On Sunday, August 2nd, NASCAR returns to the New Hampshire Motor Speedway for the Foxwoods Resort Casino 301. This is the 20th race of the regular season and things are heating up in the standings and on the track as the sport closes in on its Playoffs.
NASCAR was off last weekend after racing on the previous Thursday at Kansas. Denny Hamlin won the race and will start second this weekend. Aric Almirola will start on the pole thanks to the luck of the draw.
Once again, Kevin Harvick is the odds on favorite to win this weekend’s race. According to most NASCAR betting sites, he’s followed closely by Denny Hamlin, Kyle Busch, Martin Truex Jr. and Chase Elliott.
Race Profile
The New Hampshire Motor Speedway (NHMS) is a short track with a lap length of 1.05 miles. It’s shaped like an oval with four turns and two straightaways. This track is also affectionately known as “The Magic Mile.” Sunday’s race breaks down as follows:
- Total Miles: 318.46 miles
- Total Laps: 301 laps
- Stage 1: First 75 laps
- Stage 2: Second 75 laps
- Final Stage: Remaining 151 laps
The Foxwoods Resort Casino 301 is set to begin at 3 PM ET and will air live on NBC Sports.
A wicked good time awaits. @NHMS | #NASCARSalutes pic.twitter.com/uOaUNHrc5Q
— NASCAR (@NASCAR) July 29, 2020
What to Watch for at New Hampshire
With all of the excitement heading into NASCAR’s first race in August, the following storylines are worth keeping an eye on at New Hampshire on Sunday:
- Will Ford win this race for the 3rd year in a row?
- Can Kevin Harvick win this race for the 3rd straight year?
- Will Denny Hamlin win for the second straight week?
- Can one of the Busch brothers return to victory lane?
- Will Team Penske take the checkered flag?
Previous Foxwoods Resort Casino 301 Winners
The first Foxwoods Resort Casino 301 was run in 1993 under the name of Slick 50 300 and won by Rusty Wallace. Jeff Burton holds the record for the most wins of this race at three when he won from 1997 to 1999. Kevin Harvick has won the last two Foxwoods Resort Casino 301 races.
The following is a list of the previous winners:
- Jeff Burton in 1997-1999
- Tony Stewart in 2000, 2005
- Dale Jarrett In 2001
- Ward Burton in 2002
- Jimmie Johnson in 2003, 2010
- Kurt Busch in 2004, 2008
- Kyle Busch in 2006, 2015
- Denny Hamlin in 2007, 2017
- Joey Logano in 2009
- Ryan Newman in 2011
- Kasey Kahne in 2012
- Brian Vickers in 2013
- Brad Keselowski in 2014
- Matt Kenseth in 2016
- Kevin Harvick in 2018, 2019
Nine former winners will take the starting field this Sunday. Five previous winners have won this race twice: Kevin Harvick, Jimmie Johnson, Kurt Busch, Denny Hamlin and Kyle Busch.
Magic moments at #TheMagicMile! 🏁 #FansFirst pic.twitter.com/9erXggTvFm
— New Hampshire Motor Speedway (@NHMS) July 31, 2020
NASCAR Foxwoods Resort Casino 301 Betting Odds
The following betting odds are courtesy of BetOnline:
- Kevin Harvick (+400)
- Denny Hamlin (+500)
- Kyle Busch (+600)
- Martin Truex Jr (+800)
- Chase Elliott (+900)
- Joey Logano (+1000)
- Brad Keselowski (+1200)
- Ryan Blaney (+1200)
- Aric Almirola (+2000)
- Erik Jones (+2500)
- Kurt Busch (+2500)
- Matt DiBenedetto (+2500)
- Alex Bowman (+4000
- Clint Bowyer (+5000)
- Jimmie Johnson(+5000)
- Matt Kenseth (+5000)
- William Byron (+6000)
- Tyler Reddick (+7500)
- Ryan Newman (+8000)
- Austin Dillon (+10000)
- Christopher Bell (+10000)
- Cole Custer (+10000)
- Chris Buescher (+25000)
- Ricky Stenhouse Jr (+30000)
- Ty Dillon (+35000)
- Darrell Wallace Jr (+50000)
- Ryan Preece (+75000)
Betting Favorites to Win the Foxwoods Resort Casino 301
According to most NASCAR betting sites, the following drivers are considered the odds on favorites to win the Foxwoods Resort Casino 301 from New Hampshire.
