UFC on ESPN+ 37 Preliminary Card Betting Preview, Odds and Picks

On Saturday, October 10^th, the UFC will be live from Fight Island for UFC on ESPN+ 37 also known as UFC Fight Night 179 and UFC Fight Island 5.

This betting preview is for the UFC on ESPN+ 37 preliminary card that features seven bouts and begins at 5PM ET on ESPN+.

UFC betting sites have released their odds for the entire prelims portion of this event. Let’s step inside the betting octagon to examine these odds, identify potential betting value and hit these predictions with a flying knee.

Here’s next weekend’s #UFCFightIsland5 fightcard & Global times pic.twitter.com/MGbhdz2oBY

— MMA Form Guide (@MMAFormGuide) October 4, 2020

Tagir Ulanbekov vs Bruno Silva

• Tagir Ulanbekov (-390)
• Bruno Silva (+320)
• Over (-180)/Under (+150) 2.5 rounds

In what’s likely to be the opening fight of the Fight Island event, Bruno Silva enters as the largest underdog of the entire preliminary card. He’s currently winless in the UFC at 0-1 as he lost in March via unanimous decision to David Dvorak.

Silva is 2-2-1 in his last five fights and has a tough matchup on Saturday. Six of his 10 wins have come via stoppage with three wins apiece for submission and TKO/KO. He’s 4-2-2 when going the distance in a fight.

Tagir Ulanbekov is making his UFC debut this weekend. He trained with Khabib Nurmagomedov’s father who passed away over the summer. Ulanbekov has won three fights in a row, has the height and reach advantages, and is a better overall fighter than Silva.

Six of his 10 pro wins have come via stoppage with five by way of submission. He’s 4-1 when going the distance.

I see this fight going the full distance as Ulanbekov will be too much for Silva to handle. The Russian is a flyweight prospect with plenty of upside. He will be able to take whatever Silva throws at him and eventually take Bruno down to the mat where he will smother him for most of the fight.

The MMA prop bet for Ulanbekov to win via decision at +110 odds offers great value in this flyweight fight.

Tracy Cortez vs Stephanie Egger

• Tracy Cortez (-235)
• Stephanie Egger (+195)
• Over (-235)/Under (+195) 2.5 rounds

Stephanie Egger is on a three fight win streak who steps in to replace Bea Malecki on less than two weeks’ notice. Egger fought last month and won via 1^st round submission. Four of her five pro wins have come via stoppage with two wins each for submission and TKO/KO. She’s 1-1 when going the distance.

Tracy Cortez has won seven straight fights, but hasn’t competed in 11 months. She’s 1-0 in the UFC having won her debut last November via unanimous decision. Five of her seven pro wins have come via decision.

Cortez has the advantage in pretty much all aspects of this fight unless she makes a massive mistake and hands Egger a submission hold. Other than that, Cortez should cruise to a decision win.

This fight will go Over 2.5 rounds (-235) and go the distance (-230). Cortez has gone the distance in three straight fights while Egger has gone the distance in two of her last four contests.

Giga Chikadze vs Omar Morales

• Giga Chikadze (+125)
• Omar Morales (-145)
• Over (-225)/Under (+175) 2.5 rounds

Giga Chikadze comes into this contest as the slight underdog despite going 3-0 inside the octagon. He last fought in May and defeated Irwin Rivera via unanimous decision. All three of his UFC wins have come via decision.

Seven of his 10 pro wins have come via stoppage with six by way of TKO/KO. He’s 3-1 when going the distance.

Giga Chikadze Discusses His Fight at UFC Fight Night 179

.@giga_chikadze @ufc #UFCFightNight179 https://t.co/dIqub9Wnvz

— FanboyNation (@FanboyNation) October 5, 2020

Omar Morales is 2-0 inside the octagon and also last fought in May where he won via unanimous decision as well. Morales has yet to taste defeat in his career, but will face his toughest competition to date.

Seven of his 10 pro wins have come via stoppage with five by way of submission. Morales is 3-0 when going the distance.

Morales has never been stopped in his career, but he has gone the distance in three fights including his last two. I see this weekend’s bout going the full three rounds, but I believe Omar will suffer the first loss of his career.

I see this fight being exactly the type of matchup that suits Chikadze as he should be able to find success upright or on the mat. Either way, I believe he will edge out Morales with the judges.

Ali AlQaisi vs Tony Kelley

• Ali AlQaisi (+185)
• Tony Kelley (-225)
• Over (-240)/Under (+200) 2.5 rounds

Ali AlQaisi made his UFC debut in August after winning five straight fights. Unfortunately, he came up short as he lost via spit decision to Irwin Rivera. Five of his eight pro wins have come via stoppage with four by way of submission. He’s 3-3 when going the distance.

Kelley has only fought twice in the last four years after taking time off and dealing with injuries as well. He fought two months ago, but lost via unanimous decision to Kai Kamaka. Four of his five pro wins have come via stoppage with three by way of submission. He’s 1-2 when going the distance.

