Odds on Who Will Be UFC Champs in the Men’s Divisions by End of 2021

2021 is going to be an exciting year for the UFC. As the world gets back to “normal,” the UFC is poised to have a big year with some highly anticipated title fights and big name matchups. There’s also the chance that we get another “champ champ” as well.

One of the fun things that UFC betting sites do at the beginning of each year is to list future bets on who will be the champions of each weight class for both the men and women by the end of the year.

Let’s step inside the betting octagon to examine these UFC futures bets, identify any value, and make some winning predictions on which male fighters will end up as UFC champions in each weight class by the end of 2021.

The rematch between Stipe Miocic and Francis Ngannou is tentatively scheduled for UFC 260 in April, per Dana White.

• Francis has had for less than three minutes of octagon time in almost three years. 🤯 pic.twitter.com/NS093MqiDW

— Alex Behunin (@AlexBehunin) January 6, 2021

Heavyweight Champion at the End of 2021

• Francis Ngannou (+150)
• Stipe Miocic (+275)
• Jon Jones (+350)
• Ciryl Gane (+600)
• Curtis Blaydes (+600)
• Jairzhino Rozenstruik (+1200)
• Derrick Lewis (+1600)
• Allistair Overeem (+2000)
• Israel Adesanya (+2000)

Current champ Stipe Miocic is a great fighter in the heavyweight division. His trilogy of fights against Daniel Cormier have propelled Miocic into the role as the greatest UFC heavyweight of all-time. But, does that mean he can keep the title throughout 2021?

Right now, this division is backed up due to the UFC waiting on Miocic’s return to the octagon. Fighters like Ngannou and Blaydes have earned title shots, but they’re waiting in line until the UFC makes a decision on when Miocic will fight next.

As of the publication, the rumor is that the UFC is potentially targeting Miocic vs Ngannou for April. It makes sense considerint Ngannou is the #1 contender and has dominated the competition over the last few years. However, Miocic did defeat Ngannou in their first matchup in 2018.

Then there’s the wild card of Jon Jones who vacated the light heavyweight title to move up in weight and challenge for the heavyweight championship. He could easily jump ahead of Ngannou and Blaydes to the front of the line for a big fight against Miocic.

If Miocic and Ngannou do fight in April, there’s a chance that the winner of that fight will compete again in 2021. I believe that bout will be against Jon Jones as he should have at least one heavyweight fight under his belt.

If Jon Jones does get a title shot later this year then I believe he will end up as the heavyweight champion. In a division mostly filled with strikers, Jones has the grappling ability to beat these contenders on the mat.

All of the betting options below Jones in this wager are not realistic threats to win the UFC championship. Avoid them.

Light Heavyweight Champion at the End of 2021

• Israel Adesanya (+175)
• Jon Jones (+300)
• Jan Blachowicz (+400)
• Glover Teixeira (+600)
• Aleksander Rakic (+650)
• Dominic Reyes (+900)
• Magomed Ankalaev (+1000)
• Jiri Prochazka (+1400)
• Thiago Santos (+2000)

The light heavyweight division got really interesting last year after Jon Jones vacated the championship. Jones is the greatest light heavyweight in the history of MMA. He cleaned out the division and decided it was time to move up to heavyweight and take on new challenges.

Following his departure, Jan Blachowicz beat Dominic Reyes for the vacant belt in impressive fashion. Yet, instead of lining up some of the ranked contenders like Glover Teixeira for a shot at the title, the UFC has decided to go the route of champ vs champ as Adesanya is moving up to take on Blachowicz.

It’s official. Israel (@stylebender) Adesanya will challenge Jan Blachowicz for the Light Heavyweight World Title in the main event at UFC 259 on March 6. ✨ #UFC259 #GP pic.twitter.com/yeue8wBQtt

— Paradigm Sports (@ParadigmSports) January 1, 2021

The two will fight in March at UFC 259. However, there’s a good chance that if Adesanya wins then the light heavyweight division will get backed up as he most likely will go back down to middleweight to defend that title later in 2021.