| Driver | Wins | Top 5 | Top 10 | Avg Start | Avg Finish | DNF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Harvick | 4 | 12 | 20 | 12.9 | 12.8 | 1 |
| Denny Hamlin | 3 | 10 | 15 | 10.7 | 9.9 | 0 |
| Kyle Busch | 3 | 11 | 16 | 9.4 | 12.6 | 0 |
| Martin Truex Jr. | 0 | 6 | 12 | 10.8 | 12.3 | 1 |
| Chase Elliot | 0 | 1 | 1 | 10.7 | 17.2 | 0 |
Kevin Harvick (+400)
- Top 3 (+115)
- Top 5 (-143)
- Top 10 (-500)
Heading into August, Kevin Harvick continues to be the best driver in the series. He sits on top of the driver standings with a 97 point lead over Brad Keselowski. He’s also first in the Playoff standings with a two point lead over Denny Hamlin.
Harvick also leads all drivers in Top 5s (12), Top 10s (16) and laps led (700). He’s second to Hamlin in wins with four.
At Kansas, Harvick finished 4th overall, which was the 6th straight race that he’s had a Top 5 result and the 7th straight race that he’s finished in the Top 10. During that span, he’s also won twice and as a runner up.
The two dominant cars of 2020 put on a show for the win in 2019 at @NHMS. @KevinHarvick | @dennyhamlin pic.twitter.com/BddVbpQTCe
— NASCAR (@NASCAR) July 30, 2020
What makes things even scarier for the rest of the drivers is that Harvick has been dominating at New Hampshire having won this race two years in a row. He’s also won at NHMS three out of the last five races and four times in his career.
Harvick leads all drivers at this track in wins (4) and Top 5s (12). He’s tied for third in Top 10s and his 12.8 average finish is 8th best among current drivers.
Harvick is a lock to finish in the Top 10 this weekend as he’s done so in seven of the last nine New Hampshire races. Additionally, I expect him to be a Top 5 and Top 3 car. He has seven Top 5 finishes and five Top 3 finishes in the last nine races at this track.
Harvick will be the man to beat on Sunday. The only question is whether or not someone can beat him.
Denny Hamlin (+500)
- Top 3 (+130)
- Top 5 (-130)
- Top 10 (-435)
The only driver to contend with Harvick this season is Denny Hamlin who leads the series with five wins in 2020. Hamlin sits 4th in the driver standings, but is second in the Playoff standings just two points behind Harvick.
Hamlin won last week in Kansas and has the 2nd most Top 5s (10) and third most Top 10s (11) in the series. He’s also third in laps led and heads back to a track where he has three career wins at.
Hamlin has won this race on two occasions with the last victory coming in 2017. He has eight straight Top 15 results and a 9.9 average finish which leads all active drivers.
Hamlin finished 2nd in this race last year after leading 113 laps, which were the second most on that day. He also has a 7.25 average finish over the last four races at this track.
Like Harvick, I believe Hamlin will be a Top 10 car. However, I can’t be certain he will be a Top 5 or Top 3 car based on his results over the last eight races at this track. One year he’s Top 5 and the next year he’s finishing between 11th and 15th.
However, as we’ve seen in 2020, you can’t count out Hamlin for any race. So, let’s go with a Top 5 result, but fall short on taking the checkered flag.
Kyle Busch (+600)
- Top 3 (+185)
- Top 5 (+115)
- Top 10 (-305)
Although he led the second most laps at Kansas last week, Busch still ended up 11th overall. However, that result bumped him up one spot in the standings to 9th overall. Additionally, he’s 12th in Playoff points with a buffer of 85 points above the cutoff.
Busch has not won this year, which is a huge surprise. This 19 race winless drought has led many to be concerned over Busch’s chances at repeating as champion. He does have the third most Top 5s (8) on the season, but just doesn’t look like the Kyle Busch we’ve grown accustomed to seeing each week.
At New Hampshire, Busch does have three wins at this track. His most recent win came three races ago. Last year, he was 8th in this race and 2nd in 2018. He’s also led laps in six straight events at this track.
10 of his last 12 NHMS races have seen Busch finish in the Top 10. During that span, he’s also had seven Top 5s and two wins.
Busch has a knack for short track racing and normally would be the odds on favorite to win. However, his subpar driving in 2020 has caused many online betting sites to stop listing him as the favorite.
It’s also stopped me from picking him to win. I believe Busch will be a Top 10 and Top 5 car, but I’m not sure he will crack the Top 3. And, like a broken record, I will not pick Busch to win a race until he actually does so.
