Two weeks are in the books and we’ve seen plenty of ups and downs in regards to betting on the NFL. One of the crazier results of the week was the Atlanta Falcons choking the game away against the Cowboys as Dallas came back from down 15 points with eight minutes left in the game.
Prior to the Falcons loss, teams that scored 39 points with no turnovers were 440-0 since 1933.
Underdogs had a solid showing this past week as the Rams (+1.5) and Raiders (+5.5) both won outright while the Dolphins and the Chargers covered their spreads. Yet, favorites are still 18-14 ATS, the Over is 19-13, and home teams are 19-13 SU in 2020 so far.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at the Week 3 NFL betting lines and see where we can make some money.
Quick Recap of Week 2 Best Bets
If it weren’t for the Chargers, I would’ve swept my best bets for Week 2. The following picks hit:
- 49ers win by more than 7 points
- Bills covered 3 point 1st half spread
- Colts win outright
- Tampa Bay covered 4 point 1st half spread
I had picked the Chiefs to cover their spread, but that didn’t pan out. Not only didn’t KC cover, but they almost lost the game outright as they went into OT and won 23-20.
Steelers Beat Texans by More Than a FG
- Steelers -3.5 (-111)
Right now, I don’t like anything about the Houston Texans. They have no legitimate #1 WR, an o-line that is inconsistent, and a defense that’s on the field for too long and fades in the second half.
In their first two games, Houston has allowed 33.5 ppg to the Chiefs and the Ravens. They’ve also given up 405.5 total ypg.
Per PFF, the Texans offensive line currently leads the NFL in total pressures allowed. Conversely, the Steelers currently lead the league in total pressures.
Dupree & Watt#Steelerspic.twitter.com/JzIorXzNjn
— Steelers Depot 🏆👑 (@Steelersdepot) September 21, 2020
The Steelers are averaging 26 ppg and 395 total ypg. Additionally, Pittsburgh looks like they have a Top 5 defense that swarms after opposing QBs. PPF lists the Texans’ o-line as the worst against pressure and the Steelers defense as the best at applying pressure on the QB.
The Steelers are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings against Houston. Pittsburgh is 5-1 SU in their last six home games.
The Texans are 1-4 ATS in their last five overall games, 1-4-1 ATS in their last six road games and 1-5 ATS in their last six AFC games.
I don’t see Houston moving the ball against this Steelers defense. Eventually, Pittsburgh will pull away late and win this game by a touchdown or more.
Bears and Falcons Over 47.5 Points
- Over 47.5 points (-115)
Heading into this Week 3 matchup, the Bears are averaging 22 ppg and the Falcons are averaging 32 ppg. This isn’t the typical defensive battle we’ve seen in the past. These two teams score on offense while playing questionable defense at best.
Atlanta gives up 490.5 total ypg and 39 ppg. That’s good news for a Bears offense looking to score at least the 27 points they put up in their Week 1 win over the Detroit Lions.
The Bears gave up 23 points to the Lions in Week 1 and I see this defense giving up at least that many points to the Falcons on Sunday. Chicago allows 269 passing ypg, which bodes well for Atlanta QB Matt Ryan who’s averaged 361.5 passing ypg in the first two weeks.
The Over is 5-1 in Atlanta’s last six overall games and 5-0 in their last five NFC contests. I see these two teams combining for over 50 points in this matchup, so make sure to take the over when NFL betting this week.
Green Bay Packers Getting 3 Points
- Packers +3 (-103)
After how bad the Saints looked on MNF football against the Raiders, I have a hard time believing that they will beat Green Bay by more than a field goal especially without WR Michael Thomas.
The Saints are giving up 28.5 ppg as they allowed the Raiders to put up 34 points on them. Green Bay is scoring 42.5 ppg and putting up 510.5 total ypg, 302 passing ypg, and 208.5 rushing ypg.
New Orleans is allowing 260.5 passing ypg, which bodes well for GB’s Aaron Rodgers who is having a monster season so far.
I see the Packers taking away Alvin Kamara this game and forcing Drew Brees to beat them with an “average” cast of receivers.
Green Bay is 8-1 SU in their last nine overall games, 8-1 SU in their last nine NFC games, 7-2 SU in their last nine September games, and 7-0 SU in games following a divisional win. The Saints are 9-11 ATS in their last 20 home games.
For more on this game, check out our Packers vs Saints prediction.
Chiefs Getting 3.5 Points on MNF
- Chiefs +3.5 (-115)
I can’t ignore the Chiefs this week as they’re getting 3.5 points in an epic MNF clash against the Baltimore Ravens. This is a battle of the two best teams in the NFL and it should be a shootout.
The Chiefs are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 overall games, 5-1 ATS when an Underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points, 5-1 ATS in their last six games as an Underdog, 10-5 ATS in their last 15 road games, 9-0 SU in their last nine September games.
This was a completed pass 🤯 pic.twitter.com/SfEVPZ3Qc4
— Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs) September 21, 2020
The Ravens are 8-7 ATS when a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points, 3-4 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points, and 8-11 ATS in their last 19 home games.
In their last three meetings, the Chiefs are 3-0 against the Ravens. Furthermore, KC is 6-4 SU and 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games vs Baltimore.
I expect this game to be a shootout as both teams should score at least 27 points apiece. Additionally, I expect both QBs to play extremely well and put up big numbers.
Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson have won the last two NFL MVP awards and a victory in Week 3 could go a long ways toward another MVP win and a potential Playoff tiebreaker at the end of the season.
Take KC, Mahomes and the points on Monday Night Football.
Rick Rockwell
As a longtime freelance writer, avid sports fan, former athlete, and experienced sports bettor, Rick Rockwell has risen up the ranks at GamblingSites.org to become the self-professed “King of the Blog” in his first year with the site. …