I believe Adesanya has the technical skills to beat Blachowicz. He won’t knock him out, but he can outstrike Jan and win via decision.

After that, I see Adesanya coming back down to middleweight to fight either Robert Whittaker in a rematch or possibly Marvin Vettori who lost via split decision to Adesanya a few years ago. In fact, Vettori is the only fighter to come close to beating Israel inside the octagon.

With that said, Adesanya is the smart bet here. He should win the title and then hold onto it until 2022 before he fights in this weight class again.

Middleweight Champion at the End of 2021

• Israel Adesanya (-250)
• Robert Whittaker (+350)
• Marvin Vettori (+700)
• Jared Cannonier (+900)
• Darren Till (+1000)
• Paulo Costa (+1200)
• Derek Brunson (+1400)
• Khamzat Chimaev (+1600)
• Kevin Holland (+2000)

As mentioned above, middleweight champ Adesanya will fight against Blachowicz in March for the light heavyweight championship. That means the middleweight title will be on hold until at least the summer time or fall.

I would imagine Adesanya won’t fight again for 4 to 6 months. By then, we will have clarity on the possible Whittaker rematch or if a new challenger will present himself like Marvin Vettori.

Also mentioned above, Vettori is the only fighter to come close to beating Adesanya in the UFC. He lost via split decision. Vettori is on track to be in the title scene by mid-2021 as he’s now ranked 5^th in the division.

I would bet that Vettori gets a Top 5 fight next, which could be against Paulo Costa or Darren Till. Whittaker could be the odd man out until Adesanya fights again in this weight class. Either Whittaker gets the title shot or the winner of a Vettori Top 5 fight will earn the title shot.

Paulo Costa’s manager calls for interim title fight against Robert Whittaker while Israel Adesanya challenges Jan Blachowicz (@guicruzzz) https://t.co/tKwokRZGqB pic.twitter.com/jMUPDa37yu

— MMAFighting.com (@MMAFighting) January 2, 2021

As much as I would like to see a rematch between Adesanya and Vettori, the rematch between Adesanya and Whittaker will most likely be next, which means that Vettori will have to wait until 2022.

However, for Whittaker to get that rematch, he is going to have to get another win. UFC President Dana White is angling for Whittaker and Costa to fight in March or April around the same time as Adesanya vs Blachowicz.

If Whittaker wins, he will get Adesanya later this year. If he loses then I see Vettori jumping ahead of Costa who Adesanya already defeated.

The smart wager for this prop bet is to stick with Adesanya as the middleweight champion for the rest of the year.

If you want to take a flier, go with Robert Whittaker as he’s extremely motivated to get the title back.

Welterweight Champion at the End of 2021

• Kamaru Usman (+100)
• Colby Covington (+300)
• Gilbert Burns (+550)
• Khamzat Chimaev (+650)
• Leon Edwards (+800)
• Jorge Masvidal (+900)
• Stephen Thompson (+1000)
• Conor McGregor (+1600)

This is a very exciting division. Where the others are clear as to the direction of the division, there’s more intrigue and potential for Usman losing the title than any champ of another weight class.

Usman has already defeated Covington and Masvidal, but Colby is still the biggest threat to Kamaru’s title. Covington has been the only fighter to really do any damage against Usman and to win a round with the judges. The fight was pretty even before Usman stopped it.

Gilbert Burns will most likely be the next opponent for Usman. He is reportedly set to take on Kamaru in February. This will be the third time that the UFC has tried to make a fight between these two athletes.

Kamaru Usman will defend his welterweight title against former teammate Gilbert Burns at UFC 258 on Feb. 13, multiple sources told @bokamotoESPN.

Contracts have not been signed yet, but both sides have agreed to the five-round bout. pic.twitter.com/iVYbledVgL

— ESPN MMA (@espnmma) January 5, 2021

Burns has the potential to beat Usman as he does have the power and the grappling skills. It will certainly be an exciting matchup.

