One quarter of the season is complete and we’re still in shock with the amount of offense that teams are generating this season. Touchdowns and points are on pace to shatter all previous records. Additionally, various QBs are looking to rewrite the history books with monster seasons.
Betting trends have shifted in some areas, which makes things a bit trickier when picking NFL wagers to bet on this week. Over the first few weeks of the season, betting favorites and home teams had winning records against the spread.
That’s all changed heading into Week 5. Betting favorites are now 31-31-1 ATS and home teams are 28-34-1 ATS. Furthermore, home favorites are a surprising 19-22 ATS. In other words, there’s no home field advantage until the fans come back.
One last trend to take a look at is the Over/Under. As of now, the Over is still holding a solid advantage with a 37-26 record. The Over is hitting 58.7% of the time.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at our best bets for Week 5 of the 2020 NFL season.
Quick Recap of Week 4’s Best Bets
In Week 4, I went 3-1 with the following NFL wagers:
- Denver to Win Outright vs Jets
- Cowboys and Browns to Score More Than 55pts
- Bills Up by a FG at Halftime vs Raiders
- Packers and Falcons Will Score At Least 60 Total Points
It was dicey at first for the Broncos, but they were able to pull away late in the game and beat the Jets. Dallas and Cleveland easily went over 55pts as Cleveland scored 47pts and the Cowboys scored 38.
Buffalo proved once again that they’re a 1st half team as they were up by 4 points on the Raiders at halftime. But, the lone loss in Week 4 came with the Packers vs Falcons bet as they failed to go Over 57.5 points. They were surprisingly Under at just 46 total points.
On the season, I’m 11-2 with these weekly best bet predictions.
Buccaneers Win By a TD or More
- Tampa Bay -5.5 (-110)
Both teams enter this Week 4 matchup with identical records of 3-1. However, when comparing these two teams, there’s very little similarities.
Chicago’s offense is absolutely a mess with QB changes, no run game and a defense that’s on the field far too long. They will face a stout Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense that allows only 64.3 rushing ypg, which means the Bears will have to win by throwing the ball. That didn’t work last week against the Colts.
Tampa’s offense is beginning to heat up despite the injuries. Specifically, Tom Brady is starting to feel comfortable with his new team as he’s put up over 650 passing yards and eight TD passes in the last two games.
Tampa has a balanced attack on offense as they’ve been very committed to the run, which they might be able to find some success versus the Bears on Thursday Night Football as Chicago gives up 115 rushing ypg.
The Bears are 1-6 ATS in their last seven October games and 4-12 ATS in their last 16 overall games. The Bucs are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games.
Take “Tampa Tom” and the Bucs to beat the Bears by a touchdown or more. For additional information on this game, check out our in-depth Bucs vs Bears betting prediction.
Panthers to Cover a FG
- Carolina +3 (-115)
Let me be the first to say that I have shocked even myself by picking the Carolina Panthers this week. But, if you have watched them this season, they appear to be getting better.
The Panthers are 2-2 on the year with wins over the Chargers and the Cardinals in consecutive weeks. They also had a shot at beating the Raiders in Week 1, but came up short in the end.
Even more impressive is that their two victories have come with star running back Christian McCaffrey on the shelf due to an ankle injury. Backup RB Mike Davis has done a great job filling in for McCaffrey.
The reason I believe that Carolina has a strong chance at not only covering the spread, but possibly even winning the game outright is due to their offensive matchup against the pathetic Falcons defense.
Gonna have a good day 🎶 pic.twitter.com/np4J52SOXn
— Carolina Panthers (@Panthers) October 5, 2020
Carolina is putting up 24.8ppg, 403 total ypg, 286.8 passing ypg, and 116.3 rushing ypg. They will have a juicy matchup this Sunday against a terrible Falcons defense.
Atlanta is allowing 34.5ppg, 460.5 total ypg, 353.8 passing ypg, and 106.8 rushing ypg. The Falcons are 0-4 on the season and look hopeless heading into Week 5.
Atlanta’s passing attack has been the lone bright spot this season as they’re putting up 311.5 ypg. They also have two great receivers in Ridley and Jones. However, the run game and the offensive line are inconsistent at best, which hinders the overall success.
Carolina is 5-1 ATS in their last six October games, 6-3 ATS in their last nine Week 5 through Week 9 games. Atlanta is 2-12 ATS in their last 14 October games, 6-12 ATS in their last 18 games as the favorite, and 7-15 ATS in their last 22 dome games.
Historically, Atlanta has dominated this series over the last few years. However, the eye test shows us that Carolina is the better football team right now.
Colts to Beat the Browns Outright
- Colts (-140)
The Cleveland Browns put up some eye popping numbers in their game against the Cowboys last Sunday. Unfortunately, they go from playing one of the worst defenses in the league, to playing the best defense in the NFL.
Indy’s defense is 1st in total yards (236.3 ypg), 1st in scoring (14ppg), 1st against the pass (159.3 ypg), and 4th against the run (77 ypg). They have completely shut down opposing offenses over the last three weeks and haven’t given up more than 11 points during that stretch.
Cleveland ran into trouble in Week 1 against the aggressive Ravens defense as they only scored 6 points and were dominated all game long. The Browns might be able to score 2 or 3 times this week against the Indianapolis Colts, but I don’t expect them to surpass 21 points.
Further working against the Browns is that Cleveland has the 3rd worse passing defense as they allow 310.5 ypg. They’re also giving up 31.5 ppg, which bodes well for the Colts offense.
Other than injuries, I don’t see a path to victory for the Browns. For more betting details, check out our Colts vs Browns betting pick.
Seahawks vs Vikings Score 60 Total Points
- Over 57.5 total points (-115)
Minnesota’s defense has been one of the worst in the league over the first month of the season. Not only are they giving up 31.3ppg, but they also give up 291.8 passing ypg which is the 4th worst in the league.
This weekend, they face one of the best offenses in the NFL as the Seattle Seahawks feature a Top 3 passing attack with QB Russell Wilson putting up historic numbers.
The Vikings also give up 134.8 rushing ypg which means Seattle’s run game led by Chris Carson should be able to find success moving the chains and scoring. The Seahawks average 35.5ppg and 434.5 total ypg.
The Seahawks and Packers are climbing in our latest Power Rankings 📈
— NFL on ESPN (@ESPNNFL) October 6, 2020
The Vikings will have plenty of opportunities to put up points as well as Seattle gives up 27.3ppg while Minnesota scores 26.5ppg. Furthermore, Seattle gives up 408.5 passing ypg which is good news for Kirk Cousins, Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson.
The Over is 7-1 in the last eight head to head games that take place in Seattle. Additionally, the Over is 4-1 in Seattle’s last five overall games and 6-3 in Minnesota’s last nine games on the road.
I can see these two teams combining for 60 points in a shootout where the Vikings could get plenty of garbage time scores. Russ will keep cooking up opposing defenses and the scoreboards. I wouldn’t be surprised if Seattle crosses the 40 point threshold.
As a longtime freelance writer, avid sports fan, former athlete, and experienced sports bettor, Rick Rockwell has risen up the ranks at GamblingSites.org to become the self-professed “King of the Blog” in his first year with the site. …