New York Knicks at Brooklyn Nets NBA Pick: Monday April 5, 2021

The New York Knicks head across the city to face off with the rival Brooklyn Nets this evening at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn. These two teams also have a little something extra for each other whenever they meet because of the proximity between them. But these two also need to play well as they try to secure the best possible positioning with the playoffs approaching.

Moneyline Betting Odds: New York Knicks vs Brooklyn Nets

• Brooklyn Nets (-240)
• New York Knicks (+200)

Spread Betting Odds: Knicks vs Nets

• Brooklyn Nets -6 (-110)
• New York Knicks +6 (-110)

Over/Under Betting Odds: NY Knicks vs Brooklyn Nets

• Over 217 (-108)
• Under 217 (-112)

It’s getting closer to crunch time in the NBA, and the Knicks are one of those teams that really need to keep up their pace or else risk missing out on the postseason. They come into this matchup at 25-25, which puts them at tied for seventh in the East with Boston. Besides just getting in, New York knows it’s conceivable that they could get as high as fourth in the East, considering they’re just one game back of that spot, which would mean home-court edge in a first-round series.

For Brooklyn, the possibility of top seed is what they’re seeking in the East. They lost yesterday, but so did Philadelphia, meaning that the two remain tied atop the conference at 34-16. The good news is that they return to home cooking tonight at Barclays, where they’ve won their last seven.

Injury Report

The Nets are one of the most malleable teams in the league from night to night because of both nagging injuries and the concerns of load management with their veteran players. James Harden has missed the last few with a tight hamstring but is listed as day to day. It would make sense if they were to keep him out of the second game of the back-to-back and give him a few more days to rest, but keep your eyes on the injury report.

Brooklyn could be thinner than usual tonight. New additions Blake Griffin and LaMarcus Aldridge could conceivably sit out the second of the back-to-backs tonight, reserve guards Landry Shamet and Tyler Johnson could also miss, and although he’s getting closer, it doesn’t seem like Kevin Durant is yer ready to return. It’s anybody’s guess who will be suiting up in this one for them.

The Knicks lost Mitchell Robinson last week, probably for the season, which is a bummer, but they were already used to him missing time this season. Nerlens Noel and Taj Gibson will continue to hold down the fort in the middle. Other than that, New York comes in with one of their fullest lineups in weeks as they try to pull off the upset.

Pace Makes Perfect

These two teams are pretty much the opposite in terms of how they approach the game. The Nets are built on their lethal offense, which has the chance to break all kinds of records in terms of offensive rating. They’ve been able to maintain even that pace with their big three of Harden, Durant and Kyrie Irving actually on the court together for a handful of games.

The Knicks, meanwhile, are trying to bring their games back to the 90s, both in terms of the decade and the score. They slow the game down with the league’s most lethargic pace of play, and they dig in with a rugged group of defenders. Even though they have better offensive options on the bench, there is a reason that coach Tom Thibodeau has Noel and Elfrid Payton on the floor for the crucial moments of the game, and it’s because of their defensive capabilities.

Take a look at what at what the Knicks are achieving right now on the defensive end:

• Opponents shots per game: 84.9 (1^st)
• Opponents field goal percentage: 44.1% (1^st)
• Opponents three-point percentage: 33.6% (1^st)
• Opponents points per game: 103.9 (1^st)

As you can see, they are really one of the few teams in the league that are able to consistently play their game and force their defensive will on their opponents. But the Nets have remained stubbornly free of that forced slow-down in the two games they played the Knicks. Take a look:

• Game 1: 91 shots, 48.4 FG%, 40% 3PT%, 116 PTS
• Game 2: 76 shots, 57.9 FG%, 41.4 3PT%, 117 PTS

In the first game, the Nets were able to force the tempo and get the Knicks to play faster than they liked. And in the second, the Nets simply shot the lights out. Both games were tight until the end, which means that the Knicks might have been able to turn the corner with just a little bit more of their usual defensive oomph.

Perhaps if the Nets are shorthanded tonight, the Kncks could push the game more towards their style. And that would then make it much easier for them to cover that spread as the road underdog.

Randle’s Load

It’s been a revelation of a season for Randle. Most experts felt that the Knicks were foolish to center their team around him. But whether it’s Thibodeau’s influence or just Randle feeling better in his second year in the system, Randle has been a different player this year.

The problem is that he has slowed down a bit since his surprising All-Star appearance. Maybe the pressure of being the offensive focal point and the team’s top scorer, rebounder and playmaker has started to wear him down. But the results since the break have been a bit ugly, as he has had just three games out of 11 shooting over 50 percent from the field, but five out of 11 shooting under 40 percent.

Maybe Randle is headed back in the right direction, as he put on a show in a blowout win the other night over Detroit:

Randle has played well in the two contests against the Nets this season. The Knicks will need him in peak form in this one against their crosstown rivals.

Betting Trends

One thing that jumps out when you look at the performances of these two teams against the spread is how well the Knicks have done when they have the rest advantage, which they do in this one as the Nets are on a back-to-back and they’re not. In those situations, New York is 9-3, which is tops in the NBA.

When you think about it, that makes a lot of sense. It usually means that there is a team that is coming in on a back to back, like the Nets are. On top of that, they then run into a team that plays rugged, physical defense, which can be tough to overcome if you’re not quite full rested.

That’s certainly the situation in which the Nets find themselves, unless they get back some players who have been sitting out for this one. Again, this is a game where you should really be watching the injury report to see who is in and who is out if you’re planning to bet it. I think the Knicks are the right pick regardless, but you can make that pick with much more confidence if Irving is the only one of the Big 3 on the floor tonight.

What’s the Best Bet?

Even with the Nets able to break down their defensive walls, the Knicks stayed close the first two times they met this year. In part, that’s because the Brooklyn defense, even though it has improved drastically throughout the year, tends to let other teams in the game. They score a lot, but they give up a lot as well.

Add all that up and the Knicks seem to be in a prime spot. I still think the Nets could win a tight one because of their ability to make shots in the final moments is much better than the Knicks. But New York should be able to cover as the dog.