While those two compete, I think we could get a Covington vs Masvidal fight which would do big business due to their disdain for each other. Former training partners and friends turned enemies.

I don’t see Masvidal getting another title shot against Usman this year, but Covington could be next after the Burns fight.

Also, there’s Leon Edwards and Khamzat Chimaev. These two were going to fight at UFC Fight Island 8, but Chimaev withdrew due to covid. These two fighters are wild cards in a division that’s loaded with talent, big names, and even bigger fights.

I expect the Edwards vs Chimaev fight to happen sometime soon. Probably in March or April at the latest. It doesn’t appear that the UFC wants Edwards to fight anyone else.

The winner of the Edwards vs Chimaev fight will immediately jump up into title contention. However, would they skip Covington to become the next contender for the winner of Usman vs Burns fight? That’s the question.

This really is a tough prop bet. So, let’s start with whether or not we believe Usman will be the champ by the end of 2021. As of now, I don’t think so. Nothing against Usman and his championship run, but there’s so much talent in this division that it’s hard to see Usman surviving all of the contenders.

Now, we have to decide whether or not Burns will win the title or if someone else will take it off Usman. I’m giving the edge to Usman against Burns, but not by much.

For me, I do believe that Covington can beat Usman in a rematch. I also believe that Chimaev is a future champion. However, his time will probably be in 2022.

For this prop bet, I am going with Covington to hold the belt as 2021 closes.

Lightweight Champion at the End of 2021

• Conor McGregor (+150)
• Khabib Nurmagomedov (+250)
• Dustin Poirier (+550)
• Justin Gaethje (+550)
• Charles Oliveira (+650)
• Tony Ferguson (+900)
• Dan Hooker (+1000)
• Carlos Diego Ferreira (+1400)
• Paul Felder (+1600)
• Islam Makachev(+2000)

Last year, UFC lightweight champion Khabib Nurmagomedov decided to retire after defeating Justin Gaethje to retain the title. Nurmagomedov has said that the only way he will fight one more time is if it was against GSP. The odds of that fight happening are very low.

Instead, it appears that the UFC will have to hit the reset button on the lightweight division to find a new champ. UFC President Dana White will have a face to face conversation with Khabib this month, but the odds are against Nurmagomedov coming out of retirement.

So, the promotion will have to figure out what to do after Nurmagomedov ultimately reinforces that he’s retired. As of now, Dana White stated that the winner of Conor McGregor vs Dustin Poirier at UFC 257 will be next in line for a title shot.

But, if Nurmagomedov is done, does that means that McGregor or Poirier becomes the champ or at least the interim champ?

Charles Oliveira is now the 3^rd ranked lightweight in the division after a dominant performance over Tony Ferguson. He’s actually ranked higher than McGregor, but just behind Gaethje and Poirier.

The smart thing would be to have Oliveira and Gaethje fight next. Then the winner of that fight could take on the winner of McGregor vs Poirier to decide who the lightweight champ is.

🦅 Khabib Moments:

Pre- Conor McGregor Fight….@TeamKhabib

pic.twitter.com/Arbsj09oTp

— MMA Videos (@MMAVidsOfficial) January 7, 2021

McGregor has already defeated Poirier once and he should be able to do it again. But, the Gaethje vs Oliveira fantasy booking is a lot harder to predict.

Would McGregor fight three times in 2021 or just twice? You know he will come back this year if it’s for the title and/or against Nurmagomedov.

The smart play is on Conor McGregor to have the belt by the end of 2021 especially if Nurmagomedov remains retired. McGregor should be able to defeat Poirier, Gaethje or Oliveira.

I would wait to bet on this particular prop bet until we get more news from the meeting between Dana White and Nurmagomedov. If Khabib is willing to fight McGregor again or even a fresh opponent like Oliveira then you have to ride “The Eagle” in this futures bet.

