UFC Vegas 8: Smith vs Rakic Main Card Betting Preview, Odds & Picks

On Saturday, August 29^th, the UFC will return to action with UFC Vegas 8: Smith vs Rakic, also known as UFC Fight Night 175, and UFC on ESPN+ 33.

The main card for this UFC event features some explosive bouts including the main attraction of the night as Anthony Smith takes on Aleksandar Rakic in a Top 10 light heavyweight showdown. The co-main event is a Top 15 welterweight clash between Robbie Lawler and Neil Magny.

The five bout main card also features a women’s fight and a heated rematch between Magomed Ankalaev vs Ion Cutelaba. UFC Vegas 8 is set to begin at 9PM ET on ESPN+. Prior to the main card, there’s a six fight preliminary card loaded with action packed contests that begins at 6PM ET.

UFC betting sites have released their odds for this updated main card. Let’s step inside the betting octagon to examine these odds, look for any betting value, and TKO/KO these predictions.

This Saturday 👀 #UFCVegas8 pic.twitter.com/sAAFCvzjO7

— Dailyufc5 (@Dailyufc5) August 25, 2020

Magomed Ankalayev vs Ion Cutelaba

• Magomed Ankalayev (-335)
• Ion Cutelaba (+275)
• Over (-130)/Under (+110) 1.5 rounds

This rematch seems to be cursed. In fact, the drama surrounding this fight has been crazy since it first happened in February. If you remember, the bout ended in controversy as the ref waived it off because he thought Ion Cutelaba was hurt, yet “The Hulk” was just playing possum according to his team.

Cutelaba jumped up quickly to protest the ref and show that he wasn’t hurt, but to no avail. He then asked for the result to be overturned and that was unsuccessful as well. However, the UFC decided to make an immediate rematch.

Yet, the rematch has seen plenty of hurdles. It was going to be booked for UFC 249, but that was cancelled due to health reasons. Then the fight was pushed back to UFC 252, but it had to be postponed again because Cutelaba tested positive.

Now, we can finally get some resolution to a crazy feud that has seen more twists and turns than the latest hit Netflix show The Money Heist.

Cutelaba is 4-4 inside the octagon if you count the controversial loss in their first fight. He has a strong grappling background and brute strength, which is how he earned the nickname “The Hulk.”

14 of his 15 pro wins have come via stoppage with 12 by way of TKO/KO. Cutelaba 1-1 when going the distance. Three of his four UFC wins have come via TKO/KO.

Rewind the tapes!

🇷🇺 @AnkalaevM vs 🇲🇩 @ICutelaba

Part two goes down Saturday night. #UFCVegas8 pic.twitter.com/g0d6v7pSfr

— UFC (@ufc) August 25, 2020

Magomed Ankalaev has moved up to 13^th in the light heavyweight division and has won four fights in a row including the controversial TKO victory over Cutelaba. He did lose his UFC debut against the 15^th ranked light heavyweight Paul Craig in March 2018.

Ankalaev is a solid striker from a distance with knockout power. Eight of his 13 pro wins have come via TKO/KO. He’s 5-0 when going to the scorecards.

The Over/Under is set at 1.5 rounds, but I believe this contest will go Over and I don’t see a 1^st round stoppage in this rematch like in the first bout.

I do believe Ankalaev is a better overall MMA fighter than Cutelaba who is more of a brawler than a technician inside the octagon. Magomed has better striking skills and should be able to pick apart Cutelaba for the duration of this contest.

With that said, I also don’t see this fight going the full three rounds (-285). Instead, I believe Ankalaev will get the TKO in the late-second or early third (-285).

I really like the betting value with the Over 1.5 rounds (-130). Other than Ion’s “rope a dope” that made the ref look like a dope in the first fight, Cutelaba has never been stopped in Under 1.5 rounds.

Alexa Grasso vs Ji Yeon Kim

• Alexa Grasso (-320)
• Ji Yeon Kim (+260)
• Over (-400)/Under (+325) 2.5 rounds

This fight is a battle of two Top 15 ranked women’s flyweight, but has one of the largest disparities in betting odds for the entire card.

The 13^th ranked Ji Yeon Kim might be one position higher in the rankings than Grasso, but she finds herself listed as a large underdog heading into this contest. Kim is 3-2 inside the octagon, but won her last contest via 2^nd round KO over Nadia Kassem last October.

