truex.

The Best Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 Betting Value

The following NASCAR drivers offer betting value for the Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 due to their current betting odds, their past success at the Atlanta Motor Speedway, and their 2021 season so far:

Driver	Wins	Top 5	Top 10	Avg Start	Avg Finish	DNF
Denny Hamlin	1	5	8	11.8	17.3	3
Joey Logano	0	2	5	19.5	16.6	0
Kyle Busch	2	6	9	11.1	13.9	1
Kurt Busch	3	7	15	15.1	14.6	3

Denny Hamlin (+750)

• Top 5 (+115)
• Top 10 (-250)

Hamlin enters this weekend leading the field in the driver standings and Playoff points. Other than an 11^th at Homestead three races ago, Hamlin has finished in the Top 5 in the other four races. He was 3^rd last weekend at Phoenix. He leads the field with three Stage wins as well.

Atlanta has been hit or miss for Hamlin over his career. In 21 starts, he has one win, five Top 5s, and eight Top 10s. Over the last three races at this track, he has a 4^th, 11^th and 5^th which came last year. The three previous races before that were 38^th, 16^th and 28^th.

Hamlin won this race in 2012, but hasn’t come close to winning it again. This weekend, I like Hamlin to be a Top 10 car with a Top 5 ceiling.

Joey Logano (+850)

• Top 5 (+135)
• Top 10 (-225)

Logano sits five points back of his teammate Keselowski for 2^nd in the driver standings. He’s 5^th in Playoff points which is also one spot behind his teammate.

First stage win of 2021 for @joeylogano!@CocaColaRacing | #NASCAR pic.twitter.com/3aSudCn8ID

— FOX: NASCAR (@NASCARONFOX) March 14, 2021

Logano has two straight Top 10 results after a 25^th at Homestead. He was 9^th at Las Vegas and was runner up to Truex last weekend at Phoenix.

At Atlanta, Logano has never crashed out of a race in 14 appearances. However, he has just two Top 5s and five Top 10s. Last year, he finished 10^th.

I don’t see Logano winning this weekend, but he will be a Top 10 car with a Top 5 ceiling.

Kyle Busch (+1100)

• Top 5 (+145)
• Top 10 (-210)

It seemed like Busch had turned things around with a 10^th place result at Homestead and a 3^rd place result at Las Vegas after an average finish of 24.5 over the first two races. Unfortunately, he finished 25^th last weekend at Phoenix after running in the Top 10 for most of the day.

The result dropped him to 15^th in the driver standings and 13^th in Playoff points. This has not been the start to the season that the #18 team was hoping for.

Atlanta has been a decent track for the 2019 Cup Series champion as he has two wins, six Top 5s, nine Top 10s, and a 13.9 average finish which is the 3^rd best in the field.

He last won this race in 2013 and has four Top 7 results in the six races since then. He also has three straight Top 7 results including a runner up in this race last year.

I think Busch will have a decent showing and crack the Top 10 with a Top 5 ceiling.

Kurt Busch (+2200)

• Top 5 (+300)
• Top 10 (-115)

If you are looking to bet on a Busch brother this weekend, it’s probably best to go with the older brother Kurt. Not only has he outperformed Kyle on the season, but he’s also been better than him at Atlanta.

Currently, Kurt sits 10^th in the driver standings after a 15^th place result at Phoenix last weekend. He’s also 11^th in Playoff points.

At Atlanta, Kurt has three wins, seven Top 5s, 15 Top 10s, and a 14.6 average finish which is 5^th best among drivers. Busch is tied with Harvick for most wins and Top 10s, but is second in Top 5s. Yet, Busch has the better average finish.

Busch won at Atlanta in 2009 and 2010. Since his last win, he has eight Top eight results in 10 races. His worst finish was 13^th over that span. He’s been in the Top 8 for five straight races at this track and was 6^th here last year.