Featherweight Champion at the End of 2021

• Alexander Volkanovski (+150)
• Max Holloway (+275)
• Brian Ortega (+400)
• Calvin Kattar (+600)
• Zabit Magomedsharipov (+700)
• Yair Rodriguez (+900)
• Chan Sun Jung (+1000)
• Jeremy Stephens (+1400)
• Josh Emmett (+1600)
• Sodiq Yussuff (+2000)

It’s safe to say that many fans and pundits feel that Max Holloway won at least one of the two fights against the current featherweight champ Alexander Volkanovski. It’s also a big reason why there’s a demand for a trilogy fight between the two.

With that in mind, Volkanovski is not really interested in a third bout against Holloway:

“So again, it is annoying but at the same time, I understand it. It was a close fight. It was a very competitive fight and it was two of the best going at it. I understand it [the desire for a trilogy] but come on, I ain’t going to keep rematching him till he wins.”

Volkanovski has a good point. Holloway is the best featherweight of all-time, but he came up on the wrong side of two decision losses and it’s hard to run a third fight back in 2021.

“2021 is gonna be our year. That’s where we’re really going to make our mark.”

Check-in with @UFC featherweight champion @AlexVolkanovski as he heads into the new year ⤵️: https://t.co/1GcqPj2ind

— UFC News (@UFCNews) January 4, 2021

The champ is expected to fight #2 ranked featherweight Brian Ortega soon. The UFC was angling for February, but it could be pushed back until March or April. Volkanovski wants to fight three times this year, but not in February.

Holloway will take on the 6^th ranked Calvin Kattar this month. A win in that fight would keep Max as the #1 contender.

Fortunately, there are a few other names that could really make an impact on this weight class especially with the Top 5 and the champ.

Zabit Magomedsharipov is ranked 3^rd in the division and has been booked three different times to fight Yair Rodriguez. However, all three times the fight was cancelled due to Yair’s actions or injuries.

It’s at the point now where UFC President Dana White is calling Rodriguez flaky and wanting to move on from this potential matchup. The UFC has soured on Rodriguez, so I doubt he will be in a Top 5 fight anytime soon.

That leaves us with Chan Sung Jung who lost via decision to Ortega last October. It was a solid win by Ortega and earned him the title shot. Yet, you can’t count out Jung who is a popular fighter with fans and the promotion.

A bout between Magomedsharipov and Jung makes a lot of sense this year as it will help sort out the Top 5.

Although Volkanovski doesn’t want a trilogy fight against Holloway, it’s hard to argue that the two won’t fight one more time if they clear out the division this year.

One more name to throw out there is Henry Cejudo who has been calling out Volkanovski. If the UFC pays Cejudo what he’s looking for, you can expect the former “champ champ” to return to the octagon for some big time fights in two or three different divisions.

For this prop bet, go with the champ to hold the title throughout 2021.

Bantamweight Champion at the End of 2021

• Petr Yan (+300)
• Aljamain Sterling (+350)
• TJ Dillashaw (+450)
• Cory Sandhagen (+650)
• Rob Font (+750)
• Cody Garbrandt (+900)
• Henry Cejudo (+900)
• Frankie Edgar (+1000)
• Pedro Munhoz (+1200)
• Deiveson Figueiredo (+1400)
• Dominick Cruz (+1400)
• Jimmie Rivera (+1600)
• Merab Dvalishvili (+2000)

We’re not going to have to wait long for the bantamweight division to get some clarity as the champ Petr Yan is set to take on Aljamain Sterling in March at UFC 259 for the title.

This bout will have a huge impact on the division. As of now, I believe Yan will retain the belt. Sterling will drop down which should open up a spot for a new #1 contender like TJ Dillashaw, Cory Sandhagen or even Cody Garbrandt.

The bantamweight title bout between Petr Yan and Aljamain Sterling has been rebooked for UFC 259, sources confirmed to @bokamotoESPN after a report by MMA Junkie. pic.twitter.com/Mcl8QbzZkR

— ESPN MMA (@espnmma) January 7, 2021

TJ Dillashaw is a name to watch for in this weight class. He’s returning to the octagon for the first time in two years after a suspension and it’s expected that Dillashaw will return to the bantamweight division.

