NASCAR’s Super Start Batteries 400 Betting Preview, Odds and Picks

On Thursday, July 23^rd, NASCAR returns to the track live from the Kansas Speedway for the Super Start Batteries 400. This will be the 19^th race of the season as NASCAR officially crosses the halfway mark of 2020.

Last Sunday at Texas, Austin Dillon pulled out a shocking victory and secured himself a spot in the Playoffs. It was the second consecutive weekend where a longshot pulled off the victory. Cole Custer won at Kentucky two weeks ago.

This week, Kevin Harvick is the betting favorite once again. He’s followed by Denny Hamlin, Chase Elliott, Kyle Busch and Martin Truex Jr. at most NASCAR betting sites.

Race Profile

The Kansas Speedway is a traditional tri-oval track with a lap distance of 1.5 miles. The four turns have banking of 17 to 20 degrees while the two straightaways have banking of 5 to 11 degrees. This Thursday’s Super Start Batteries 400 race breaks down as follows:

• Total Miles: 400.5 miles
• Total Laps: 267 laps
• Stage 1: First 80 laps
• Stage 2: Second 80 laps
• Final Stage: Remaining 107 laps

The Super Start Batteries 400 is set to begin at 7:30 PM ET and will air live on NBCSN.

Halfway through the @NASCAR season, and just eight races remain before the playoffs!

10 drivers are locked in. Here’s a look at the standings. pic.twitter.com/LyxkeJq98f

— NASCAR on NBC (@NASCARonNBC) July 19, 2020

What to Watch for at Kansas

With all of the excitement heading into this weekend, the following storylines are worth keeping an eye on:

• How will this race impact the current Playoff standings?
• Will we get another surprise winner for the 3^rd straight week?
• Can Brad Keselowski defend his title?
• Will Ford win this race for the 3^rd straight year?
• Can Joe Gibbs Racing get its 4^th win of this race?
• Will Kevin Harvick continue his hot streak on the season?

Previous Super Start Batteries 400 Winners

The first Super Start Batteries 400 race, previously known as the STP 400, was run in 2011 and won by Brad Keselowski. He also holds the record for most wins of this race with two, but it’s Jimmie Johnson, Jeff Gordon and Kevin Harvick who have the most wins at Kansas Speedway with three apiece.

The following is a list of the previous winners for this race:

• Brad Keselowski in 2011, 2019
• Denny Hamlin in 2012
• Matt Kenseth in 2013
• Jeff Gordon in 2014
• Jimmie Johnson in 2015
• Kyle Busch in 2016
• Martin Truex Jr. in 2017
• Kevin Harvick in 2018

Of the eight different drivers who have won this race, seven of them will take the field on Thursday. All, but Jeff Gordon will participate in this week’s Super Start Batteries 400.

NASCAR Super Start Batteries 400 Betting Odds

The following betting odds are courtesy of BetOnline:

• Kevin Harvick (+450)
• Chase Elliott (+600)
• Denny Hamlin (+650)
• Kyle Busch (+650)
• Martin Truex Jr (+700)
• Ryan Blaney (+700)
• Brad Keselowski (+900)
• Joey Logano (+1000)
• Aric Almirola (+1200)
• Alex Bowman (+2500)
• Kurt Busch (+2500)
• Erik Jones (+2800)
• Jimmie Johnson(+2800)
• Tyler Reddick (+3300)
• Ryan Newman (+4000)
• William Byron (+4000)
• Clint Bowyer (+5000)
• Matt DiBenedetto (+5000)
• Austin Dillon (+6600)
• Matt Kenseth (+6600)

Betting Favorites

According to NASCAR betting sites, the following drivers are considered the odds on favorites to win the Super Start Batteries 400 on Thursday, July 23^rd, at Kansas:

Driver	Wins	Top 5	Top 10	Avg Start	Avg Finish	DNF
Kevin Harvick	3	8	15	14.3	9.8	1
Chase Elliot	1	4	5	15.8	11.5	0
Denny Hamlin	2	7	8	12.6	15.1	2
Kyle Busch	1	7	11	12.7	16.3	4
Martin Truex Jr.	2	8	10	11.4	13.9	1

Kevin Harvick (+450)

Last weekend, Kevin Harvick finished 5^th at Texas, which marked the 5^th straight race that he finished in the Top 5 and the 6^th straight race that he finished in the Top 10. Although it’s great for his season, I had picked Harvick to win the O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 and he fell short by a few spots.

