The AFC North was the most competitive division in the AFC last season. Despite starting the season 11-0 and looking to sweep the North, the Pittsburgh Steelers collapsed and barely squeaked by.
The Baltimore Ravens and Cleveland Browns finished 11-5, and each won their first playoff games. The Ravens won their first in a few seasons, and the Browns did so for the first time since 1994.
We knew we had a three-horse race in the AFC North in 2020, and there was hardly a bad bet in the futures department with our three aforementioned teams. And things remain as murky as ever.
Today’s post will explore the futures outlook of all four AFC North teams, and the pros and cons of betting on each—yes, even those Cincinnati Bengals.
Baltimore Ravens
The Baltimore Ravens entered 2020 as the favorites to win the division and ended up scrambling just to make a trip to the playoffs. Teams exposed quarterback Lamar Jackson for who he and the Ravens’ offense truly are: gimmicky.
And once again, Jackson’s demons continued to haunt him as he routinely failed to defeat equal or superior competition until Wildcard Weekend when they faced the Titans. Here in 2021, the Ravens will continue their old-school, ground-based attack of smashmouth football.
They’re fun to watch, considering their revival of the wishbone, flexbone, pro-form, and many other formations thought to be obsolete at the pro level. However, predictably, they weren’t as effective in Year 2 of the system, and you can make a winning bet that they may take another step back.
Teams Have Further Caught Onto the Gimmick for One
And for another, the Ravens still lack a true #1 receiver. Sure, they signed a good WR2 in Sammy Watkins. They also have Marquise Brown as a slot option. Mark Andrews remains a good tight end, but he also took a step back.
Until the Ravens find a WR1 and until Jackson learns to become a throw-first quarterback who can win games through the air, the Ravens remain a risky NFL futures bet.
Sure, they can go on another hot run in 2021. But on paper, they’re the second-best team in the AFC North at best, if not the third-best team. And given Jackson and the Ravens’ track record against equal or superior talent, it doesn’t bode well.
In a best-case scenario, Jackson will stop his endless impersonation of Tim Tebow and become a pass-first quarterback. But don’t expect it to happen. Bet on the Ravens at your own risk.
Cincinnati Bengals
For the second season in a row, the Bengals have once again attracted key free agents. And best yet, they “stole” talent from their rivals, including Larry Ogunjobi (Cleveland), and Mike Hilton (Pittsburgh). They weakened their rivals and attracted the likes of Chidobe Awuzie and Trey Hendrickson.
With an early pick, we know the Bengals will do what they can to improve an offensive line that haunted then-rookie quarterback Joe Burrow before his devastating knee injury.
However, the Cincinnati Bengals remain a long way from contention, and the head coach that will take them there may not even be on the sidelines. Zac Taylor’s record with the team is 6-25-1. He owns one of the worst winning percentages, if not the worst of any NFL head coach over the past two seasons.
Plus, the Bengals must contend with three sisters in the AFC North who remain lightyears ahead of them in talent. Sure, the 2020 Bengals nearly beat the Browns during their second rodeo and somehow upset the Steelers late in the season.
But they must do much more if they hope to shock the league. When it comes to NFL futures bets, your best choice is to stay away from the Bengals unless you have some insider information that you’ve been sworn to secrecy with—maybe in 2022?
Cleveland Browns
It’s hard to believe this is the same franchise that had a stretch of a 1-35-1 record spanning from Week 15 of the 2015 NFL season to Week 2 of the 2018 Season. But here are the Cleveland Browns, who boast a 24-22 record since Week 3 of 2018.
Then, they shocked the Steelers in a massive playoff upset before losing a one-possession game to the Kansas City Chiefs. Now, the team just signed two viable defensive backs from the Los Angeles Rams to build the AFC North’s most complete team.
Goodness, if 2020 Was Strange, 2021 Is Even Stranger
The Cleveland Browns—at least on paper—aren’t half-bad NFL futures bets in many categories, including that elusive AFC Championship. But until the Browns prove they can beat Pittsburgh and Baltimore consistently and prove that they’re not one-year wonders, they remain a risky futures bet in 2021. Sure, they were impressive in 2020. But they won close games they ordinarily lose. And like the Ravens, they take a system-based approach.
