UFC 258: Usman vs Burns Betting Preview, Odds and Picks

On Saturday, February 13^th, the UFC returns to its Apex Center in Las Vegas, Nevada, for an exciting PPV card UFC 258: Usman vs Burns which begins at 10PM ET.

The main event of the night is a welterweight title fight as Kamaru Usman defends his belt against his former teammate Gilbert Burns. The co-featured bout is a Top 15 women’s flyweight contest between Maycee Barber and Alexa Grasso.

Also on the PPV portion of this card is a Top 15 middleweight matchup between Kevin Gastelum and Ian Heinisch, a middleweight clash between Maki Pitolo and Julian Marquez, and a replacement fight from the preliminary card for the recently cancelled Munhoz vs Rivera bout.

Online sportsbooks for UFC betting have released their odds for the full UFC 258 PPV lineup. Let’s step inside the betting octagon to examine these odds, identify any betting value, and dirty box these predictions.

Three days until the nightmare is unleashed… 🏆

[ #UFC258 – LIVE on #ESPNPlus PPV: https://t.co/BCod56tJ66 ] pic.twitter.com/xlzMqCxQkZ

— UFC (@ufc) February 10, 2021

Munhoz vs Rivera is Postponed, Ewell vs Gutierrez Added

Pedro Munhoz (18-5) vs Jimmie Rivera (23-4) was a highly anticipated bantamweight bout as the two men were looking to win this rematch. Unfortunately, this bout was removed from UFC 258 and will be rescheduled for a later date due to coronavirus issues.

The UFC has decided to book Andrew Ewell vs Chris Gutierrez for UFC 258 to replace the postponed Munhoz vs. Rivera fight.

As of this writing, it’s unclear as to which prelim bout will get moved up to the main card. It could be Ewell vs Gutierrez or it could be Jim Miller vs Bobby Green. Both of these fights have already been examined in our UFC 258 Preliminary Card betting preview.

Julian Marquez vs Maki Pitolo

• Julian Marquez (-165)
• Maki Pitolo (+145)
• Over (-165)/Under (+145) 1.5 rounds

Maki Pitolo is on a two fight losing streak with both losses coming last August. He’s gone 1-3 inside the octagon since joining the UFC in the fall of 2019.

The 30 year old Hawaiian is a scrappy fighter, but has had some rough matchups since joining the UFC. This will be another one. 10 of his 13 pro wins have come via stoppage with seven by way of TKO/KO. He’s 3-2 when going the distance.

Julian Marquez hasn’t competed in the octagon in nearly three years. His last fight was July 2018 where he lost via split decision to Alessio Di Chirico. Prior to that, he had won five straight bouts and is 1-1 inside the octagon.

All seven of his pro wins have come via stoppage with six by way of TKO/KO. He’s 0-2 when going the distance and has never been stopped in his pro career.

Marquez was out for nearly two years due to an upper body injury. He was supposed to fight Saparbeg Safarov last November, but the fight was cancelled due to Safarov suffering from weight issues.

Marquez is excited about this contest and feels that he has the advantage in every area:

“I think I have the advantage in every situation. Maki is great but I am way faster, more powerful, better IQ, my striking is more polished and my durability is better. He will struggle in any situation we are in. I can finish him on the ground or on the feet and that is what I’m going to do. I’m going for the kill and put all 28 months of sheer pain and excitement and hurt and want, any type of feeling I had will come out. This is the first time I can come back and show what I can do.”

It’s hard to determine how long this bout will end because we’re just not sure what condition Marquez is in. Yet, don’t bring up ring rust to him as he doesn’t believe in such a thing. The safe play is taking the Over 1.5 rounds (-165) and for the fight to end inside the distance (-170).

I like Pitolo’s ruggedness and striking, but I believe a healthy and motivated Marquez will win this bout via TKO/KO before the 15 minutes are up. The best bet you can place on this fight on UFC betting apps is with Marquez winning inside the distance at +160 odds.