On the season, Harvick leads all drivers in Top 5s (11), Top 10s (15), laps led (691), Playoff Points and is tied for the most wins with Denny Hamlin. It’s no surprise that Harvick has a commanding lead in the standings as he’s 91 points ahead of 2^nd place Ryan Blaney.

For the rest of the drivers trying to catch Harvick, they will have a tough task this week as Kansas Speedway is a track where Harvick has won three times at, which is tied for the most all-time.

Harvick is tied for the second most Top 5s among active drivers with eight and has the second most Top 10s with 15. However, he does have the best average finish of all-time at 9.8.

Last year, Harvick finished 13^th in this race after starting on the pole, but he bounced back with a 9^th place result in the fall Kansas race.

Since 2010, his worst finish was 16^th. Yet, he has three wins and nine Top 5s over that span. Harvick has been dominant over the last four years with two wins and finishing no worse than 13^th.

This week, Harvick will be the man to beat. A Top 10 (-500) is definitely going to happen, but I also like his value for a Top 3 finish at +120 odds. From 2014 to 2018, Harvick finished in the Top 3 of the race each year.

Chase Elliott (+600)

Chase Elliott currently sits 5^th in the standings and 6^th in Playoff points. He has one win on the year along with seven Top 5s and nine Top 10s. However, over the last three weeks he’s failed to finish in the Top 10 and only has one Top 10 in the last seven races.

His recent stumbling on the track gives me cause for concern. However, he does lead the Cup Series with five stage wins and his success at Kansas does help to alleviate some of those worries.

In eight career races at this track, Elliott has one win, four Top 5s, five Top 10s, zero DNFs, and an 11.5 average finish which is 3^rd best among drivers.

In his last five Kansas races, Elliott has four Top 4s and a 12^th place result. He won at Kansas in the fall of 2018 and has led laps in three straight races. Last year, Elliott finished 4^th and 2^nd in the two Kansas races and has shown that he excels at this track.

But, will that be enough to upstage drivers like Kevin Harvick?

I think it’s safe to say that Elliott will cruise into a Top 10 finish (-335). But, can he crack the Top 5 or the Top 3 (+165)? Right now, I think there are other drivers that have a better shot than Elliott to win on Thursday, but Elliott should be a Top 5 car and flirt with a Top 3 finish.

Denny Hamlin (+650)

Since winning at Pocono four races ago, Hamlin has three straight finishes outside of the Top 10 and two of those three were outside of the Top 20. Yet, Hamlin still sits 6^th in the standings, 2^nd in Playoff points, and has the second most Top 5s with nine.

At Kansas, Hamlin has had a mixed bag of success. In 23 starts, Denny has won twice including last fall’s Kansas race, which was part of NASCAR’s Playoffs. He dominated that race by leading 153 laps.

Unfortunately, Hamlin is hit or miss at this track as he only has eight Top 10s in 23 races. Eight other active drivers have more Top 10s than Denny.

Hamlin has won this race in 2012, but he finished 16^th here last year, 5^th in 2018, 23^rd in 2017, 37^th in 2016, and 41^st in 2015. That’s an average finish of 24.4, which is significantly worse than his career average finish of 15.1 at this track.

I like Hamlin to crack the Top 10 (-275), but I don’t see him in the Top 5 or Top 3 (+225) for this race. If this was the fall Kansas race then Hamlin would be someone to consider. This week, pass on the #11 car as there are better options.

Kyle Busch (+650)

Last week at Texas, I had Kyle Busch as one of my Top 3 drivers. I didn’t think he would win, but I thought he could contend. Busch finished 4^th overall, which was his best result since Atlanta eight races ago.