Martin Truex Jr (+800)
- Top 3 (+225)
- Top 5 (+120)
- Top 10 (-275)
Four the 4th straight week, Martin Truex Jr. remains 7th in the driver standings after finishing 3rd at Kansas last week. He also led 44 laps and had a strong car, but fell short to teammate Denny Hamlin in the end. Truex now has two Top 3 finishes in the last three races and also sits 7th in Playoff points.
Like his teammate Kyle Busch, Truex has had a down year. He only has one win and four Top 5s, which is tied for the lowest among the Top 10 drivers in the standings. He has 3 DNFs on the year and a 14.5 average finish, which are all well below Truex’s standards.
Unfortunately for Truex, he has never won a race at New Hampshire, which leads me to question how or why he’s listed so high in the odds on favorites. There are better options in my value section below that are more worthy of a wager than Truex.
At best, Truex will crack the Top 5 since he’s done that in three of the last four races at this track. More than likely, he will be a Top 10 car which he’s done in five straight races at NHMS. Last year, Truex finished 6th overall.
I don’t see the #19 car contending for the checkered flag or a Top 3 spot. I’m also not confident in a Top 5 result. His Top 10 odds offer no value at all. There are better options this weekend than Truex. But, if you insist on betting on Truex, then put a small flier on his Top 5 odds of +120.
Chase Elliott (+900)
- Top 3 (+275)
- Top 5 (+160)
- Top 10 (-235)
For the second straight week, Elliott sits 5th overall in the driver standings after a 12th place result at Kansas. It was his second straight week of finishing 12th and the fourth straight finish outside of the Top 10. In fact, he’s finished 11th or worse in six of his last seven races.
Those certainly aren’t numbers that instill confidence. Elliott is lucky to remain in the Top 5 in the standings and 6th in Playoff points considering how he’s raced the last several weeks.
In addition to his recent racing trends, Elliott has never won at New Hampshire and has the second worst average finish (17.2) among Top 10 drivers in the standings. Elliott has one Top 5 in his six career races which came in 2018. Last year, he finished 29th overall.
I stopped short of saying Truex was the worst of the favorites because Elliott takes that label this weekend at New Hampshire.
I don’t see the #9 car finishing in the Top 3 or Top 5. His ceiling this weekend is a Top 10 result, which has little value at -235 odds. With his poor record at New Hampshire, and his recent subpar racing trends on the season, I would avoid Chase Elliott altogether on Sunday.
The Best Foxwoods Resort Casino 301 Betting Value
The following NASCAR drivers offer betting value for the Foxwoods Resort Casino 301 due to their current betting odds, their past success at the New Hampshire Motor Speedway, and their 2020 season so far:
| Driver | Wins | Top 5 | Top 10 | Avg Start | Avg Finish | DNF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Logano | 2 | 6 | 11 | 17.5 | 15.2 | 2 |
| Brad Keselowski | 1 | 7 | 12 | 10.6 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Kurt Busch | 3 | 8 | 15 | 11.1 | 16.1 | 2 |
| Matt Kenseth | 3 | 12 | 21 | 18.7 | 11.6 | 1 |
Joey Logano (+1000)
- Top 3 (+350)
- Top 5 (+180)
- Top 10 (-200)
Of the top drivers, Joey Logano had the worst performance last weekend at Kansas. He finished 35th overall due to a crash. That also dropped him to 6th in the standings. However, he remains 4th in Playoff points.
Logano has had a rough stretch since Martinsville. Over the last eight races, Logano has just one Top 5 and two Top 10s. Even more concerning is that the #22 car has four finishes at 24th or worse.
Logano will be looking to turn things around at New Hampshire where he’s won at twice in his career. One of his victories came in this race back in 2009. His last NHMS win came in 2014.
It’s #TrophyTuesday: @NHMS edition! 🦞
Brad @keselowski and @joeylogano both took home New Hampshire’s unique 🏆 after the two teammates won races in 2014! #NASCAR | #PenskePast pic.twitter.com/8xnw3pHWKK
— Team Penske (@Team_Penske) July 28, 2020
Over the last nine races at this track, Logano has seven Top 10s, four Top 5s, and one victory. He finished 9th in this race over the last two years and should cruise to another Top 10 finish this year.
The challenge is picking where Logano will finish overall in the Top 10. Can he be a contender on Sunday or will he be lucky to just finish inside the Top 10?
