NASCAR Toyota Owners 400 Betting Preview, Odds and Predictions

On Sunday, April 18^th, NASCAR finishes off three straight short track races by heading to Richmond for the Toyota Owners 400.

This is the 9^th race of the season and the first spring Richmond race since 2019. They didn’t race at Richmond last spring due to the pandemic. However, the Cup Series still held a fall race in 2020.

Last weekend, Martin Truex Jr. became the first driver to win two races in 2021. Truex, along with his teammate Denny Hamlin, sit at the top of the standings.

For this weekend’s event, online sports betting sites have Truex and Hamlin as two of the betting favorites. Chase Elliott, Kyle Larson and Brad Keselowski are right behind the Joe Gibbs Racing teammates as the Top 5 odds on favorites.

Let’s put on our safety gear, strap up tightly, rev those engines and make some checkered flag winning predictions for the Toyota Owners 400.

Race Profile

Richmond Raceway is a “D-shaped” track with a lap distance of 0.75 miles and banking of 14 degrees in the four turns. Sunday’s Toyota Owners 400 breaks down as follows:

• Total Miles: 300 miles
• Total Laps: 400 laps
• Stage 1: First 80 laps
• Stage 2: Second 155 laps
• Final Stage: Remaining 165 laps

The Toyota Owners 400 is set to begin at 3pm ET and will air live on FOX.

ɪꜱ ɪᴛ ꜱᴜɴᴅᴀʏ ʏᴇᴛ ¯_(ツ)_/¯#ToyotaOwners400 x #RR75th pic.twitter.com/lXPn2YdpB9

— Richmond Raceway (@RichmondRaceway) April 15, 2021

What to Watch for at Richmond

With all of the action heading into this weekend, the following storylines are worth keeping an eye on at Richmond Raceway on April 18^th:

• Will Martin Truex Jr. win two races in a row?
• Can Denny Hamlin get his first win of 2021?
• Will Kevin Harvick or Kyle Busch get into victory lane?
• Will we see a first time winner on Sunday?
• Can Toyota win this race for the 3^rd straight year?

Previous Toyota Owners 400 Winners

The first iteration of the Toyota Owners 400 was run in 1953 and won by Lee Petty. Since then, Lee’s son Richard Petty would go on to win this race a record six times. Martin Truex Jr. is the defending race winner from 2019 as they didn’t race at Richmond last year.

The following is a list of previous winners dating back to 2005:

• Kasey Kahne in 2005
• Dale Earnhardt Jr. in 2006
• Jimmie Johnson in 2007
• Clint Bowyer in 2008
• Kyle Busch in 2009-2012, 2018
• Kevin Harvick in 2013
• Joey Logano in 2014, 2017
• Kurt Busch in 2015
• Carl Edwards in 2016
• Martin Truex Jr. in 2019

NASCAR Toyota Owners 400 Betting Odds

The following betting odds are courtesy of BetOnline:

• Martin Truex Jr (+400)
• Brad Keselowski (+550)
• Denny Hamlin (+650)
• Kyle Larson (+700)
• Chase Elliott (+750)
• Joey Logano (+850)
• Kevin Harvick (+1000)
• Kyle Busch (+1000)
• Ryan Blaney (+1400)
• William Byron (+1600)
• Alex Bowman (+2000)
• Christopher Bell(+2800)
• Austin Dillon (+4000)
• Kurt Busch (+4000)
• Aric Almirola (+6600)
• Tyler Reddick (++6600)
• Darrell Wallace Jr (+8000)
• Matt DiBenedetto (+8000)
• Ryan Newman (+8000)
• Cole Custer (+10000)
• Ricky Stenhouse Jr (+10000)

Toyota Owners 400 Betting Favorites

According to most NASCAR betting sites, the following drivers are considered the odds on favorites to win the Toyota Owners 400 on Sunday:

Driver	Wins	Top 5	Top 10	Avg Start	Avg Finish	DNF
Martin Truex Jr	2	6	12	13.3	17.3	4
Brad Keselowski	2	6	12	10.0	12.2	1
Denny Hamlin	3	13	17	10.0	9.2	0
Kyle Larson	1	2	5	9.0	11.7	1
Chase Elliott	0	3	4	16.3	12.0	0

Martin Truex Jr (+400)

• Top 5 (-150)
• Top 10 (-400)

Truex Jr. enters this weekend’s race as the betting favorite and sitting 2^nd overall in the standings. However, he is first in Playoff points as he leads the field with two wins on the year.

