UCLA vs Michigan Elite Eight Pick and Best Odds

The East Regional final features a couple of teams that may not have been expected to advance this far. Michigan is the top seed in this region, but they were also viewed as the most vulnerable of the four No. 1 seeds in this tournament. However, Juwan Howard’s squad has picked up three straight wins over Texas Southern, LSU, and Florida State to reach the Elite Eight.

Moneyline Betting Odds: UCLA vs Michigan

• Michigan (-290)
• UCLA (+245)

Spread Betting Odds: UCLA vs Michigan

• Michigan -6.5 (-110)
• UCLA +6.5 (-110)

Over/Under Betting Odds: UCLA vs Michigan

• Over 136 (-110)
• Under 136 (-110)

The Wolverines will take on a UCLA team that has truly come out of nowhere. The 11th-seeded Bruins were betting underdogs to Michigan State in the First Four matchup, but they have managed to pull off a number of timely upsets on their way to their own Elite Eight appearance. UCLA toppled Michigan State in overtime before wins over BYU, Abilene Christian, and Alabama.

Betting sites that offer odds on the Elite Eight expect UCLA’s run to come to an end tonight, but it certainly isn’t the first time the Bruins will have been betting underdogs. Michigan is a 6.5-point favorite here in a game with an over/under of 136 points.

Michigan Back on Track

Michigan was a suspect No. 1 seed because they entered the Big Dance in wobbly form. Michigan finished its season losing three of five games, along with an upset loss to Ohio State in the Big Ten Tournament semifinals. Michigan got a top seed because the Big Ten was arguably the best conference in America during the regular season, and the Wolverines are now the last B1G team standing.

Michigan has flipped the script completely since the tourney began, thanks in large part to stellar play on the defensive end of the floor. The Wolverines were able to blow out Florida State, which was one of the premier shooting teams in the country, in the Sweet Sixteen. Michigan held the Seminoles to just 58 points in that game on 40 percent shooting from the field.

Franz Wagner individual defense versus FSU. Exceptional mobility, lateral quickness, and length🔒 pic.twitter.com/GhFtkVqsFe

— Eric Shapiro (@eric_shap) March 29, 2021

Franz Wagner and Hunter Dickinson have picked up the slack in a big way for a Michigan team playing without Isaiah Livers. Wagner is a presumptive NBA lottery pick later this year, while Dickinson is a 7’1″ freshman that has proven to be a nightmare matchup for opposing teams. Wagner posted a double-double against the Seminoles with 13 points and 10 rebounds, while Dickinson was the co-leading scorer with 14 points and eight boards of his own.

Michigan’s ability to get easy buckets and dominate the glass will come in handy tonight. UCLA was able to upset Alabama over the weekend thanks to the Crimson Tide’s lackluster showing on the defensive glass. Michigan will need to bring the same defensive intensity we saw against Florida State to this game tonight. Winning the rebounding battle may also be enough to get the Wolverines into the Final Four.

Can UCLA Stay Alive?

There is really no good explanation for how UCLA has gotten this far. The Bruins limped their way through a middling regular season before catching fire in the tournament. UCLA needed a dramatic overtime performance to get past Michigan State in the First Four, and they triumphed in overtime again in the last round against Alabama.

UCLA wound up winning by 10, but the Tide had plenty of opportunities. Alabama finished the game shooting just 11-for-25 from the free-throw line, which was ultimately the difference. The Bruins were able to survive despite leading scorer Johnny Juzang fouling out early.

Franz Wagner individual defense versus FSU. Exceptional mobility, lateral quickness, and length🔒 pic.twitter.com/GhFtkVqsFe

— Eric Shapiro (@eric_shap) March 29, 2021

Cody Riley has been one of the most important players for the Bruins over the course of their run. The junior big man will have to be on his game again tonight in his matchup with Dickinson. Riley posted a double-double in the round of 32 win over  Abilene Christian, while he came up big with four blocks against ‘Bama in the Sweet Sixteen. Dealing with the 7’1″ Dickinson will be a unique challenge for the 6’9″ junior, however.

Alabama was a team that relied on playing at a quick pace and knocking down threes. While Michigan can shoot it from deep, the Wolverines are a much bigger threat to do damage inside. Riley and the rest of the Bruins’ frontline will have to prioritize keeping Dickinson from catching the ball too close to the rim. Forcing him out of the paint may ultimately be UCLA’s key to another upset tonight.

What’s the Best Bet?

UCLA has benefited from some luck to this point. Alabama shot the ball terribly from just about everywhere on the floor in the last round, but the Tide were still able to take the game to overtime. Michigan isn’t going to rely nearly as heavily on knocking down shots from the perimeter. The Wolverines have enough size to give UCLA serious trouble in the paint.

Juzang and Jaime Jaquez Jr. will have to show up in a big way once again tonight if UCLA plans to keep their season alive. The Bruins have continuously defied the odds so far in this tournament, but I think this is the spot their run finally comes to a halt. UCLA just doesn’t have the size to combat Michigan defensively. It’s tough to predict blowouts at this stage of the tournament, but this looks like a serious mismatch on paper.

Bet Michigan to roll in this one. The 6.5-point spread is a bit too generous to a UCLA team that has been playing over its head of late. Bet Michigan to cover and don’t overthink it.