This will be Kim’s first fight of 2020. Five of her nine pro wins have come via stoppage with three by way of submission. She’s 4-2-2 when going the distance.

The 14^th ranked Alexa Grasso is 3-3 inside the octagon, but hasn’t fought in 11 months where she lost via majority decision to Carla Esparza. All four of her stoppage victories have come via TKO/KO. Grasso is 7-2 when going the distance.

Kim will have at least five inches in reach and two inches in height advantage over Grasso. Yet, Kim seems to lack success against higher caliber fighters, whereas Grasso has fared well.

I really don’t see either fighter scoring a stoppage victory in this contest. So, take the Over 2.5 rounds (-400) at when betting on this UFC event because this bout will go the full distance (-365).

Eight of Kim’s 13 pro fights have gone the distance, while Grasso has gone the full three rounds in nine of her 14 pro fights. So, it’s easy to see why this bout will go to the scorecards.

With that in mind, I like Grasso’s aggressiveness to be the difference in this contest. Her clinch and smothering style should go a long way in scoring points with the judges and earn her the unanimous decision victory.

Ricardo Lamas vs Bill Algeo

• Ricardo Lamas (-290)
• Bill Algeo (+245)
• Over (+100)/Under (-120) 2.5 rounds

This featherweight bout was originally scheduled for Ricardo Lamas to take on Ryan Hall. Unfortunately, Hall was forced out of the event due to an injury. Bill Algeo will make his UFC debut on less than a week’s notice.

Algeo is 5-1 in his last six fights with the lone loss over that stretch coming via unanimous decision on DWCS 14 months ago. He last competed on August 13^th for CFFC and won via unanimous decision. Nine of his 13 pro wins have come via stoppage with six by way of submission. He’s 4-2 when going the distance.

Lamas enters this contest needing a win badly. He dropped his last fight 14 months ago against Calvin Kattar via 1^st round TKO and is 1-3 in his last four bouts. Lamas used to be a title contender in the featherweight division, but has gone 3-3 since a bout against Max Holloway four years ago.

11 of his 19 pro wins have come via stoppage with six victories by way of TKO/KO. He’s 8-3 when going the distance.

Lamas commented on the craziness of Hall’s departure and not knowing if he would still be able to compete this weekend:

“When something like that happens, it took me about 12 hours to process it, sink it in, and kind of re-adjust my mindset. But once I did that, I was good, and I just kept training until I they came back and said Bill Algeo took the fight. So thank you to him for taking it on short notice during these crazy times.”

The UFC veteran knows that Algeo is looking to make a big impact in his UFC debut and use Lamas as a stepping stone to announce his arrival. Lamas also recognizes he needs to win this fight and wants to prove to Algeo that there’s “levels to this game.”

I think Algeo is over his head in this contest. He’s never fought anyone to the level of Lamas and I just don’t see how he’s going to get the win on Saturday. Hopefully, he puts on a good enough show to give him another shot inside the octagon.

I’m taking Lamas to win this fight Under 2.5 rounds (-120) and via submission. Although Lamas is giving up a few inches in height and reach to Algeo, his experience will be the deciding factor in this contest.

Robbie Lawler vs Neil Magny

• Robbie Lawler (+195)
• Neil Magny (-235)
• Over (-245)/Under (+205) 2.5 rounds

This will be Lawler’s first fight in a year since he lost via unanimous decision to Colby Covington. Lawler is ranked 13^th in the division, but enters on a three fight skid and has dropped four of his last five bouts. “Ruthless” is the last of a dying breed of MMA fighters and his best days are long behind him.

Lawler took this fight on a few weeks’ notice after not having anything previously lined up. Yet, he’s focused on competing, getting back inside the octagon, and fighting his “ruthless” style:

“It is what it is. I’m going to fight. I haven’t fought for a while, so it’s nice to get back in there. I always fight a certain way, and that’s always to try to get in the guy’s face and create a fight and get into a fight. That’s what this sport is about, I believe. Obviously guys are technical and you try to use that technique, but when push comes to shove, you try to do some damage in there.”

Ruthless.

The Taker of Souls.

