The Best NASCAR Prop Bets for the Instacart 500

On March 14^th, NASCAR will make the first of two annual trips to Phoenix Raceway with the Instacart 500. This is the 5^th race of the season and it will be contested on a one mile track.

In addition to the race winner, there are numerous prop bets to examine and wager on. Let’s take a look at the best Instacart 500 prop bets courtesy of NASCAR betting sites Bovada and Draftkings.

Eyes on the prize 👀#GeneralTire150 | Call 811 #BeforeYouDig200 | #Instacart500 pic.twitter.com/e3CCK9i4hS

— Phoenix Raceway (@phoenixraceway) March 11, 2021

Phoenix Driver Matchups

In order to win these prop bets on the NASCAR Instacart 500, you must pick which driver that you think will finish higher:

Kevin Harvick vs Brad Keselowski

I’m really surprised that Keselowski is favored in this matchup considering how Harvick has dominated at this track more than any other driver ever.

In 23 starts, Keselowski has no wins, seven Top 5s, 11 Top 10s and a 13.0 average finish. He was 11^th in this race last year and 2^nd in the fall Phoenix race.

In 36 starts, Harvick has nine wins, 18 Top 5s, 25 Top 10s, and an 8.9 average finish. He leads all drivers in those statistical categories.

He also finished 2^nd and 7^th in the two Phoenix races. Furthermore, Harvick has finished in the Top 9 in 15 straight Phoenix races.

Keselowski sits higher in the driver standings than Harvick, but the #4 car is the man to beat at Phoenix this weekend.

Chase Elliott vs Denny Hamlin

Chase Elliott is the odds on favorite to win the Instacart 500 as he is in this head to head matchup. Elliott won the fall race last year and was 7^th in the Instacart 500 for 2020.

In 10 career starts, he has one win, three Top 5s and six Top 10s with an 11.8 average finish which is 4^th best among active drivers.

In 31 starts at Phoenix, Hamlin has two wins, 14 Top 5s, and 18 Top 10s along with an 11.0 average finish which is 3^rd best among drivers.

Can’t wait for @dennyhamlin to start the engine in his new No. 11 #Offerpad Toyota Camry on Sunday @phoenixraceway! You can download Denny’s new hero card here for FREE! https://t.co/8zE3cefVnM and check out this video of the Offerpad car full wrap: https://t.co/1vfw4EQMXW pic.twitter.com/0TVHhhWUh7

— Offerpad (@Offerpad) March 11, 2021

Furthermore, Hamlin has outperformed Elliott on the season so far. Hamlin has three Top 5s, three Top 10s, the most laps led, the most stage wins (3) and the most Playoff Points as he sits in 1^st place for the driver standings.

Elliott has just one Top 5 and Top 10, half as many laps led, and just one stage win as he sits 4^th in the standings.

I like Hamlin to finish Top 5 and edge out Elliott this weekend as I think he’s racing better than the reigning Cup Series champ is.

Best Finish of the Group

• Kyle Busch (+240)
• Joey Logano (+240)
• Kyle Larson (+250)
• Martin Truex Jr. (+280)

In the driver standings, all three of the other drivers sit higher than Kyle Busch, yet it’s the 2019 Cup champion that I like to win in this group battle.

Busch has three wins at Phoenix where Truex and Larson don’t have any. Logano does have two wins and is the reigning Instacart 500 winner.

Busch has the second best average finish at 10.5 with Larson 5^th (12.0), Logano 9^th (13.9), and Truex further back (15.9).

Busch has 22 Top 10s where the other three drivers have 29 total Top 10 finishes. Busch has 12 Top 5s where the other three drivers have 15 total Top 5s.

In the last 11 races at this track, Busch has never finished worse than 11^th. The other 10 races he was 7^th or better which includes two wins and five Top 3s.

I see Busch, Larson and Logano all cracking the Top 5, but I like Kyle Busch to have the best finish of this group.

