Robert Whittaker Is Slight Favorite Against Paulo Costa

The UFC middleweight division’s top 2 ranked contenders will face off on April 17th in a bout that could determine which guy welcomes champion Israel Adesanya back to the 185-pound division when he returns after challenging for the light heavyweight title.

Adesanya is slated to take on 205-pound champion Jan Blachowicz at UFC 259 on March 6th and whether he becomes champ-champ or not, Izzy is expected to drop back to middleweight and continue his reign.

No contender has been assigned to be Adesanya’s next challenger at middleweight but after April 17th, we could see either Robert Whitaker or Paulo Costa facing the champion next. These two men collide in the main event of the April 17 affair which could take place in Las Vegas or Abu Dhabi.

Whitaker as Slight Favorite

Whitaker has been installed by the top UFC betting sites as the slight betting favorite to beat Costa. According to online sportsbook BetOnline, the Reaper is a -190 odds on favorite to win the bout, with Costa coming back at +165. That means that in order to win $100 on Bobby Knuckles, you will have to place a $190 bet. On the other hand, a $100 bet on the Borrachinha will yield a $165 payout.

Since losing the title to Adesanya at UFC 243, the 30-year old Whitaker has won back to back fights against Top 5 middleweights. Whitaker outpointed Darren Till in a five-rounder at Fight Island last July 26, 2020, and then scored another points victory over Jared Cannonier at UFC 254 last October 24, 2020.

The former TUF: The Smashes tournament winner is 10-1 since moving up to middleweight in the UFC,  with his only loss coming at the hands of the current champion. Overall, the Reaper has an impressive record of 22-5 with 9 knockouts and five wins via submission. He owns notable wins versus Uriah Hall, Rafael Natal, Jacare Souza, Derek Brunson, and Yoel Romero.

A Vow to Win the Belt

Costa vowed to win the belt after losing in his first UFC title bout at UFC 253. Like Whitaker, Costa’s only loss at 185-pounds came against Israel Adesanya, and just like the Reaper, the Brazilian too was knocked out by the current champion.

Borrachinha entered the UFC picture via The Ultimate Fighter: Brazil 3 as the second middleweight contender drafted by Wanderlei Silva. Costa lost via split decision in the second round but was signed by the UFC anyway. He went on to win his first four UFC bouts via knockout with no fight getting past round two. After defeating Yoel Romero via decision at UFC 241, he was given a shot at Adesanya and the belt.

The 29-year old Brazilian has a record of 13-1 with 11 knockouts and one win via submission. Costa is currently the number 2 ranked contender in the division and if he can beat the top-ranked Whitaker, there’s a good chance that he’s going to earn a rematch against the Last Stylebender. But beating the tough-as-nails Whitaker is always easier said than done. But we’ll see, come April 17th if the oddsmakers are correct on this one.