I like Busch to be a Top 10 car this weekend and possibly flirt with a Top 5.

The Top Longshot to Win the Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500

Ryan Newman (+10000)

• Top 3 (+2500)
• Top 10 (+250)

There aren’t many solid candidates for the longshot pick this weekend because the winner will most likely come from one of the race favorites. However, I like Newman as a longshot due to his overall success at Atlanta in his career.

He has two Top 5s and nine Top 10s with a 17.8 average finish. These aren’t great numbers, but that’s why it makes him a longshot.

On the season, Newman has one Top 10 result and that came at Homestead. I like his odds for a Top 10 result this weekend.

The Rest of the Field at Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500

The following drivers are worth keeping an eye on at Atlanta Motor Speedway:

• William Byron (+1600) – Byron sits 9^th in the standings with a win at Homestead. He also has two straight 8^th place results following that victory. However, Byron’s best result at Atlanta is 17^th in 2019. He has a 22.7 average finish at this track and was 33^rd last year.
• Christopher Bell (+2200) – Bell sits 8^th in the driver standings and has a win this season as well. He’s scored two straight Top 9 results on the season, but has only raced one time at this track and finished 18^th last year.
• Michael McDowell (+15000) – The Daytona 500 winner has finished 17^th and 23^rd over the last two weeks. Now, he heads to a track where McDowell hasn’t had any success. In 10 appearances, he has a 33.8 average finish, four DNFs, and his best result was 24^th which came last year.

The Best Top 5 Bet for Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500

Kevin Harvick is the odds on favorite to win this weekend, but I feel more comfortable betting on his Top 5 odds (-115) than for the #4 car to win the race.

Harvick has nine Top 5s in 30 starts which is the most among active drivers. However, he has six straight Top 9 results which includes two wins and four Top 5s. Furthermore, he has three straight Top 5 finishes and he starts 7^th this weekend.

The Best Top 10 Bet for Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500

There could be better choices for this pick, but none with better value to finish in the Top 10 than Kurt Busch at -115 odds.

Busch is tied with Harvick for the most Top 10 finishes at 15. He also has a 14.6 average finish which is 5^th best.

The #1 car has three victories at this track and has scored five straight Top 8 results. Furthermore, over the last 11 Atlanta races, Busch has one win, five Top 5s, and nine Top 10s. His worst finish was 13^th over that span.

Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 Checkered Flag

My Top 5 drivers are Harvick, Larson, Hamlin, Truex Jr. and Keselowski. Since Truex and Larson have already won this season, I am going to eliminate them from winning on Sunday as I don’t see either winning again so soon.

I believe the race winner will come from Harvick, Hamlin or Keselowski. All three are looking for their first win of the season and all three have won at this track. However, Hamlin hasn’t won in many years and I just don’t see him edging out the other two this weekend.

Brad @keselowski‘s “Tribute2Veterans” paint scheme for Atlanta will honor service members and their families.@Team_Penske | #RaceHub pic.twitter.com/i5Qaq3GeBc

— FOX: NASCAR (@NASCARONFOX) March 17, 2021

With that said, my race winner will be either Harvick or Keselowski. These two drivers have won the last four races at this track as they have alternated between victories since 2017.

For me, the tie breaker goes to how each is racing in 2021 and that edge goes to Keselowski. He sits 2^nd in the standings while Harvick is 7^th. He also has more Top 5s, more laps led, and more Playoff points than Harvick.

I see Ford dominating this race on Sunday, with Keselowski leading the charge and capturing the checkered flag.

My Top 5 Drivers

• Kevin Harvick
• Kyle Larson
• Brad Keselowski
• Denny Hamlin
• Martin Truex Jr.

Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 Betting Recap

Betting Value:

• Denny Hamlin (+750)
• Joey Logano (+850)
• Kyle Busch (+1100)
• Kurt Busch (+2200)

Longshot

• Ryan Newman (+10000)

Winner

• Brad Keselowski (+700)