He also climbed one spot in the standings to 10^th overall, but is 14^th in Playoff points. Drivers must be in the Top 16 for Playoff points to be eligible for the postseason. Busch is cutting it close right now and that’s largely due to not having any wins on the year. The defending Cup Series champ is in a slump.

Over the last eight races, Busch has alternated between a Top 6 and a bottom 20 result each week. If this trend holds true then that means Busch won’t have a good result at Kansas on Thursday.

#KFB.

It’s all you need to know. pic.twitter.com/r20sN0ohpi

— NASCAR (@NASCAR) July 21, 2020

Last year, Busch finished 30^th in this race, so it’s not unheard of for the #18 car to have a bad Kansas performance. With that said, the data shows that last year’s finish was more of an anomaly than a serious concern.

In his last 10 races at this track, Busch has finished in the Top 10 in nine of those events. In fact, he’s finished in the Top 5 for seven of those races including winning this race in 2016.

Busch bounced back from a 30^th place finish last year to pick up a 3^rd place result in the fall Kansas race. That gave him two Top 3s in the last three races at this track.

With that said, I have a hard time picking Kyle Busch to finish in the Top 3 (+215) this week. However, I do see him finishing inside the Top 10 (-286) with a Top 5 as his ceiling.

Martin Truex Jr (+700)

Just like his teammate Kyle Busch, Martin Truex Jr. also continues to struggle this year. He does have one victory which puts him in the Playoffs for now, but he’s only 7^th in the driver standings and Playoff points.

Furthermore, Truex only has three Top 5s this year, which is the worst among all drivers in the Top 10 of the standings. Additionally, his nine Top 10s are tied for the second lowest among Top 10 drivers in the standings. Truex’s 15.2 average finish on the season is extremely poor for a driver of his caliber.

Last week, Truex finished 29^th at Texas, which was a drop off from his 2^nd place result at Kentucky two races ago. He’s finished 29^th or worse in two of his last three races and four times overall this year. With only eight races left until the Playoffs, Truex really needs to get some momentum on the season.

Fortunately, for the #19 car Kansas is a track where Truex has had success at in his career. In his last six races at this track, Truex has won twice, has four Top 5s, five Top 10s, and has led in four of the races. His worst finish over that span was 19^th overall.

In his 23 career starts at Kansas Speedway, Truex has a 13.9 average finish which is 5^th best among active drivers. He will need some of his past Kansas mojo in order to produce a strong result this Thursday and a much needed Top 10 finish for the season.

I like Truex to be in the Top 10 (-305), but I don’t see him being a Top 3 (+180) car. Although he has the potential, his season has just been too inconsistent for me to feel comfortable with that result. A Top 5 finish is his ceiling, but I think he will be somewhere between 6^th and 10^th this week.

The Best Super Start Batteries 400 Betting Value

The following NASCAR drivers offer betting value for the Super Start Batteries 400 due to their current betting odds, their past success at Kansas Speedway, and their 2020 season so far:

Driver	Wins	Top 5	Top 10	Avg Start	Avg Finish	DNF
Brad Keselowski	2	4	10	10.5	12.5	1
Joey Logano	2	7	8	11.5	17.4	3
Erik Jones	0	2	4	13.4	16.9	1
Jimmie Johnson	3	9	19	14.6	10.3	1

Brad Keselowski (+900)

I was a bit surprised to see Keselowski this low in the betting odds as six other drivers were ahead of him. Yet, only two of those drivers (Harvick and Hamlin) have any arguments for being above the #2 car this week.

In his career, Keselowski has two wins, four Top 5s, 10 Top 10s, a 12.5 average finish which is 4^th best, and just one DNF. Brad won this race last year and has a 6.8 average finish in this race over the last five years.

Further evidence that Keselowski deserves to be mentioned in the Top 5 favorites this week is due to his strong 2020 season so far. Keselowski is 3^rd in the driver standings and 3^rd in Playoff points. His 13 Top 10s are second most behind Harvick and his four stage wins are 2^nd most behind Chase Elliott.

Since coming back from Hiatus, Keselowski has been one of the best drivers. In 14 races since NASCAR returned to action, Keselowski has 11 Top 10s, five Top 5s, and two wins. His worst finish was 19^th at Talladega. He has three straight Top 9 finishes on the season with a 9^th place result in Texas last weekend.