His latest victory came last weekend at Martinsville where he pulled away late in the race to take the checkered flag. Truex’s first win came at Phoenix four races ago. The #19 car now has three Top 5s and five Top 10s on the season.

.@MartinTruex_Jr will lead the field to green from the #BuschPole Sunday at @RichmondRaceway! pic.twitter.com/cCi35gMpQr

— NASCAR (@NASCAR) April 14, 2021

Truex is the betting favorite for this weekend’s Richmond race largely because he has dominated at this track over the last four races. During that span, Truex has two wins, a runner up and a third place finish. He’s also led the most laps in three of those four races.

Prior to this stretch, Truex had a very mediocre run at Richmond. In 29 starts, he has a 17.3 average finish which is the second worst among the Top 10 drivers in the standings. He also has four DNFs.

With how well Truex is running this season, five Top 9s in the last six races, I like the #19 car to finish in the Top 10 with a Top 5 ceiling. He could be a threat to win for the second straight week if a few things break his way late in the race. Truex will also have the added benefit of starting on the pole.

Brad Keselowski (+550)

• Top 5 (-105)
• Top 10 (-230)

Keselowski had a very disappointing result at Martinsville last weekend when he finished 33^rd overall due to a crash. That’s three straight finishes outside of the Top 10 and two of those three results were 28^th or worse.

Keselowski sits 9^th in the standings due to these poor finishes over the last month and needs to turn things around or be in danger of falling out of the Top 10. He only has three Top 5s and three Top 10s in eight races so far.

Richmond has been a kind track to Keselowski over his career. The #2 car has two wins, six Top 5s, 12 Top 10s and a 12.2 average finish.

Keselowski won the fall Richmond race last year and has five straight Top 9 results at this track. In fact, since his 2014 win, he has four Top 5s and eight Top 10s in the last 12 races at this track.

I like Keselowski to finish in the Top 10 this weekend, but he has a Top 5 ceiling. With his inconsistent 2021 season so far, I just don’t have confidence that he will be contend for the checkered flag.

Denny Hamlin (+650)

• Top 5 (-115)
• Top 10 (-285)

“Mr. Consistency” Denny Hamlin still hasn’t won a race on the season, but he continues to lead the field in the standings as he racks up Top 5 finishes on a weekly basis.

Last weekend, Hamlin finished 3^rd at Martinsville after leading the most laps. His car faded over the final laps, but he still produced a 5^th straight Top 5 result. It was also his fourth Top 3 finish of the year.

In eight races, still leads all drivers in Top 5s, Top 10s, and stage wins. Now, he will head to a track where Hamlin has had success at in his career.

In 28 starts at this track, Hamlin has three wins, 13 Top 5s, 17 Top 10s and a 9.2 average finish with zero DNFs. His average finish is the second best among active drivers. These impressive numbers look even better when you examine his last 10 Richmond races.

Over that span, Hamlin has one win, six Top 5s, and eight Top 6s. His worst result was 16^th.

Lock Hamlin in for a Top 10 and Top 5 result. He will also be a contender to finish in the Top 3 and challenge for a checkered flag.

Kyle Larson (+700)

• Top 5 (+100)
• Top 10 (-2530)

After getting caught up in a wreck at the Bristol Dirt Race two events ago, Larson bounced back in Martinsville last weekend with a 5^th place result. That was a strong performance for Kyle as he’s been notoriously bad at that track in his career.

Larson remains 4^th in the standings with one win, four Top 5s, six Top 10s and an 11.0 average finish. He has five Top 7 results in the last six races.

At Richmond, Larson has one win, two Top 5s, five Top 10s, and an 11.7 average finish which is the 5^th best among active drivers. He’s accomplished these stats in just 12 career starts.

Over the last five races at this track, Larson has one win, one Top 5 and four Top 7s. He crashed out of this race two years ago.

Larson is a Top 10 car each week. This Sunday, I can see the #5 car cracking the Top 5. However, I am a bit hesitant on locking him in for a Top 5 result considering how well other drivers race at this track.

Chase Elliott (+750)

• Top 5 (+110)
• Top 10 (-210)

Elliott moved up two spots in the standings after a 2^nd place result last weekend at Martinsville. If he had more time, I believe Elliott would’ve chased down Truex for the win. I picked Elliott to win the Martinsville race. He almost made me look incredibly smart.