Instacart 500 Car Prop Bets

Car Number of Race Winner

• Even (-140)
• Odd (+110)

The Even option is the significant favorite in this prop bet and that’s due to drivers like Keselowski (2), Harvick (4), Busch (18) and Logano (22). Those are four of the Top 7 betting favorites.

On our last trip to @phoenixraceway, @chaseelliott claimed his first #NASCAR Cup Series championship! 🏆#TBT | @NAPARacing pic.twitter.com/xGZAouVf7r

— Hendrick Motorsports (@TeamHendrick) March 11, 2021

The Odd option is led by Larson (5), Elliott (9), Hamlin (11) and Truex (19). Those are four of the Top 8 favorites.

With that said, I have to go with the Even here. I really like Harvick to win the race, but also have Logano and Busch in my Top 5 drivers for Sunday’s race.

Car Number of Race Winner

• Over 10.5 (-130)
• Under 10.5 (+105)

I’m slightly surprised that the Over is getting the advantage in this prop bet. Yes, it features Hamlin (11), Busch (18), Truex (19) and Logano (22), but the Under is the better play.

With the Under 10.5 option you get Keselowski (2), Harvick (4), Larson (5) and Elliott (9). I like Harvick to win and oddsmakers like Keselowski or Elliott to win. Take the Under and the solid value.

Manufacturer of Race Winner

• Ford (+145)
• Chevrolet (+175)
• Toyota (+215)

Ford is the favorite for this prop bet despite only having four wins in this race. Yet, don’t be quick to write them off as Ford features Harvick, Keselowski, Logano and Blaney. That’s quite the group. And, at this track, it’s the best foursome.

Chevy has 10 wins, but five of them were when Harvick drove for that manufacturer. Now, the best options for Chevrolet are Larson and Elliott.

As for Toyota, it always comes down to Joe Gibbs Racing and their four drivers Hamlin, Busch, Truex, and Bell.

Although I like Hamlin and Busch to crack the Top 5 this weekend, I think Ford is going to take this prop bet due to Harvick and/or Keselowski.

Team of Race Winner

• Joe Gibbs Racing (+235)
• Team Penske (+250)
• Hendrick Motor Sports (+250)
• Stewart-Haas Racing (+500)
• Any Other Team (+1600)
• Chip Ganassi Racing (+2200)
• Richard Childress racing (+3300)
• Roush Fenway Racing (+5000)
• JTG Daughtery Racing (+8000)

This is probably the hardest prop bet of them all. As mentioned above, Joe Gibbs Racing has Hamlin, Truex, Bell and Busch. That’s a powerful group that typically is the team to beat each weekend.

However, they will have strong competition from Team Penske, Hendrick Motorsports and Stewart-Haas Racing.

Team Penske features Keselowski, Logano and Blaney. Hendrick Motorsports features Elliott and Larson while Kevin Harvick drives for Stewart-Haas.

I believe Harvick will win the race, but I think this is a good opportunity to hedge our bets by taking either Team Penske or JGR.

You can’t go wrong with either team for this prop bet, but I am leaning towards JGR as I like Busch and Hamlin over Keselowski and Logano this Sunday.

Other Instacart 500 Prop Bets

Grid Position of the Race Winner

• Over 6.5 (-120)
• Under 6.5 (-110)

Brad Keselowski is on the Pole with Kyle Larson right beside him on the front row. They’re followed by Hamlin, Bell, Truex, and Elliott. That’s quite a formidable front three rows.

The #2crew is going to love this! @keselowski will start on the pole for Sunday’s race at @phoenixraceway! pic.twitter.com/QWr2Lmv34D

— NASCAR (@NASCAR) March 10, 2021

The Over option includes Busch (7^th), Logano (9^th), and Harvick (18^th).

I think this is another opportunity to hedge our bets. Although three of my projected Top 5 drivers are Over 6.5, five contenders are Under 6.5 which gives us more of a shot at winning some money on Sunday.