NFL Week 1 Betting Recap

The opening weekend of the NFL was met with plenty of television viewers and betting action. In a Covid-19 world where everything is restricted and social distanced, it was great to have professional football on our TVs, fantasy football on our devices, and the NFL to bet on.

Speaking of betting on the NFL, this weekend saw plenty of on-field drama and upsets at the sportsbooks. Let’s take a look at Week 1 of the NFL season and recap all of the notable betting action.

NFL Favorites Come Out Ahead Despite the Upsets

Heading into the Monday Night Football doubleheader, the favorites went 9-5 so far. That started off with the Chiefs covering a near double digit spread on Thursday Night Football as they dominated the Houston Texans 34 to 20.

Another notable favorite to win was the Los Angeles Rams. You might recall that Los Angeles was a three point underdog at the time of our Cowboys vs Rams prediction.

Yet, the sharp bettors moved the line all the way to the Rams -1 just before Sunday night’s kickoff. The Rams went on to win by three points, but not before a few controversial calls late in the game.

BetRivers reported that 27% of their wagers was placed on the Saints vs Bucs game with the Saints favored by four points. For the record, Tampa’s underdog spread was the first time in nearly five years that Tom Brady was not a betting favorite. The Saints won 34 to 23.

The Underdogs Cause the Biggest Damage

Despite the favorites winning 64% of the games this weekend, it was the betting upsets that really left a big impression with the sportsbooks.

The Jacksonville Jaguars and the Washington Football Team both pulled of large upsets that cost bettors a lot of money and killed a lot of entries in Survival Pools.

That 1-0 feeling! Let me know when you see it 👀 pic.twitter.com/XcxpLG7r1s

— Collin Johnson (@Call_In_Johnson) September 14, 2020

In fact, according to ESPN, DraftKings reported that 40% of their entries were eliminated in the DK Survivor Pool after Washington’s win. One Vegas sportsbook also reported that 30% of their entries were eliminated as they picked Indy to win.

The Jaguars also singlehandedly wrecked sportsbooks in Indiana. NFL betting sportsbooks in the state reported that at least 95% of the bets for the Colts vs Jaguars were placed on Indy’s moneyline and spread. The Colts ended up losing as well as their fans and bettors.

The Over Won this Weekend’s NFL Battle

Like the spread, the Over went 9-5 in the first 14 games of the season. In fact, three games went over the 60+ total mark with the Packers and Vikings leading the way at a combined 77 total points. The Raiders vs Panthers scored 64 points and the Seahawks vs Falcons scored 63 total points.

In our Week 1 NFL picks, we went 1-1 with the O/U. We lost on the Rams vs Cowboys as the two teams came in well below the 52 Over/Under. They only combined for 37 points. We did hit on the Bucs vs Saints O/U of 49.5 points as they combined for 57 total points.

Continuity Counts in Week 1

Last month, The Athletic released scores for each team based on the continuity of their rosters from 2019 to 2020. The top six teams based on the continuity scoring were:

• Kansas City Chiefs
• Green Bay Packers
• Buffalo Bills
• New Orleans Saints
• Baltimore Ravens
• San Francisco 49ers

These six teams combined to go 5-1 SU and 5-1 ATS in Week 1 of the NFL season. With no preseason games available, the teams with the most continuity all won by nine or more points.

312 yards

3 total touchdowns

104.6 QB rating

Have a day, @JoshAllenQB. 🙌 pic.twitter.com/CYB6ksKE0g

— Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills) September 13, 2020

This is a trend to keep an eye on for the next few weeks as these teams are not only talented, but their depth and continuity gives them an edge over the rest of the league.

Big Betting Winners and Losers

The Patriots cost NFL sportsbooks a lot of money especially regarding six figure wagers placed on New England to cover the seven point spread. BetMGM reported that they took a $525,000 dollar wager on the Patriots to cover and William Hill said that they took $275,000 bet on New England’s spread.

Don’t feel too bad for BetMGM as they came out ahead on their other six figure bets by going 3-1-1.T

FanDuel reported that a bettor nailed a 5-way parlay on five different football players to score a touchdown in their games: Dalvin Cook, Ezekiel Elliott, Toddy Gurley, Alvin Kamara, and Christian McCaffrey. The payout for this $2,500 parlay was just over $51,000 dollars.

How Did the Home Teams Fare With No Crowds?

Only five NFL teams are reportedly allowing fans into their home games throughout the first month of the season. We saw that in Kansas City and Jacksonville this weekend where it helped boost the overall feel for the game without having crowd noise added to the broadcast.

As for on the field and with the sportsbooks, home teams went 8-6 SU and 8-6 ATS this weekend.

In 2019, 14 of the 32 teams covered the spread in home games 50% of the time or more. 21 of 32 teams finished the season with a .500% or better home record.

When looking at the first week of the 2020 NFL season, the “no crowd era” remains on par with past trends for home teams against the spreads and straight up.