I like Keselowski this week to be a contender as he should easily crack the Top 10 (-225), slide into the Top 5 and probably crack the Top 3 (+275). I think he’s a better option to win this race than Busch, Truex, Elliott and Hamlin.

Joey Logano (+1000)

Like his teammate Brad Keselowski, Joey Logano also has two wins at Kansas, but both of those victories have come in the fall Kansas race. Yet, he does have eight Top 10s and seven Top 5s which is tied for the 3^rd most among active drivers.

Logano was 15^th in this race last year and 3^rd in 2018. He’s performed better in the fall than the spring Kansas race, which is why I’m not picking him to contend for the victory this Thursday like I did for the Texas race last weekend.

.@joeylogano‘s P3 finish Sunday was only his second top-five finish in the last 14 races of the 2020 season. pic.twitter.com/92PjKUYCFQ

— NASCAR (@NASCAR) July 20, 2020

Logano was my pick to compete against Harvick at Texas last Sunday and be a Top 3 driver. He ended up 3^rd and led 22 laps. It was his first Top 5 in eight races. He moved up one spot in the standings to 4^th overall and is behind his teammates Keselowski and Blaney.

Logano has four stage wins on the year and two race victories, which keep him 4^th in Playoff points. Yet, his season has been up and down as he has a subpar 13.9 average finish this year.

I like Logano to be a Top 10 car (-186), flirt with a Top 5, but miss out on a Top 3 (+375) finish for this week’s Super Start Batteries 400.

Erik Jones (+2800)

Erik Jones can’t seem to get any momentum going this year as he continues to have an up and down season. One week he finishes in the Top 10 and the next week he’s outside of the Top 20. Case in point, he was 22^nd in Kentucky two races ago, but finished 6^th last weekend in Texas.

Jones currently sits 18^th in the standings, but is 19^th in Playoff points. He’s failed to win a stage this year and is on the wrong side of the cutoff line for the postseason.

With that said, I believe Jones has some value this week for a Top 10 (-106) finish. In seven career starts at Kansas, he has four Top 10s and two Top 5s. Jones has four straight Top 7s at this track and was 3^rd in this race last year.

I believe Jones could sneak into the Top 10 on Thursday, but I don’t see the #20 car inside the Top 5.

Jimmie Johnson (+2800)

Can Jimmie Johnson please catch a break this year? From having his car disqualified at Indy to missing a race due to covid, Johnson has had a rough go of things in 2020.

Yet, the HOF driver sits 15^th in the driver standings and 15^th in Playoff points. If he can crank out a few more Top 10s over the next six weeks then Johnson might just make the Playoffs in his final year as a full time driver.

This is where I believe Johnson has value on Thursday. I believe JJ can crack the Top 10 (+115) and turn things around for his team on the season. Johnson was 6^th in this race last year and 10^th in the fall race. But, it’s his dominance at this track over his career that further gives me confidence.

At Kansas, Johnson is tied for most wins all-time with three, has the most Top 5s (9) of active drivers, has the most Top 10s (19) of all-time, and has a 10.3 average finish which is 2^nd best among drivers.

I don’t see Johnson being a contender in this race, but cracking the Top 10 could happen and it does offer solid betting value.

The Top Longshot to win the Super Start Batteries 400

Matt Kenseth (+6600) is the longshot pick for this week as he does have two wins at this track in his career. Furthermore, Kenseth is tied for the 3^rd most Top 5s (7) and has the 3^rd most Top 10s (13). His 15.0 average finish is 6^th best all-time.

With that said, I like his value for a Top 10 (+200) finish. That’s a two-to-one payout on this wager, which is solid considering his career success at this track.

For the 2020 season, Kenseth has picked up some momentum in the last five races with an average finish of 13.6, which is six spots better than his 19.7 average finish for the year so far.

Super Start Batteries 400 Checkered Flag

The four drivers I like the most for this race are Kevin Harvick, Chase Elliott, Kyle Busch and Brad Keselowski. Rounding out the Top 5 could be one of a handful of drivers like Martin Truex Jr., Joey Logano or Erik Jones.

