NBA Betting Pick for March 23, 2021: Nets at Trail Blazers

Tuesday’s NBA schedule brings a mere six games. We do have some good matchups on paper, though, including the final game of the night. The high-octane Brooklyn Nets will begin a three-game road trip in Portland, where they’ll face a Trail Blazers team that is getting healthy at the right time.

Nets at Trail Blazers Moneyline Betting Odds

Team
Portland Trail Blazers	-133
Brooklyn Nets	+113

Spread Betting Odds for Brooklyn vs Portland

Team
Portland Trail Blazers	-2.5 -106
Brooklyn Nets	+2.5 -114

Nets vs Trail Blazers Over/Under Betting Odds

Team
Portland Trail Blazers	O 232.5 -115
Brooklyn Nets	U 232.5 -105

The Nets won’t be at full strength in this one, though. Both Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving have been ruled out, while James Harden is questionable. Obviously, Brooklyn will be facing an uphill climb if all three of their All-Stars sit this one out, but we’ll see. Harden has helped keep the Nets near the top of the Eastern Conference standings despite the absences of Durant and Irving, but he’s iffy tonight with a neck injury.

As of now, the Blazers are 3.5-point favorites at home in a game with a 231.5 over/under.

Harden for MVP?

Don’t look now, but Harden is playing his way into the MVP conversation. No player has ever won MVP after playing for two teams in the same season, but The Beard is building quite a case for himself. Injuries to LeBron James and Joel Embiid have opened the door for Harden, who now has the third-best MVP odds (+600), behind only James (+250) and Nikola Jokic (+105).

Durant has been out for weeks with a hamstring issue. Irving has been in-and-out of the lineup himself. Harden has played 29 games with Brooklyn this season, averaging 25.4 points, 11.3 assists, and 8.8 rebounds per game. He’s going to run away with the assists title this season, and he’s also shooting better than 37 percent from three-point range, for good measure.

James Harden has been the most durable player in the league

The best ability is availability pic.twitter.com/TveN7xoSVb

— arian (@arxanii) March 22, 2021

Harden just does everything for this team. He is the reason Brooklyn is just a game behind the 76ers for the best record in the East heading into tonight’s action. The Nets have gotten quality contributions from Irving, Jeff Green, Bruce Brown, Joe Harris, and others, but this has very quickly become Harden’s team.

So, it’s obviously quite important to their chances that he actually plays tonight. Harden isn’t a player that misses games often, and the fact that the spread is still tight (BKN +3.5) is an indication that he’s more likely to play than not.

McCollum’s Return

Damian Lillard (+1400) is a fringe contender in the MVP race for what he’s been able to accomplish for the Blazers this season. Just like Harden in Brooklyn, Lillard has put his team firmly in the playoff race despite extended absences for both of his costars. CJ McCollum recently returned from a long-term injury of his own, while Jusuf Nurkic is still out indefinitely after breaking his wrist earlier this year.

While Lillard has been great, the Blazers won’t reach their ultimate goals unless McCollum is healthy. Through his first four games since his return, McCollum has struggled to find a rhythm. He did score 32 points in a come-from-behind victory over Dallas last week, but he is averaging only 11 points across each of his other three games since getting healthy.

Damian Lillard x CJ McCollum tonight

– Dame: 31 PTS – 3 REB – 6 AST – 52 FG%

– CJ: 32 PTS – 4 REB – 4 AST – 47 FG%

🔥🔥🔥 pic.twitter.com/a95GhYRSzT

— Hoop Central (@TheHoopCentral) March 20, 2021

McCollum hasn’t played more than 28 minutes in any game since his return as the team continues to monitor his playing time. The Blazers have also gotten another resurgent season out of Carmelo Anthony, while Robert Covington and Enes Kanter have given Terry Stotts quality minutes, as well.

The Nets have improved to 21st in defensive rating this season, but the Blazers still have more issues on that side of the floor. Portland is still allowing 114.9 points per 100 possessions, which is the second-worst mark in the league. Only the Kings have been more porous defensively. Portland’s sixth-rated offense has been instrumental in keeping the team alive for home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs.

What’s the Best Bet?

With two bottom-level defenses and a couple of upper echelon offenses, it’s logical to expect points to be scored in this one. This game’s 231.5 over/under betting opportunity is easily the highest of the six games on tonight’s slate, and with good reason. The Nets (116.9 points per 100 possessions) have the best offense in the league, which is a scary thought considering we haven’t seen Harden, Durant, and Irving playing together all that often just yet.

The over has cashed in 28 of the Nets’ 43 games so far this season (65.1 percent). The Pelicans are the only team in the league that has been more profitable on the over this season. Portland is 23-19 over/under, which means the over has still hit in 54.8 percent of their games.

The 231.5 total here isn’t even as high as it could be. We had an over/under north of 240 points when the Nets faced the Wizards over the weekend. Oddsmakers could be preparing themselves for the possibility that Harden sits out tonight, but I’m expecting him to play. Use that to your advantage and hammer the over on 231.5 points in this one.