NBA Pick For Sunday, March 21, 2021: Los Angeles Lakers vs Phoenix Suns

A matchup between the Phoenix Suns and Los Angeles Lakers tonight should be making headlines because of how these two teams are near the top of the Western Conference standings. Instead, the storyline becomes the Lakers trying to figure out life without LeBron James for a while. The King went down with a high ankle sprain in last night’s Laker loss to Atlanta.

Moneyline Betting Odds

Team
Phoenix Suns	-500
Los Angeles Lakers	+395

Spread Betting Odds

Team
Phoenix Suns	-10 -107
Los Angeles Lakers	+10 -113

Over/Under Betting Odds

Team
Phoenix Suns	O 214.5 -110
Los Angeles Lakers	U 214.5 -110

The rest of the league won’t feel sorry for you for long. LA has to face the second half of a back-to-back against the Phoenix Suns, who currently have the second-best record in the West at 27-13. Although Phoenix has endured a couple of wobbles since the All-Star break with home losses to Indiana and Minnesota, they still stand strong as they try to catch the Utah Jazz for the top seed in the conference.

As for LA, they’re actually tied for second with the Suns 2 ½ games back of Utah, although they have a slightly lower winning percentage. But they will have to endure a stretch without both James and Anthony Davis, who also doesn’t appear to have a timetable. It will be difficult for them to hang around in the standings, but an upset win tonight would bolster their conference as well as their odds at NBA betting websites.

Injury Report

Who knew that journeyman Hawk forward Solomon Hill would make such a big impact on the NBA season:

Obviously, that injury is the big news heading into this game. LeBron stuck around long enough to hit a 3 and keep his record streak of double-figure scoring games intact. Then he headed to the locker room and sending a chair flying, and the announcement came after the game that the team would be without him indefinitely with a high ankle sprain.

The unfortunate thing is that LA had settled into a groove for really the first time since Anthony Davis went out, notching four straight easy wins since the All-Star Break prior to the loss against the Hawks. You had the feeling that they definitely hang close enough to Phoenix and Utah to make a run at the top seed when AD returned. Now they have to learn how to play without them both (more on that to come) and not fall too far.

As for Phoenix, they’ll likely be without three-point marksman Cam Johnson again. But his isn’t a really big part of the rotation. Since the return of Dario Saric, in fact, Johnson’s minutes have been really limited, so don’t expect his absence to have much of an impact.

Life Without LeBron

Lest you think that LeBron’s impact has somehow lessened over the years, check out where he stands in the NBA’s Real Plus/Minus stats, which measures a player’s impact on his team’s net rating while on the floor, against other MVP contenders for the 2020-21 season:

• LeBron James: 9.07
• Stephen Curry: 7.58
• Giannis Antetokounmpo: 7.18
• Joel Embiid: 6.74
• James Harden: 5.11
• Nikola Jokic: 4.65
• Damian Lillard: 4.65
• Luka Doncic: 2.82

What this illustrates is that the loss of James is going to be a tough one for the Lakers to overcome in the long term, especially with Anthony Davis out as well. But what about for the short term of one game? How will the Lakers handle the Suns without him?

Well, the little evidence we have isn’t too promising. In the previous game these two teams played this year, a Suns 114-104 win in LA on March 2, James had a +2 plus/minus. The other four Laker starters were a combined -53.

What will they look like without him? Well, Lebron sat out the last game before the All-Star Break, a loss against the Kings (another bad sign) and here were the big usage beneficiaries:

• Dennis Schroder: 28 points, 9 assists in 34 minutes
• Montrezl Harrell: 26 points, 12 rebounds in 33 minutes
• Kyla Kuzma: 25 points, 13 rebounds in 34 minutes

That all looks great for Fantasy basketball purposes, but you also have to realize that LA let the Kings shoot 60 percent from the field that night and 48 percent from three. The Lakers were already hurting on defense without Davis. It will get worse without James.

The Battle of The Three Ball

The Lakers have been a top-third three-point percentage defense on the season. But, as we noted, they struggled against Sacramento. And the Suns did a number on them in this department the first time they played, making 16 of 29 (55.2 percent), that marksmanship really being the difference in the game.

It will be interesting to see if the Lakers, who are bottom third in the league in terms of taking and making threes, start to jack it up a bit more to compensate for James’ absence. When in doubt, Lebron could always bully his way to the hoop and get easy points at the rim. Perhaps they try to have Talen Horton-Tucker play that role, or perhaps they go a bit more bombs away.

One thing is for certain, they have to do a better job stopping the Suns’ onslaught from deep. And they also have to limit the Suns bench, which outscored the Laker subs 31-19 the first time they played. That becomes even more difficult, because among all the other problems James’ injury causes, it also shortens their rotation.

What’s the Best Bet?

We have seen countless examples in the world of sports over the years of teams missing their star players rallying together to put together an inspired effort. They can feel disrespected and use that as motivation to step up their games. And that certainly could come into play in this one; when did you ever think the Lakers, defending champs, would be getting nine and a hook from Phoenix, a non-playoff team a year ago?

On top of that, the Suns’ recent hiccups might give some people pause as well. But the timing of it, the second game of a back-to-back, without any real time to adjust and practice in Lebron’s absence, means that the Lakers are facing a steep climb in this one. Add to that the Suns’ home-court edge and the favorite is really the only way you can go, even with the big spread.