It’s become a weekly PSA, but I won’t take Kyle Busch to win a race until he actually wins one on the season. He’s burned me at least three or four times this year already and his winless drought is a real concern.

Elliott has potential to steal the win this week, but he will probably finish just behind Harvick and Keselowski. I can see Logano sneaking in there to contend for the checkered flag late in the race. But, he will also fall short.

I think this race will come down to Kevin Harvick and Brad Keselowski. Last week, I said the same thing, but it was Keselowski’s teammate Logano instead. However, I really like what Keselowski has done at this track and what he’s doing this season.

Harvick is the smart play every weekend, but he’s not going to win every week. So, let’s go with Keselowski to take the checkered flag on Thursday and win this race for the 2^nd straight year.

My Top 5 Drivers

• Kevin Harvick
• Brad Keselowski
• Chase Elliott
• Kyle Busch
• Joey Logano

Super Start Batteries 400 Prop Bets

The following NASCAR prop bets are courtesy of DraftKings. However, at the time of publication, the odds for these props weren’t available. I’m sure they will be listed prior to the race on Thursday night.

Car Number of Race Winner

• Even (NA)
• Odd (NA)

In my Top 5 drivers, four of them are even numbered cars: Keselowski (#2), Harvick (#4), Busch (#18) and Logano (#22). I fully expect the “even” betting option to be a large favorite like it’s been over the last few weeks with odds at least at -200. There’s really no reason to go against the grain on this one.

Car Number of Race Winner

• Over 11.5 (NA)
• Under 11.5 (NA)

Three of my Top 5 drivers for this race are all Under 11.5: Keselowski (#2), Harvick (#4), and Elliott (#9). My two drivers that have the best chance at winning this race (Keselowski, Harvick) are both clearly under 11.5 as well.

The Over might be the favorite this week, but I feel the Under is the safe bet considering the number of contenders that can win the race are all Under 11.5.

Manufacturer of Race Winner

• Ford (NA)
• Toyota (NA)
• Chevrolet (NA)

Ford has won this race two years in a row, which are its only wins. Chevy is tied with Ford for two wins, but hasn’t taken the checkered flag since 2015. Toyota has the most wins in this race with four and I expect them to be the betting favorite or offer the most value this week.

With that in mind, I’m still taking Ford to win this weekend. Both Harvick and Keselowski drive Fords and they’re my top picks for this race. I have Keselowski winning, but it could easily be Harvick. Either way, take Ford for this prop bet.

Team of Race Winner

• Joe Gibbs Racing (NA)
• Team Penske (NA)
• Hendrick Motor Sports (NA)
• Stewart-Haas Racing (NA)
• Chip Ganassi Racing (NA)
• Any Other Team (NA)
• Richard Childress racing (NA)
• Roush Fenway Racing (NA)
• JTG Daughtery Racing (NA)

Joe Gibbs Racing has three wins, Hendrick Motorsports has two wins, and Team Penske has two wins in this race. Combined, these three teams have won seven of the nine spring Kansas races.

Although JGR will be the favorite, I just don’t see any of the team’s drivers winning on Thursday. Hamlin is better in the Fall and both Truex and Busch are mired in slumps. I also don’t see Hendrick Motorsports winning as only Elliott is a viable candidate.

The winner will come down to Stewart-Haas and Team Penske. Kevin Harvick drives for Stewart-Haas and is the race favorite. Yet, I like Team Penske this weekend.

Team Penske has three drivers (Blaney, Keselowski, Logano) in the Top 7 betting favorites for this race. Additionally, these three drivers are 2^nd through 4^th in the driver standings. Furthermore, Team Penske does have two wins in this race including last year with Keselowski. Team Penske provides good value.

Super Start Batteries 400 Betting Recap

Betting Value

• Brad Keselowski (+900)
• Joey Logano (+1000)
• Erik Jones (+2800)
• Jimmie Johnson (+2800

Longshot

• Matt Kenseth (+6600)

Winner

• Brad Keselowski (+900)