Kelley will have the height and reach advantage in this bout. He will also have a huge advantage in the standup department. I expect Kelley to light up AlQaisi on the feet and win via unanimous decision in this contest. AlQaisi has never been knocked out in his career.

Combined, these two men have gone the distance in six of their last seven fights. Kelley winning via decision offers great value at +140 odds.

Impa Kasanganay vs Joaquin Buckley

• Impa Kasanganay (-255)
• Joaquin Buckley (+215)
• Over (-170)/Under (+150) 2.5 rounds

The unbeaten middleweight Impa Kasanganay returns to the octagon six weeks after winning in his UFC debut via unanimous decision against Maki Pitolo. He earned that debut fight by winning on DWCS three weeks prior. This is his 3^rd fight in two months. Six of his eight pro wins have come via decision.

Buckley was originally set to face Abu Azaitar who withdrew from the fight due to undisclosed reasons. Buckley is 2-2 in his last four fights. Prior to joining the UFC, Buckley was in LFA and Bellator. He ended up losing his UFC debut two months ago via 3^rd round TKO to Kevin Holland.

Kasanganay is the better fighter in this contest. He’s showed more potential than Buckley has inside the octagon. Furthermore, since I believe this fight will go the distance, Kasanganay has proven to be a more successful fighter when it comes to going the full three rounds.

Kasanganay is 6-0 when going to the judges while Buckley is 3-1. He lost the last time a fight went the distance, which was his last fight for Bellator 2 ½ years ago.

Take this fight at UFC betting sites to go Over 2.5 rounds (-170), to go the full distance, and for Kasanganay to win via decision for the 5^th straight fight.

Kasanganay’s odds of +100 to win via decision offers great betting value for an undefeated fighter who’s gone the distance in 75% of his pro bouts.

Rodrigo Nascimento vs Christopher Daukaus

• Rodrigo Nascimento (-270)
• Christopher Daukaus (+230)
• Over (+130)/Under (-150) 1.5 rounds

Christopher Daukaus is making his second trip to the octagon two months after a successful UFC debut where he beat Parker Porter via 1^st round TKO. Daukaus has won seven of his last eight fights and is looking to for another win in the UFC .

Eight of his nine pro wins have come via TKO/KO. He’s 1-0 when going the distance and has suffered 2 TKO/KO losses.

Heavyweight prospect Chris Daukaus (@ChrisDaukausMMA) joins SCMP MMA’s @JHKMMA ahead of his fight with Rodrigo Nascimento on 10/10 on #UFCFightIsland in Abu Dhabi.

Daukaus says the game plan is always the same, “You’re getting smashed”

📺 https://t.co/HxgiC8EkPF pic.twitter.com/chdBRknPV4

— SCMP MMA (@scmpmma) September 28, 2020

Rodrigo Nascimento made his UFC debut in May and won via 2^nd round submission over Don’Tale Mayes. He’s undefeated in his career and earned a UFC opportunity by winning on DWCS via submission 15 months ago.

All eight of his wins have come via stoppage with six by way of submission. He’s never gone the full three rounds in a pro fight.

In 20 total fights, these two heavyweights have gone Over 1.5 rounds just twice. They know how to finish off their opponents and seek the stoppage. Take the Under 1.5 rounds (-150) and for this bout to end inside the distance (-425).

As for the winner, Nascimento has the advantage on the mat and I see him getting this fight to the ground where he will find the submission win. Daukaus has one submission loss in his career. This prop also offers the best value for the fight.

Tom Breese vs KB Bhullar

• Tom Breese (-265)
• KB Bhullar (+225)
• Over (-150)/Under (+120) 2.5 rounds

KB Bhullar is unbeaten in his career, but enters this weekend’s bout as a large betting underdog. Bhullar is a regional fighter looking to make a name for himself in his UFC debut. Six of his eight pro wins have come via stoppage with four by way of TKO/KO. He’s 2-0 when going the distance.

He was scheduled for an appearance on DWCS, but was given the green light to go right into the octagon instead. Six of his first seven wins came in the 1^st round.

Tom Breese is looking to get his first win of 2020 after losing in February via 1^st round TKO to Brendan Allen. That was his first fight in nearly two years after dealing with injuries. He’s just 1-2 in his last three fights, but 4-2 inside the octagon.

10 of his 11 pro wins have come via stoppage with six by way of submission. He’s 1-1 when going the distance.

Both fighters have a lot to prove in this matchup including whether or not they deserve to be in the UFC. I don’t feel confident in either fighter due to the question marks surrounding both of them.

With that said, I am leaning towards Bhullar in this contest. He’s a former champ in the Unified MMA promotion and he also has a bit of an edge to him. Plus, I really don’t like what I’ve seen from Breese in his last few fights.

I prefer to go with the O/U in this fight by taking the Under 2.5 rounds (+120) as these two men have combined to go over that mark just five times in 21 total fights.

I also believe this fight will end inside the distance (-110), which has the best value for this bout. They’ve combined to go the distance in just four of 21 pro fights.