Kelvin Gastelum vs Ian Heinisch

• Kelvin Gastelum (-230)
• Ian Heinisch (+190)
• Over (-255)/Under (+215) 2.5 rounds

I am looking forward to this Top 15 ranked middleweight bout as the 15^th ranked Ian Heinisch looks to climb up the divisional ladder as he takes on the 9^th ranked Kelvin Gastelum.

Heinisch is 3-2 in the octagon having last fought in June 2020 where he beat Meerschaert via 1^st round TKO. The win snapped a two fight losing streak where he suffered consecutive decision losses.

Seven of his 14 pro wins have come via stoppage with five by TKO/KO. He’s 7-2 when going the distance and has only been stopped one time, which came via submission.

“I welcome that pressure and I believe that I thrive under that pressure.”@KelvinGastelum talks about his mentality heading into his #UFC258 showdown with Ian Heinisch 🔊⬆️

Order #UFC258 here ➡️: https://t.co/0vq9E4Rj58 pic.twitter.com/7Z87MAoJqZ

— UFC News (@UFCNews) February 10, 2021

As for his upcoming fight, Heinisch had the following comments about his opponent:

“I feel like I just have to mix it up. Between (the) clinch, striking with him, taking him down, just mixing everything up, just being super unpredictable. His timing is impeccable and so I can’t be the guy who’s one-dimensional. I feel he’s a little one-dimensional, and I’m gonna expose that.”

Gastelum is on a three fight losing streak with all three coming against top ranked middleweights: Adesanya, Till and Hermansson. He’s 10-6 in the UFC and his back is against the wall. A 4^th straight loss could see Gastelum bounced from the promotion.

10 of his 15 pro wins have come via stoppage with six by way of TKO/KO. He’s 5-4 when going the distance.

Despite the losing streak, Gastelum is only focused on the upcoming fight and nothing else:

“To be honest, I haven’t really thought about it much. I’ve just been concentrating on this fight and concentrating on Ian Heinisch and being more present – being more aware and more present into who Ian Heinisch is. That’s who I’m focused on.”

The winner of this fight will definitely get a boost in the rankings. For Gastelum, it’s a shot at redemption and moving back up towards the Top 5. For Heinisch, it’s a shot at cracking the Top 10 and defeating a Top 10 ranked fighter.

I expect his bout to go the full distance and Over 2.5 rounds (-255). Once there, I am going to take Heinisch in an upset.

Maycee Barber vs Alexa Grasso

• Maycee Barber (+105)
• Alexa Grasso (-125)
• Over (-250)/Under (+210) 2.5 rounds

10^th ranked flyweight Maycee Barber joined the UFC in the fall of 2018 and has gone 3-1 since then. She won her first three fights before dropping her last bout 13 months ago to Roxanne Modafferi via decision. That was the first loss of her pro career.

Seven of her eight pro wins have come via stoppage with five by way of TKO/KO. She’s 1-1 when going the distance.

Barber made the following comments about her upcoming fight against Grasso:

“She is breakable. She is one of those fighters, you know, who can break. She has shown that, and I’m one of those good fighters that will break someone. She is tough, though. She’s gritty and she’s tough, but that doesn’t mean that she’s not breakable. I guess I’ve never seen a path in my mind when I visualize the fight (where I don’t break her). I see myself breaking her. Whether that’s striking, whether that’s ground game, whether that’s wrestling, I’m ready to break her.”

The 15^th ranked Grasso is 4-3 in the UFC as she has alternated between wins and losses since joining the UFC in the fall of 2016. Her last bout came in August 2020 where she beat Ji Yeon Kim via unanimous decision.

Four of her eight pro wins have come via TKO/KO. She’s 8-2 when going the distance.

Grasso has made the move to flyweight in part due to her struggles to get down to strawweight. The move has been a positive on her mind and body as she declares that she feels great with this new path:

“I feel very happy, I feel great. This is a new path, you know. I’m new to the division, so I’m coming full strength, and just like I did at strawweight, I want to be at the very top.”

This is going to be an exciting co-main event between Top 15 ranked flyweights. If Grasso can win, then she would make a charge towards the Top 10. If Barber wins then she marches towards a Top 5 ranking.

