NBA Bubble Prop Bets: Winless or Unbeaten Teams, Violations, Seeding?

On Thursday, July 30^th, the NBA will restart their 2020 season and Playoffs in a protective “bubble” at Walt Disney World. The league has put together a comprehensive guide for dealing with the current health crisis and most players are on board. However, there are still some health concerns by many.

With that said, NBA betting sites have jumped all over the restart by releasing a variety of basketball prop bets for the finish of the 2020 season. Let’s set a blindside screen on some of these prop bets, courtesy of BetOnline, and see where we can make some LeBron James money.

Welcome to a #WholeNewGame in Orlando!

NBA Restart begins July 30th with daily & nightly games on ESPN, TNT, ABC, NBA TV & NBA League Pass! pic.twitter.com/a59F6o9T97

— NBA (@NBA) July 12, 2020

Will Any Team Go 0-8?

• No (-500)
• Yes (+300)

The 2019-20 season has certainly seen futility among the bottom teams in the league. There have been numerous instances this season where teams have lost at least eight games in a row.

The Golden State Warriors accomplished this feat twice when they dropped 10 in a row throughout January and eight in a row in February. The Chicago Bulls also dropped eight in a row in February. The Cavs dropped eight in a row in December.

The Atlanta Hawks took losing streaks to another level this season as they had two different streaks of 10 losses in a row. In November 2019, they lost 10 in a row and in December they lost 10 more in a row. In fact, they dropped 21 of 23 games from November 14^th to December 28^th 2019.

Those were the worst teams in the standings, so it’s not surprising to see that they had losing streaks of eight games or more. What is surprising is that there are four bubble teams that have also suffered losing streaks of at least eight games in a row:

• New Orleans Pelicans lost 13 in a row from late November to mid-December 2019
• Phoenix Suns lost eight in a row in December 2019
• Sacramento Kings also lost eight in a row in December 2019
• San Antonio Spurs lost eight in a row in November 2019

Now, before we get crazy and put a large wager on the “yes” option for this prop bet, it should be noted that these Playoff contenders all suffered losing streaks during periods of the season where their best players were hurt.

Of the four bubble teams listed above, the Suns are the only one I would say have a small chance of going 0-8. Currently, NBA betting sites have Phoenix with an Over/Under win total of 2.5 games. The Over is slightly favored at -125.

The most likely candidate to go winless in Orlando is the Brooklyn Nets. Like the Suns, the Nets are also listed with an O/U of 2.5 wins. However, the Under is the favorite at -150 odds.

With the amount of replacement players having to join Brooklyn due to stars pulling out or being injured, Brooklyn will be lucky two win two games.

For this prop bet, the smart money is on “no.” But, if you are a risk taker and like to bet on longshots, then take a small flier on the “yes” option. With 3-to-1 odds, you can triple your wager if a team like the Nets go winless.

Will Any Team Go 8-0?

• No (-700)
• Yes (+400)

The Top 22 NBA teams are competing in the bubble for the 2019-2020 NBA Championship and, of those 22 contenders, six teams had winning streaks of eight games or more during the season.

The Milwaukee Bucks had the longest streak in 2019-20 when they won 18 games in a row during November and December 2019. They then went on to win nine in a row in January. Their O/U for wins is set at 5.5 games and they certainly are capable of going 8-0 inside the bubble.

The Celtics won 10 in a row in late October and early November 2019. As Boston’s streak was winding up, the Rockets put together eight wins in a row during that month.

The Lakers had a strong run from mid-October to mid-December when they had a 10 game winning streak sandwiched between two seven game win streaks. In total, they won 24 of 26 games during that span. The Lakers also have an O/U of 5.5 wins inside the bubble.

Year 17 pic.twitter.com/B8qXSrC4BE

— Los Angeles Lakers (@Lakers) July 18, 2020

The Raptors had the second longest win streak during the 2019-20 regular season when they won 15 games in a row throughout January and February 2020.

The Utah Jazz won 10 games in a row following Christmas. In total, they won 19 of 21 games from mid-December to late-January.

Like with the winless prop bet above, this one also heavily favors that no team will go 8-0. And, like I said in that prop bet, risk takers and longshot lovers could place a small flier on the “yes” option and enjoy a possible 4-to-1 return on their bet.

The Bucks and Lakers are certainly candidates to go 8-0. For most, it’s best to play it safe here. But, for the daredevils, a flier could be worth the risk.

Will There Be Any Bubble Violations by Players?

• Yes (-500)
• No (+300)

It’s important to keep in mind that these violations could even be small ones where NBA players aren’t sure of the grey areas in the NBA’s 100 page bubble guide. In fact, we already saw two incidents like this where NBA players unintentionally violated the bubble rules.

Houston Rockets forward Bruno Caboclo left his hotel room during the initial 10-day quarantine where players weren’t allowed to leave their rooms. He claimed he didn’t know that leaving his room was a violation.

Sacramento Kings center Richaun Holmes also violated bubble rules when he inadvertently crossed the boundaries to pick up food that was being delivered. Both NBA players had to start their quarantines all over again and were unable to join their teams in practicing.

pic.twitter.com/8OGZC7QArr

— Richaun Holmes (@Rich_Holmes22) July 13, 2020

Both Holmes and Caboclo will be available for scrimmages and when the seeding games start. However, they’re good examples of how easy it is to violate bubble guidelines.

With that said, I would expect at least one more player to violate a rule or two. Go with the “yes” option for this prop bet.

Will Any NBA Player Be Removed From Bubble Due to Violation?

• No (-300)
• Yes (+200)

As we see in the prop bet above, the NBA hands out quarantine periods to players who violate any guidelines to ensure safety of that player and their respective teams.

It would take something extreme for a player to be removed due to a bubble violation. Instead, I would think that a player walks away from bubble life and decides not to play anymore before being removed by the league. Take the “no” option for this bet.

How Many Seeds Will Change?

• Over 5.5 seed changes (-115)
• Under 5.5 seed changes (-115)

In the Eastern Conference, we could see one or two changes from the following four teams:

• Boston Celtics (43-21)
• Miami Heat (41-24)
• Indiana Pacers (39-26)
• Philadelphia 76ers (39-26)

From the Celtics down to the 76ers, these four teams are only separated by four wins. Furthermore, the Pacers and 76ers are tied which could easily lead to a swapping of positions in the standings.

At the bottom of the Eastern Conference, the Brooklyn Nets (30-34) and Orlando Magic (30-35) have the same amount of wins. Yet, the Nets will certainly fall in the standings while the Magic should rise.

In the Western Conference, things are even tighter with 13 teams competing for eight Playoff spots. Currently, the 4^th through 7^th seeds are all within a game of each other:

• Utah Jazz (41-23)
• Oklahoma City Thunder (40-24)
• Houston Rockets (40-24)
• Dallas Mavericks (40-27)

There should be at least one or two changes within those four teams. However, the biggest moving and shaking should come from the 8^th through 12^th seeds where these five teams are all fighting for the final Playoff spot:

• Memphis Grizzlies (32-33)
• Portland Trail Blazers (29-37)
• New Orleans Pelicans (28-36)
• Sacramento Kings (28-36)
• San Antonio Spurs (27-36)

I fully expect at least two changes in seeding among these five teams. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if there were three changes as they’re all close to the same level of talent on the court.

With that said, I feel confident in this prop bet going over 5.5 changes to the current seeding. There are just too many teams packed close together to not see movement.

15 of the 22 bubble teams could potentially see a shift in their position. And, with both betting options offering the same -115 odds, I really like the Over for this NBA restart prop bet.