in ,

The Best and Worst Types of Bets on Baseball

the-best-and-worst-types-of-bets-on-baseball

Gamblers are now armed with an entire season of statistics and results to analyze. Because baseball’s regular season is typically the longest of any of the major sports, you have information on your side from this season, as well as previous seasons. When it comes to betting on baseball, the possibilities are seemingly endless; however, not all bets are created equally. Here are the best and worst types of wagers to place for those of you who are new to gambling on baseball.

1 ‒ Run Line vs. Moneyline

Before I break down the optimal types of bets to make on baseball, I think it’s essential to break down the difference between the run line and moneyline. Unlike other sports, oddsmakers don’t use standard spreads when setting lines.

When you’re betting on the run line, you’re essentially picking one side to win by 2 or more runs (in the case of the favorite) or an underdog, either losing by less than 2 runs or winning. Betting on the moneyline works the same in baseball as most other sports, in that you’re picking one team to win outright.

Deciding whether to bet on either the run line or moneyline comes down to personal preference, and there are arguments to be made for both sides. All that truly matters, in my opinion, is that you are getting the maximum value for your bet. Some may disagree and argue that one is superior to the other, but your decision should always come down to where the most value lies.

2 ‒ Underdogs at Home

Under normal circumstances, home-field advantage is a real phenomenon that occurs across all major sports. With the absence of fans in baseball seasons, this advantage might not be as dramatic, but it’s still present in the 2020 season. Teams typically play better in the confines of their home stadium due to the comfortability, proximity to each player’s home, and the presence of thousands of fans.

Even the worst teams in baseball historically fare better at home than on the road, so when you happen across a line that features an underdog at home, it’s something to consider betting on. Betting on underdogs is a way to maximize your bankroll’s value, especially if they’re facing a heavy favorite.

As a rule of thumb, I typically utilize a flat betting system; however, I tend to favor betting on home underdogs. When I wager on a dog, I usually drop my bet down a few dollars due to the likelihood of a loss. When betting on home underdogs, I recommend sticking to the run line as the home team will always be the final team to hit and can muster a rally in the bottom of the ninth.

3 ‒ Overpriced Big Favorites

Gamblers are prone to superstitions and favoritism, especially when it comes to betting on baseball. It’s part of the game, and I don’t see a future where gamblers as a whole can distance themselves from their biases. That can work in your favor if you choose to bet against the public or against you if you decide to gamble based on these inherent beliefs.

When it comes to picking sides, the betting public is partial to big market teams with star power and can swing the line on specific bets. This is especially true when it comes to big money favorites. Every night, a team will be listed around -180 because they’re either the far superior squad or their ace is on the mound.

If you decide to drop some money on big money favorites, it’s probably because you think it’s a sure-fire bet. However, baseball is entirely unpredictable, and strange things happen every night. By betting big favorites consistently, you’re sacrificing potential profit, especially if your team gets upset.

4 ‒ Big Money on Props

Betting on props is one of the most exciting forms of sports gambling, but it can also be detrimental to your bankroll. Depending on the sportsbook or baseball betting site you use, each matchup should have a list of prop bets to wager on. These typically include things like a player’s likelihood to hit a home run, the number of hits a batter will have, the number of strikeouts a pitcher will record, and other wagers of that nature.

I’m never opposed to sprinkling a little money on props because it adds more watchability to the game, and it’s always fun to keep up with prop bets throughout the game. Having said that, dropping a unit or more on a prop bet is something I cannot stand behind.

In my experience gambling, I’ve come to know several gamblers who take part in this, claiming “this will be the time one of these hits for me.”

Spoiler Alert:

It most likely won’t. If you are looking for a prop to add some action to your night or to finish out a parlay, go right ahead. But don’t squander a chunk of your bankroll on props.

5 ‒ Divisional Underdog

This is my favorite type of bet in all of sports, so I might be a little biased when it comes to betting on division dogs. As the baseball season drags on, divisional foes will face off 19 times before the regular season’s final game. Obviously, this isn’t the case with the condensed 2020 season.

Through those 19 games, teams will start to figure each other out and pick up on certain intangibles we don’t see as fans and gamblers. When an inter-divisional series is occurring during the latter half of the season, and I see an underdog pop up, I have to restrain myself from immediately hammering that bet. If the underdog is at home, then it’s almost too irresistible to pass up.

Betting on underdogs is a risk that’s worth taking. You don’t need to be over .500 if you’re betting on underdogs because you stand to win more money than you would by betting on favorites. I’m not advocating for always betting on the underdog. But if you notice a trend between two teams that favors the dog, I highly recommend jumping into the action.

6 ‒ Teams Coming Off Rest

The MLB regular season is a marathon that usually stretches from early April well into late September. Over those six months, teams play 162 games and travel thousands of miles, making it by far in a way the most taxing regular season of all major sports in the United States. Because of this, teams are prone to go through ebbs and flows due to the physical and mental demands they face during the season.

It should go without saying, but athletes play better when they are well-rested. Even when teams only have one day off, that break in the action is crucial for long-term success. For whatever reason, rest is a relatively undervalued factor when it comes to making bets in baseball.

Take This Season, for Example:

Even though it’s an unconventional season, analyzing results after a day off is still relevant. In the American League East, teams are 9-6 coming off a day off. For this case study, I’m including time off due to postponed games to create a more comprehensive sample size.

Looking through history, teams are typically more productive after off days. Next time you are placing bets pay close attention to the scheduling as a day off may mean the difference between wins and losses.

Conclusion

Gambling on baseball is complicated, and at times, gamblers can find themselves overwhelmed by advanced statistics and past results. Like other sports, there’s no need to overthink it. If you approach each potential wager with a keen eye, you’ll find a betting system that will work for you.

When deciding what types of bets to place, don’t let yourself get bogged down over run lines, money lines, over/unders, and prop bets. Consider starting with a particular team, or division and scout out the best betting opportunities. The most profitable bets can come from betting on home underdogs and teams coming off rest.

Certain types of bets, while undoubtedly popular, should be avoided by aspiring gamblers. These include betting on big money favorites whose odds have been inflated by an under-informed betting public. Make sure to avoid other common pitfalls, like putting a large portion of your bankroll on props and parlays. These bets are fun for common fans but don’t typically lead to profitable returns.

Michael Stevens

Michael Stevens has been researching and writing topics involving the gambling industry for well over a decade now and is considered an expert on all things casino and sports betting. Michael has been writing for GamblingSites.org since early 2016. …

View all posts by Michael Stevens

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

5-questions-new-ncaa-basketball-gamblers-need-to-answer

5 Questions New NCAA Basketball Gamblers Need to Answer

twin-river-to-acquire-jumer’s-casino-&-hotel-in-illinois

Twin River to acquire Jumer’s Casino & Hotel in Illinois