Chase Elliott isn’t concerned about going winless in the first eight races of 2021. He explains: pic.twitter.com/p4UW55GhMy

— Bob Pockrass (@bobpockrass) April 14, 2021

This weekend, Elliott heads to a track where he’s never won at. In 10 career starts, Elliott has three Top 5s, four Top 10s, and a 12.0 average finish which is 6^th best among the field. He finished 5^th in last year’s fall Richmond race which was his third Top 5 in the last five races at this track.

I see Elliott being a Top 10 car with a Top 10 ceiling. I’m not as confident in the #9 car this Sunday’s race as I was for Martinsville last weekend.

The Best Toyota Owners 400 Betting Value

The following NASCAR drivers offer betting value for the Toyota Owners 400 due to their current betting odds, their past success at Richmond Raceway, and their 2021 season so far:

Driver	Wins	Top 5	Top 10	Avg Start	Avg Finish	DNF
Joey Logano	2	10	13	10.3	10.8	1
Kevin Harvick	3	15	26	12.7	9.7	0
Kyle Busch	6	18	23	11.9	6.8	0

Joey Logano (+850)

• Top 5 (+110)
• Top 10 (-210)

After winning the Bristol Dirt Race two events ago, Logano followed that up with a 6^th place result last weekend. He fell one spot in the standings to 3^rd overall due to Truex winning the race and surpassing him for 2^nd place.

Logano has four Top 9 results in the last five races. His 9.0 average finish on the year has been very impressive as he continues to find a way to be a contender each week.

At Richmond, Logano has two wins, 10 Top 5s, 13 Top 10s, and a 10.8 average finish. Over the last 13 races at this track, he has two wins, eight Top 5s, and 11 Top 10s. His worst result was 14^th overall. Last year, Logano finished 3^rd in the fall Richmond race.

In the 2019 spring Richmond race, the last time NASCAR held this event, Logano finished 2^nd to Martin Truex Jr.

I like Logano to be a Top 10 and Top 5 driver this weekend. I can see him sneaking into contention for the checkered flag late in the race. There’s plenty of value with Logano’s Top 5 odds.

Kevin Harvick (+1000)

• Top 5 (+145)
• Top 10 (-175)

Although he sits 8^th in the driver standings, this isn’t the same Kevin Harvick we’re accustomed to seeing. He has yet to win a race on the year and hasn’t even been in contention for a checkered flag.

His best finish on the season was 4^th in the Daytona 500. That’s also the only race where he led any laps. Harvick hasn’t led one single lap in the last seven races on the season. He’s been a Top 10 driver this year with six Top 10s in eight races, but his ceiling has been Top 5 at best.

I believe that trend will continue this Sunday.

In 39 Richmond starts, Harvick has three wins, 15 Top 5s, 26 Top 10s and a 9.7 average finish which is 3^rd best among the field. He has the second most Top 5s and the most Top 10s among active drivers.

With that said, Harvick hasn’t won at this track in eight years. He has 10 Top 10s since then including five Top 7s in a row. I like the #4 car to crack the Top 10 and flirt with a Top 5 result. His Top 10 odds offer a little value.

Kyle Busch (+1000)

• Top 5 (+120)
• Top 10 (-200)

Kyle Busch moved up one spot in the standings to 11^th overall after he finished 10^th at Martinsville last weekend. That was just his fourth Top 10 on the season and his second in the last four races.

Busch has won just one race in the last 40+ events. It’s a slump that many fans and pundits are starting to become concerned about. Yet, if there was a track where Busch could break out of that slump it would be Richmond.

Win: 102

Date: 05/01/09

Track: @RichmondRaceway

Driver: @KyleBusch

Series: #NASCAR Xfinity Series #Chasing365 | #TeamToyota pic.twitter.com/r1GBevYXRi

— Joe Gibbs Racing (@JoeGibbsRacing) April 13, 2021

In 30 career starts at this track, Busch has six wins, 18 Top 5s, 23 Top 10s, and a 6.8 average finish. He leads all active drivers in wins, Top 5s, and average finish. He’s second to Harvick in Top 10s.

Over the last six races at this track, Busch has two wins, three Top 5s and six Top 9s. He’s also led laps in every one of those races. Last year, Busch finished 6^th in the fall Richmond race despite the same slump he’s in now.

I like Busch to be a Top 10 car on Sunday with a Top 5 ceiling. I wouldn’t consider him a contender to win any race until he actually wins one this season.

The Top Longshot to Win the Toyota Owners 400

Ryan Newman (+8000)

• Top 5 (+1000)
• Top 10 (+240)

Newman was my longshot pick last weekend and someone I thought would finish in the Top 10. Unfortunately, he had some car issues at Martinsville that resulted in a 19^th place result despite running in the Top 10 for most of the race.