I’ve been high on Logano a few times over the last month and he’s burned me. He hasn’t won since Phoenix, which was prior to NASCAR’s hiatus.
I think Logano has potential to crack the Top 5, but I don’t see him being in the Top 3 or winning on Sunday. There is value with a Top 5 finish at +180 odds, so it’s worth a small flier. More than likely, he will finish somewhere between 6th and 10th.
Brad Keselowski (+1200)
- Top 3 (+250)
- Top 5 (+145)
- Top 10 (-250)
With his 2nd place result at Kansas last week, Brad Keselowski moved up to 2nd overall in the driver standings and 3rd in Playoff points. Keselowski has four straight Top 9 finishes and six straight Top 11 finishes.
In fact, since NASCAR returned, Keselowski has 12 Top 10s, six Top 5s and two wins. His worst finish was 19th at Talladega. Keselowski is 2nd in Top 10s (14) on the season and leads all drivers with five stage wins.
At New Hampshire, Keselowski has one win, seven Top 5s, 12 Top 10s, zero DNFs and an 11.0 average finish, which is second best among current drivers. He’s finished in the Top 10 a NHMS in four of the last five races and won the Foxwoods Resort Casino 301 in 2014. Last year, he was 10th.
Other than Hamlin and Harvick, Keselowski has been the best driver on the track since the sport returned from a forced shutdown in March.
I see Keselowski finishing inside the Top 10, Top 5 and even the Top 3. He can be a contender on Sunday provided he stays out of trouble. At Bristol, another famous short track, Keselowski won the race. So, don’t be surprised if you see the #2 car taking the checkered flag on Sunday.
Kurt Busch (+2500)
- Top 3 (+750)
- Top 5 (+400)
- Top 10 (+105)
Despite finishing 9th at Kansas last week, Kurt Busch fell one spot in the standings to 10th overall as his brother Kyle passed him up by one point.
Although he hasn’t won a race this season, Busch does have 12 Top 10s which is the 3rd most this season and one stage win. He’s 119 points above the Playoff cutline and appears to be heading to another postseason birth. Busch has three straight Top 9 finishes and heads to a track where he’s had success at.
In 36 career starts at New Hampshire, Busch has three wins, eight Top 5s, 15 Top 10s and a 16.1 average finish. He finished 18th here last year and 8th in 2018. He has three Top 8 finishes in the last five races at this track.
This weekend, I think Busch has a solid chance to crack the Top 10. So there is value at a return just above even money. I don’t see Kurt being a Top 5, Top 3 or winner this Sunday.
Matt Kenseth (+5000)
- Top 3 (+1200)
- Top 5 (+600)
- Top 10 (+150)
Matt Kenseth’s return to NASCAR hasn’t gone as well as longtime fans initially hoped. He’s been a middle of the pack driver every week except for Pocono and Indy. Last week, he was 17th at Kansas and remains 28th in the standings for four straight races.
I don’t believe that Kenseth will be a contender for the checkered flag this weekend, but I do like his value for a Top 10 finish.
At New Hampshire, Kenseth has three career wins, 12 Top 5s which is tied for the most among active drivers, 21 Top 10s which is second most among active drivers, the 4th best average finish for current drivers at 11.6, and just one DNF in 37 starts.
In other words, Kenseth has been one of the best drivers at this track during his career. In his last 11 races at NHMS, he has nine Top 9s, seven Top 5s, and three wins. His last victory came in 2016 in this race.
Kenseth was able to turn back the hands of time at Indy a few weeks ago, maybe he can do the same this weekend at New Hampshire and score us a Top 10 result.
The Top Longshot to Win the Foxwoods Resort Casino 301
Ryan Newman (+8000) is my longshot pick for this weekend’s race in New Hampshire. In addition to his long odds to win the race, Newman also has the following lines for possible wagers:
- Top 3 (+2000)
- Top 5 (+900)
- Top 10 (+225)
Newman’s season has been defined by his crash earlier this year. Unfortunately, he only has one Top 10 on the season, sits 26th overall in the standings, and hasn’t offered much on the track in 2020.
With that said, Newman is a veteran driver that loves short track racing. In 34 starts at New Hampshire, Newman has three wins, seven Top 5s, 20 Top 10s which is the 3rd most among active drivers, and a 13.5 average finish which is 10th best among current drivers.
In his last two races at NHMS, Newman has finished 7th and 6th. I believe his Top 10 odds are worthy of a longshot flier for those betting daredevils out there.