Both women are solid strikers with the edge going to Grasso in technical striking, but the power advantage is with Barber. It’s hard to determine who truly has the advantage on the mat. With that in mind, I’m taking Barber to win via decision (+300).

Combined, these two women have only been stopped one time and that was a submission loss for Grasso. In their 24 pro fights, they’ve gone the distance in 12 of them with Grasso going to the judges in 10 of her 15 pro bouts. Take the Over 2.5 rounds (-250) and the fight to go the full 15 minutes (-215).

I give Barber the edge as her power shots will do more damage over the three rounds and I believe she will also earn points with the judges with her pressure and pace. The value for this fight is with each athlete’s moneyline.

Kamaru Usman vs Gilbert Burns

• Kamaru Usman (-275)
• Gilbert Burns (+235)
• Over (-155)/Under (+165) 4.5 rounds

Burns joined the UFC in the summer of 2014 and opened up his octagon career going 3-0. He then went 3-3 over his next six fights. Things turned around for Burns by the end of 2018 when he put together a seven fight win streak that brings him to this weekend’s bout.

Burns last fought nine months ago where he dominated Tyron Woodley in a unanimous decision. That followed a crushing 1^st round TKO over Demian Maia 11 months ago.

14 of his 19 pro wins have come via stoppage with eight by way of submission. He’s 5-2 when going the distance.

T minus 3 days away from #WORKTIME 👊🏿🌍🤴🏿 #UFC258 #ANDSTILL pic.twitter.com/o7QaWDilpg

— KAMARU USMAN (@USMAN84kg) February 10, 2021

Burns has a lot of respect for Usman as they were training partners for roughly eight years. He states that he still likes Usman, but that there is a big difference between the two:

“Kamaru looks first to domination. He wants to dominate you, put you in a bad spot, make you tired, wear you out and then beat you up. I’m different on that than Kamaru. I want to finish you, I want to beat you up, knock you out, submit you. If I cannot, if I think you’re going to stay there, then I think of domination.”

Kamaru Usman has won 16 straight fights and is 12-0 inside the octagon. He has a more impressive resume than Burns with wins over Maia, dos Anjos, Woodley, Covington and Masvidal. In fact, those were his last five fights in a row.

His last bout was July 2020 where he beat Masvidal via unanimous decision. It wasn’t the more entertaining of fights, but it was a dominant performance. Eight of his 17 pro wins have come via stoppage with seven by TKO/KO. He’s 9-0 when going the distance.

For Usman, he doesn’t think about Burns being a former teammate and friend. Instead, he goes inside the octagon and doesn’t even see the face of his opponent. It’s all about protecting what’s his and winning the fight:

“These guys all sit there and look at what I’ve earned and what I’ve worked for and say ‘I want that. I want to eat his food. I want to take his plate.’ So at the end of the day, I have to be that same savage to go in there and defend each and every time. It’s a little different in a sense but at the same time, I see no face. When we get in there, they’re all the same.”

Usman’s best chance at beating Burns is to grind him up against the cage and dirty box with elbows and punches or taking him down and maintaining top control to try and ground and pound.

For Burns to win, he needs to show quick movement with his attacks and counter punches. Additionally, he can rely on his jiu-jitsu to find a submission whether it’s up against the cage, in top control or on his back.

The familiarity and elite skills from both men make this world title fight very compelling. With that said, let’s start with the easy wagers first. Go with the Over 4.5 rounds (-155) and for the fight to go the distance (-150).

Nine of Usman’s 12 UFC fights have gone the distance. Three of Burns’ last four fights have gone the distance. You can also take the prop bet that the fight starts round five (-175).

Usman winning by decision is +100, while Burns by decision is listed at +640. Breaking it down further, Usman is listed at +140 odds for a unanimous decision win and Burns can be had at +1050. The best value for this bout is Usman via decision at +100 odds.

I believe Burns’ best chance at winning this fight is prior to the championship rounds. Unfortunately, it won’t happen.

Once they get into the 4^th and 5^th rounds, I believe Usman’s size will come into play and he will eventually wear down Burns. At this point, he will pull away on the scorecards to win via unanimous decision.