There is only one @Ruthless_RL | LIVE this Saturday on #ESPNPlus pic.twitter.com/Vjz6qkkVuI

— UFC (@ufc) August 27, 2020

20 of his 28 pro wins have come via TKO/KO. He’s 7-6 when going the distance. Lawler’s last win came against Donald Cerrone three years ago via unanimous decision. His last TKO/KO came against Rory MacDonald in July 2015 at UFC 189 after people thought his best days were over with.

Neil Magny has fought twice in 2020 and showed that he has overcome the brutal KO loss to Santiago Ponzinibbio nearly two years ago. Magny has won both of his fights this year via unanimous decision and has also climbed up to 14^th in the welterweight division.

Magny was originally set to face Geoff Neal, but that matchup was scrapped. Magny admits that the change of opponents threw him off at first, but he realizes the significant opportunity that a bout against Lawler provides:

“If I go out there and put on a great performance against him, then I’m fighting guys in the top 10 and moving closer to that title shot. I’m not going to be as naive and say I beat Robbie Lawler on Saturday and I’m getting a title shot on Monday. I know there’s some work to be done as far as working my way through ranks and that kind of thing, but a win over Robbie Lawler definitely propels me in the right direction.”

I do believe Magny will get the win and boost in the standings. From there, he could end up with a Top 10 welterweight clash by the end of 2020 as long as he doesn’t suffer any injuries in this weekend’s fight.

Magny has the height and reach advantage along with being a more polished striker. He will throw a high volume and land some takedowns as well. Lawler would need to land a knockout shot to win this bout and I don’t see that happening. Plus, Lawler’s gas tank isn’t what it used to be.

I expect this fight to go over 2.5 rounds (-245) and go the full distance (-215). I don’t believe Magny has the power to knockout Lawler on Saturday. Three of Lawler’s last four fights have gone to a decision, Magny has gone the distance in 14 of his 30 pro fights with a 13-1 record in those bouts.

Anthony Smith vs Aleksandar Rakic

• Anthony Smith (+235)
• Aleksandar Rakic (-275)
• Over (-165)/Under (+145) 1.5 rounds

The main event of the night is a Top 9 light heavyweight matchup between the 5^th ranked Anthony Smith and the 9^th ranked Aleksandar Rakic.

Smith is a large underdog in this bout. When we last saw him, he was getting pummeled by Glover Teixeira in May. Smith lost via TKO in the 5^th round. The reality was that Smith should not have even finished the 3^rd round let alone come out for the 4^th or 5^th rounds. His corner did not protect him.

Smith is a former light heavyweight title contender, but has lost two of his last three bouts. Yet, Smith acknowledges that he’s never lost two fights in a row inside the UFC and that he’s looking to get back on track this weekend:

“It’s really about me, man. I tend to always perform better when I am coming off a loss. I’ve never lost two in a row in the UFC before. I want to get in there, and I want to pick back up (where I left off).”

30 of his 33 pro wins have come via stoppage with 18 victories by way of TKO/KO. He’s just 2-2 when going the distance.

Rakic had a 12 fight winning streak snapped last December when he lost via split decision to Volkan Oezdemir. That’s also the last time he’s stepped into the octagon. Rakic is 4-1 in the UFC and could jump into the Top 5 of the division with a win over Smith this weekend:

“I need and I will make a statement on Saturday that the world knows who Aleksandar Rakic is. And after I beat Anthony, I’m going to be right in the top five. Maybe a potential title contender. We’re going to see what happens.”

Nine of Rakic’s 12 pro wins have come via TKO/KO with the most devastating one being a head kick against Jimi Manuwa 14 months ago. Some pundits say that it’s the most devastating knockout in the history of UFC’s light heavyweight division.

As for this Saturday’s fight, I have legitimate concerns about Anthony Smith. The beating he took in his last fight should’ve put him on the shelf longer. If he would’ve taken a few more months for recovery and training, I would’ve liked his chances more then.

But, since Smith is returning to the octagon three months after his loss to Teixeira, I am going with Rakic to win. I think Smith will fade late in the fight again. I also expect Rakic’s Muay Thai to eventually breakdown Smith.

Smith’s best chance of winning is to get this fight to the mat and finding a submission. Unfortunately, I don’t see that happening. Instead, I believe Rakic will find the TKO/KO win somewhere in the middle stages of this contest.

Combined, these two men have gone the distance in seven of 62 pro fights. It’s safe to say that someone is getting knocked out on Saturday.