He’s a recognized name that would make for a great addition to the division and easily slot in for some big fights. The UFC should line up Dillashaw and Sandhagen with the winner getting a title shot.

Sandhagen isn’t excited about the return of Dillashaw and feels that he should be the next contender:

“I wanted to stay busy, I wanted a big name, I wanted someone that is good, and Edgar’s it I think T.J. definitely needs a win over one of these top guys too, before he comes back and fights for a belt. I heard him say he’s playing the financially secure card, and ‘I’ll wait for a title shot,’ this and that. We’ve been putting in work while you’ve been gone. So that would kind of be a bummer if they just gave it to him.”

I agree with Sandhagen and it’s why I believe the UFC should put him in the octagon with Dillashaw for the #1 contender spot. TJ shouldn’t come back in and get a title shot in his return fight. He was suspended due to a failed drug test. He needs to earn the title fight first.

Cody Garbrandt (+900) is another name to watch. He’s ranked 3^rd in the division and could end up fighting 6^th ranked Jose Aldo next. However, he has his eye on dropping down to the flyweight division for a title shot after an Aldo bout.

The safe play is with Yan. The value is with Sandhagen as he has the potential to become world champ.

Flyweight Champion at the End of 2021

• Deiveson Figueiredo (-125)
• Brandon Moreno (+350)
• Cody Garbrandt (+450)
• Askar Askarov (+600)
• Alexandre Pantoja (+800)
• Manel Kape (+900)
• Alex Perez (+1000)
• Brandon Royval(+1000)
• David Dvorak (+1600)
• Joe Benavidez (+1600)
• Raulian Paiva (+1600)
• Tim Elliott (+2000)

Deiveson Figueiredo is a beast. He’s made the flyweight division a must see weight class due to his exciting style inside the octagon. Last December, on quick turnaround, Deiveson Figueiredo and Brandon Moreno had a classic battle.

The UFC came out and immediately said that they will have a rematch between those two. The target date will be in April or May. The winner of that fight could end up taking on Cody Garbrandt if he gets by Jose Aldo in a fight that’s expected to be made official.

Deiveson Figueiredo and Brandon Moreno reminded us of a simple, inarguable fact: Flyweights rule.

They also took the No. 2 spot on our 2020 Fights of the Year.

Read more: https://t.co/zbc8QR4aZB pic.twitter.com/dTQsZxUfvK

— MMAFighting.com (@MMAFighting) January 1, 2021

Garbrandt wants to come down to flyweight to fight for the title. They had a Figueiredo vs Garbrandt fight set for last year, but Cody withdrew from the fight due to testing positive for covid. Ultimately, Figueiredo went on to fight Moreno, which resulted in the upcoming rematch.

With Garbrandt a potential #1 contender after the Figuereido vs Moreno rematch, what will happen with the rest of the division?

Fortunately, the UFC has already given us clarity on the future of the Top 5 in this weight class.

5^th ranked Alexander Pantoja will take on the debuting Manel Kape in February. Kape was the former RIZIN champ and could make a big jump within this division if he can win in his debut.

The 3^rd ranked Askar Askarov is reportedly in line to take on 2^nd ranked Joseph Benavidez in the near future. Askarov beat Pantoja to move up into the Top 3 in the division. With a win over Benavidez, Askarov would have a legitimate claim to the #1 contender’s spot in the division.

Unless Henry Cejudo comes out of retirement to take on Figueiredo, I see the champ running through the competition and cleaning house in 2021. He has a tremendous balance between striking and grappling that makes it hard for anyone other than Cejudo or Moreno to overcome.

Garbrandt will be a solid challenge, but I see Figueiredo beating Moreno and Garbrandt this year. He might be able to get in a 3^rd fight by the end of the year against someone like Askarov.

By the end of 2021, I expect Figuereido to be one of the Top 5 pound for pound fighters in the UFC and arguably the top fighter under 155 pounds.