Foxwoods Resort Casino 301 Checkered Flag
Once again, my Top 5 drivers features the usual cast of characters: Kevin Harvick, Kyle Busch, Denny Hamlin, Ryan Blaney and Brad Keselowski.
Looking for favorites on Sunday?
These 4️⃣ drivers have combined to win the last 8️⃣ races at @NHMS. pic.twitter.com/Xqk5T2tuJN
— NASCAR (@NASCAR) July 29, 2020
I didn’t cover Ryan Blaney (+1000) above, but the Team Penske driver has the 5th best average finish at 12.1 and three straight Top 9 finishes. Last year, Blaney finished 4th overall.
Blaney currently sits 3rd in the driver standings and 5th in Playoff points. He has two Top 7 finishes in the last three races but ran into some car issues at Kansas, which resulted in a 20th place result. I like Blaney to sneak into the Top 5 (+160), but I don’t see him finishing any higher than that.
I’m going to write off Kyle Busch for reasons stated above. Additionally, I don’t see Hamlin winning two weeks in a row. For me, this race comes down to Kevin Harvick and Brad Keselowski.
Harvick has won two years in a row, and is the safe play this weekend, but Keselowski has value and is also one of the best drivers this season. I’m taking the #2 car to win this race.
My Top 5 Drivers
- Kevin Harvick
- Denny Hamlin
- Brad Keselowski
- Kyle Busch
- Ryan Blaney
Foxwoods Resort Casino 301 Prop Bets
The following NASCAR prop bets are courtesy of DraftKings:
Car Number of Race Winner
- Even (-200)
- Odd (+150)
Even numbered cars have won five of the last six Foxwoods Resort Casino 301 races including two in a row. Three of my Top 5 drivers are even numbered cars: Brad Keselowski (#2), Kevin Harvick (#4), and Ryan Blaney (#12).
My top two drivers this weekend are Harvick and Keselowski. I have Brad winning this race, so go with Even for this prop bet.
Car Number of Race Winner –Even (-200)
Car Number of Race Winner
- Over 11.5 (-105)
- Under 11.5 (-125)
Like the prop bet above, three of my Top 5 drivers are Under 11.5: Keselowski (#2), Harvick (#4), and Hamlin (#11). Let’s not forget that these are the three best drivers this season to date.
There’s good value with the Under 11.5 (-125) especially considering that this year’s three best drivers are all numbered 11 and under.
Car Number of Race Winner –Under 11.5 (-125)
Manufacturer of Race Winner
- Ford (+110)
- Toyota (+150)
- Chevrolet (+335)
Chevy is the longshot for this race, but they have won it eight times which is the second most all-time. Unfortunately, Chevy hasn’t won it since 2012 and I don’t see them being a threat this weekend.
Toyota has won this race five times including from 2015 to 2016. This option provides value as Hamlin, Busch and Truex Jr. are all capable drivers and Hamlin is a betting favorite this weekend.
But, the best option is Ford which has won this race 10 times including two years in a row with Harvick. Blaney and Keselowski also drive Fords and I have them along with Harvick finishing in my Top 5. I believe the race winner will come down to Keselowski and Harvick.
I’m surprised that Ford has a positive betting line considering their dominance at this track.
Manufacturer of Race Winner –Ford (+110)
Team of Race Winner
- Joe Gibbs Racing (+155)
- Stewart-Haas Racing (+275)
- Team Penske (+300)
- Hendrick Motor Sports (+550)
- Chip Ganassi Racing (+1800)
- Any Other Team (+1800)
- Richard Childress racing (+3500)
- Roush Fenway Racing (+6600)
- JTG Daughtery Racing (+12500)
JGR might be the betting favorite this weekend, but I believe this race will come down to Harvick for Stewart-Haas Racing and Keselowski for Team Penske. Ironically, both teams have won this race three times. Harvick is the safe play, but Keselowski offers the best value and is my pick to win on Sunday.
Team of Race Winner –Team Penske (+300)
Foxwoods Resort Casino 301 Betting Recap
Betting Value
- Joey Logano (+1000)
- Brad Keselowski (+1200)
- Kurt Busch (+2500)
- Matt Kenseth (+5000)
Longshot
- Ryan Newman (+8000)
Winner
- Brad Keselowski (+1200)
Rick Rockwell
As a longtime freelance writer, avid sports fan, former athlete, and experienced sports bettor, Rick Rockwell has risen up the ranks at GamblingSites.org to become the self-professed “King of the Blog” in his first year with the site. …