Like Lamar Jackson, Baker Mayfield is an overrated quarterback. Perhaps not as overrated as former NFL coach Rex Ryan claimed; but if Mayfield’s running game isn’t clicking, he’s about as effective of a passer as Drew Lock.
With a stellar running game, he’s as effective as the league’s best quarterbacks. But Mayfield on his own, or when asked to carry a team, just isn’t that good. In fact, you can name about five quarterbacks taken behind him in the past three seasons who would be more effective under center.
Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, Kyler Murray, Josh Allen, and given his better record, we’ll throw Jackson into that bunch, too. While Burrow and Herbert haven’t won, they both excelled as rookies. Allen came around with a team whose talent matches Cleveland’s.
Murray has done a spectacular job in Glendale, which often serves as the NFL’s wasteland for aging players looking to retire in a warm climate. And hey, at least Jackson leads his team to the playoffs.
Also, the Browns’ defense remains unproven. They were one of just a handful of 11-5 football teams to have finished a season, having allowed more points than they scored. That says a lot.
So, with the Browns, they may figure to (finally) be the team to beat in the AFC North. But quirks exist, and this team remains unproven. They’re a team you can remain cautiously optimistic about if you’re placing a futures bet.
Pittsburgh Steelers
The Pittsburgh Steelers remain one of the NFL’s winningest franchises, and they’re always a popular team to place a futures bet. Head coach Mike Tomlin has never experienced a losing record during his 14 seasons with the Steelers, so it’s always easy to bet that this team will finish at least 8-8 regardless.
However, the Steelers have lost a lot of talent. Mike Hilton’s gone. Bud Dupree’s gone. Mike Pouncey is gone. James Conner is gone. Alejandro Villanueva may be finished. And worse yet, the Steelers did little in free agency given their limited cap space.
You could’ve made a safe NFL futures bet that they would’ve finished in the AFC North’s basement had it not been for the one-year returns of Ben Roethlisberger and JuJu Smith-Schuster aiming to put together one last Super Bowl run in Pittsburgh.
Ben has remained, but he hit a wall last season. How else do you explain the team’s 1-5 finish?
The defense collapsed in the playoffs. And the Steelers looked like the worst team in the NFL more than once in December. If it wasn’t for an epic comeback at Heinz Field against the Indianapolis Colts; they would’ve finished third in the AFC North with an 0-6 record following their 11-0 start.
If you think the Steelers and Ben have one final epic comeback in them, then wager the money. But for teams that look good on paper, the Steelers may be the riskiest bet out there.
Your Futures Bet
As competitive as the AFC North is, not a single one of these teams is or should be clear-cut favorites. The Browns, Steelers, and Ravens can all win the AFC North and they all make sensible futures bets.
However, all three teams have more flaws than perhaps any other contender in the NFL. Odds are, you’re placing a bet on one of these three teams to win the division. You may place a bet for their over/under. And you may like at least one to win the AFC Championship.
Nothing is ever set in stone. And the AFC North has proven it.
Conclusion
The Ravens remain one of the league’s hottest offenses, but teams figured them out as 2020 wore on despite their hot finish.
The Pittsburgh Steelers won the AFC North, but they’re less than half the team they once were. They can still win it all, but it’ll take nothing short of a miracle.
The Cleveland Browns may actually have the North’s most complete team. However, until they fix their defense, you can’t seriously consider them for anything more than their first division title since 1989.
Finally, the Bengals aren’t there yet and probably won’t be until 2022 at the soonest.
Which AFC North team, if any, makes for the best NFL futures bet in 2021? Tell us your opinion in the comments. We can’t wait to read your thoughts.
Michael Stevens
Michael Stevens has been researching and writing topics involving the gambling industry for well over a decade now and is considered an expert on all things casino and sports betting. Michael has been writing for GamblingSites.org since early 2016. …
