Pick: Trail Blazers +2
Odds: -107
$100 Could Win You…$193.46
It’s time for an intriguing matchup between the Portland Trail Blazers and the Miami Heat at American Airlines Arena in Miami. These two teams both have playoff aspirations. But they both come into the game struggling a little bit, meaning that one of them will have to right the ship and the odds online at sportsbooks.
Trail Blazers at Heat Moneyline Betting Odds
| Team |
|
|---|---|
| Miami Heat | -128 |
| Portland Trail Blazers | +108 |
Spread Betting Odds for Portland vs Miami
| Team |
|
|---|---|
| Miami Heat | -2 -110 |
| Portland Trail Blazers | +2 -110 |
Blazers vs Heat Over/Under Betting Odds
| Team |
|
|---|---|
| Miami Heat | O 217 -110 |
| Portland Trail Blazers | U 217 -110 |
Miami’s rollercoaster of a season is currently on the downswing. The Heat have lost four straight coming into this contest, with three of those losses coming at home. In the logjam that is the Eastern Conference after Philadelphia, Brooklyn and Milwaukee, Miami sits at .500 (22-22), which is good for a three-way tie for fifth with New York and Atlanta.
As the Western Conference is once again a much tougher out, the Blazers find themselves in a similar playoff position as Miami despite having a much better record. Portland is 25-18, but that’s only good enough for sixth in the West. On top of that, they’re coming off back-to-back home losses and getting ready for a crucial stretch of road games.
Injury Report
The big late news is that Jimmy Butler just popped up on the injury report with illness and is questionable to play tonight. Butler is the most important cog in the Miami offense. As you’ll see as we go on through this article, that offense has been sputtering with him, so it’s scary to think what will happen without him if he can’t go.
The lineups in this game also might be equally affected by the trading deadline today. Miami, in particular, could be active. In fact, Goran Dragic is iffy for tonight both because of a back injury and because the veteran guard could be headed out the door:
The Heat are trying to win the Lowry race while also keeping the veteran guard Goran Dragic and the promising second-year shooter Tyler Herro out of any deal, per @TheSteinLine pic.twitter.com/1NBSvwyS2y
— Ahn Fire Digital (@AhnFireDigital) March 24, 2021
If Dragic sits, look for more PT for Kendrick Nunn, who snapped out of a slump with 25 points in the Heat’s loss against Phoenix on Tuesday night. In addition, Miami will likely be without backup wing KZ Okpala due to health and safety protocols in this one. He has been getting decent rotation minutes, but rookie Precious Achiuwa should be a solid stand-in.
Health and safety protocols also could cut into the depth of the Blazers tonight. Both Anfernee Simons and Nassir Little are questionable for tonight’s action. Portland Coach Terry Stotts tightened up the team’s rotation to eight players on Tuesday night without that duo.
Heat Not Living Up to Their Name
No team has been streakier this year, in both directions, than Miami. To this point in the year, they’ve had three winning streaks of at least four games. But they’ve also gone in the other direction, with four streaks of losses of at least three in a row, including their recent four-game skid.
This recent swale came out of a stretch where they’d won 11 of 12 to firmly reinsert themselves into the playoff situation. And the big problem has been their inability to score the basketball. Take a look at the Heat’s offensive numbers over the last four games:
- PPG: 100.25
- FG %: 40.6
- 3-PT %: 27.7
Those numbers are pretty much par for the course for the team this year. They’ve dipped to 25th of 30 NBA teams in offensive rating and are only mildly better in true shooting percentage at 20th. When you look at their roster, there would seem to be shooters galore, and yet the numbers don’t lie.
One player in particular whose shooting has really cratered is Tyler Herro. Herro was a sensation in the bubble last season as Miami made their improbable run through the East to the NBA finals. On the surface his numbers from his rookie year to this, his sophomore season, look similar:
- Herro in 2019-20: 27.4 MPG, 42.8 FG%, 38.9 3PT%, 87 FT%, 13.5PPG, 4.1RPG, 2.2 APG
- Herro in 2020-21: 31.8 MPG, 41.4 FG%, 31.2 3PT%, 81.9 FT%, 15.1 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 3.4 APG
But you can see the dip in shooting efficiency is significant, even as the counting stats have risen (he is a particularly avid rebounder for this size). But now take a look at his playoff numbers a year ago:
- Herro in 2019-20 Playoffs: 33.6 MPG, 43.3 FG%, 37.5 3PT%, 87 FT%, 16 PPG, 5.1 RPG, 3.7 APG
You can understand why Miami fans were expecting more of that this season, perhaps even more since it should stand to reason that regular season defenses would be more forgiving. To Coach Erik Spoelstra’s credit, he hasn’t lessened the playing time for Herro, although he has occasionally shuffled him from starting lineup to bench in an effort to get him going. But the fact remains that the Herro of the bubble could go a long way to solving some of Miami’s dire offensive problems, ideally starting tonight with a Portland team that doesn’t make its name on its defense.
McCollum’s Rust
That heading sounds like some 70’s Western movie, when it actually refers to the recent play of Blazer sharpshooter CJ McCollum. McCollum has been the backcourt running mate to Damian Lillard during their successful run over the past several years. This year he was off to the best start of his career, averaging close to 27 points per game, which would have been a career-high, before suffering a broken bone in his foot in January.
Since returning this month, McCollum has struggled to find his groove, shooting just 33.3 percent from the field while averaging just 16.4 points per game. Portland did win the first three of those five games since McCollum returned before dropping the next two, so it’s not like they’ve been at sea while he finds his legs. And they played well in his absence, as Lillard made his best case for MVP honors.
But the truth is that McCollum, when he’s on his game, makes everything a little bit easier for the Portland offense. He did have one on-brand game with 32 points in only 28 minutes against Dallas last Friday. If the finds that form against the Heat, Portland will be tough to handle.
What’s the Best Bet?
Portland Trail Blazers +2 (-107)
There isn’t too much in the betting trends that stands out, with the possible exception that the Blazers have been sharp against Eastern teams, covering 10 of their 16 interconference games. The first game of a cross-country tilt can be tricky. But with the way that the Heat have been playing at home, there might not be too much advantage there for Miami.
The uncertainty surrounding Butler only adds to what seems like a good spot Portland. Even if he does suit up, it still feels like Portland will a tough hang for the Heat. Look for McCollum to find his stroke and the Blazers to pull away late.
Jim Beviglia
Jim Beviglia joined Gamblingsites.org as a staff writer in 2018, parlaying his years of freelance writing into contributions on a number of different topics. He handles the sport of horse racing for GamblingSites.org and the intersection between the worlds of cryptocurrency and online gambling in a weekly blog.
For his full-time job, Jim handles the television and track announcing duties at a h …
