Top 3 MLB Player Prop Bets – April 25, 2022

We have seven games going on tonight’s MLB schedule, so there’s enough action to warrant some MLB player prop bets to be sure!

Let’s go ahead and look at my top three of the night and lock them in on some of the best online baseball betting sites!

*Odds courtesy of BetOnline

If you read my daily DraftKings MLB DFS Picks, you’ll often see correlations between some of those picks and my picks here. I will try to diversify my picks of course, but this one is too juicy to pass up on as are a couple other players I used on DraftKings tonight.

Solak takes on the Astros and left-hander Framber Valdez in this one. Valdez is a ground-ball machine with solid peripherals underneath a 4.50 ERA for the season. He also keeps the ball in the yard at a 0.80 HR/9 clip both last season and for his career and has yet to allow a long ball in three starts this season.

That’s all well and good, but this simply has more to do with Solak who has come out of the gate hot and loves himself some left-handed pitching.

Solak enters this one hitting .258 for the season, but he’s also hitting for early-season power with a pair of homers in 11 games that gives him a .194 ISO for the season. He sports a tiny .123 ISO for his career, but at 27 with just 229 career MLB contests under his belt, perhaps this is a season when Solak can cement himself as a threat at the plate.

He’s already a threat against left-handed pitching. The second-round pick has hit lefties for a .296 average, .814 OPS, .354 wOBA and 125 wRC+ for his career. Again, the power isn’t ideal with a .148 ISO, but his start this season off lefties has been excellent.

Solak is 7 for 17 (.412) with two home runs off left-handed piching so far this season. He’s also 3 for 9 in his career off Valdez, although with all three hits resulting in singles. I also like the fact that Solak is a .341 career hitter at home against left-handed pitching across a 126 at-bat sample while he owns a strong .492 SLG and improved .151 ISO at home off lefties for his career as well.

A double gets us the W here, but Solak certainly has the ability to torch another homer off a lefty in this one tonight.

Bohm has been something of a lightning rod early in the season given some controversial on-field comments combined with shotty glove work at the hot corner. That said, he’s been a menace at the plate while he too loves some left-handed pitching.

Bohm takes on the Rockies and southpaw Kyle Freeland in this one tonight. Freeland owns an ugly 7.71 ERA on the season, and while the peripherals are much better (4.30 FIP/4.15 SIERA), he’s still yielded a .347 average and .947 OPS to right-handed hitters this season. Freeland has surrendered a .345 OBP and .800 OPS to righties for his career, so there should be traffic on the bases for Bohm to drive in some runs while Freeland has also surrendered homers at a 1.26 HR/9 to righties in his career.

For his part, Bohm enters this one hitting .355 for the season with a homer and two doubles, a .161 ISO, .916 OPS, .387 wOBA and 151 wRC+. The good news is the peripherals back up the excellent results so far this season.

Bohm also ranks in the league’s 97th percentile in average exit velocity, 86th in hard-hit rate, 90th in xwOBA, 95th in xBA, 86th in xSLG and 68th in barrel rate. Combining his on-field results and the peripherals that back them up, Bohm has been fantastic at the dish this season.

And then there’s the work off lefties. For his career, he’s hit .292 with a  .173 ISO, .828 OPS, .355 wOBA and 122 wRC+. At home off lefties he’s posted a .290 average, .232 ISO, .895 OPS, .377 wOBA and 135 wRC+.

This season, Bohm is 4 for 10 with a pair of doubles off left-handed pitching and 3 for 6 with both of those doubles off lefties at home.

All of this is fantastic, and when you factor in the venue it’s the icing on the cake. Citizens Bank Park in Philly is one of the best hitter’s parks in baseball, earning a 103 park factor (100 being average) over the last three seasons, according to BaseBall Savant. That ties them with Truist Park in Atlanta for the sixth-best hitter’s park in baseball.

Furthermore, the venue’s 115 home run metric is tied with the Rogers Centre in Toronto for the sixth-best home run venue in baseball in that time period.

All of the above suggests Bohm should certainly be able to get over this total.

Buehler takes on the D-backs tonight in Arizona, a team that has struggled with the punchout so far this season.

The D-backs are tied for the third-highest K-rate in baseball at 25.5% for the season. The good news here is that that mark elevates to 27.3% against right-handed pitching which is the highest mark in the big leagues.

As for Buehler, he has struck out hitters at just 16.2% for the season, a mark well below average. However, let’s not forget this is a guy that owns a 27.3% mark for his career and posted a figure of 28.6% or better in two of the last three seasons. His 12.2% swinging strike rate is actually above his 11.6% career mark, but he needs to reign in his control as his 14.5% called strike rate is below his 17.9% career figure.

Buehler’s 8.8% walk rate is above his 6.4% career mark and easily the worst mark over the last four seasons. He’ll get his control back which will result in more called strikes.

This looks like the best matchup possible to have that positive punchout regression to kick in for the Dodgers ace.