This weekend, I feel the same amount Newman’s chances for a Top 10 result. In 37 starts at Richmond, he has one win, eight Top 5s, and 20 Top 10s. His 12.6 average finish is 8^th best among the field.

Over the last three Richmond races, Newman has one Top 5 and two Top 10s. In the last seven races at this track, he has two Top 5s and four Top 10s.

I don’t see Newman winning the race. He’s a definite longshot to finish in the Top 5 as well. But, a Top 10 result isn’t a farfetched idea.

The Rest of the Field at Richmond

The following drivers are worth keeping an eye on in this weekend’s Toyota Owners 400:

• Ryan Blaney (+1400) – Blaney currently sits 5^th in the standings with a victory on the season and three stage wins. However, he’s had no success at Richmond in his young career. In nine starts, Blaney hasn’t even cracked the Top 10 at this track. His 24.8 average finish is the worst among Top 10 drivers.
• William Byron (+1600) – Byron sits 6^th in the standings, just one spot behind Blaney. He also has a win on the year. Additionally, he also has struggled at Richmond like Blaney has. In five career starts, Byron has an 18.0 average finish with a 12^th place result as his highest finish.
• Christopher Bell (+2800) – Bell’s only race at this track came last fall when he finished 15^th That’s not a bad result for the young JGR driver. He could lean on his teammates this weekend to find some success and possibly crack the Top 10. Bell sits 10^th in the standings with a win on the season and four Top 10s.
• Kurt Busch (+4000) – The elder Busch brother has two wins, seven Top 5s, 15 Top 10s, and a 15.3 average finish in 39 starts at Richmond. He sits 15^th in the driver standings and hasn’t cracked the Top 10 at this track since 2017.

The Best Top 5 Bet for the Toyota Owners 400

Joey Logano and Denny Hamlin are my picks as the best bets to finish in the Top 5. However, since I pick Hamlin almost weekly for this spot, I am going to take Logano (+110) this time around.

#NASCAR | Joey Logano (6th) is the top #Ford finisher @MartinsvilleSwy Sunday evening.

Top-10 Ford Finishers

6️⃣ – @joeylogano

9️⃣ – @KevinHarvick pic.twitter.com/FWKsjz4QGt

— Ford Performance (@FordPerformance) April 12, 2021

In the last 14 races at Richmond, Logano has eight Top 5s along with two wins. He took the checkered flag in this race back in 2017. Since then, Logano has four Top 5s in six races at this track.

In Logano’s last 20 Richmond races, he’s finished in the Top 5 for half of them. I like the #22 car to crack the Top 5 this Sunday.

The Best Top 10 Bet for the Toyota Owners 400

I’ve been down on Kevin Harvick for the last month or so due to his inability to contend for a checkered flag in 2021. However, I believe he’s one of the best bets to finish inside the Top 10 (-175).

For his career, Harvick has a 9.7 average finish at Richmond over 39 races. He leads all active drivers with 26 Top 10 finishes.

Harvick has five straight Top 7 results and 13 Top 10 finishes in the last 18 Richmond races. Any way you slice this Richmond pie, Harvick is a perennial Top 10 driver.

Toyota Owners 400 Checkered Flag

My Top 5 drivers for the Toyota Owners 400 are Joey Logano, Kyle Larson and three of the four Joe Gibbs Racing drivers: Martin Truex Jr., Denny Hamlin and Kyle Busch.

Out of the JGR trio, I like Hamlin’s chances the best. He’s been the most consistent on the season. Truex won last weekend and it’s extremely rare in his Cup Series career to win two races in a row. Busch is still in a slump and I don’t trust him to win a race.

Of Larson, Logano and Hamlin, only Denny has yet to win a race on the season. I believe that all changes this weekend as the #11 car will find a way to take the checkered flag. He’s been too good over the first two months not to win a race. But I plan on placing bets on each of these drivers this weekend, sprinkling a little bit on everyone in my top 5.

My Top 5 Drivers

• Martin Truex Jr.
• Denny Hamlin
• Joey Logano
• Kyle Larson
• Kyle Busch

Toyota Owners 400 Betting Recap

Betting Value

• Joey Logano (+850)        
• Kevin Harvick (+1000)    
• Kyle Busch (+1000)          

Longshot

• Ryan Newman (+8000)

Winner

• Denny Hamlin (+650)