UFC Vegas 8: Smith vs Rakic Prelim Card Betting Preview, Odds & Picks

On Saturday, August 29^th, the UFC returns to action at its Apex Center for UFC Vegas 8 also known as UFC Fight Night 175, UFC on ESPN 16, and UFC on ESPN+ 33 depending on which media outlet you look at.

The main event of this UFC show is a light heavyweight battle between Anthony Smith and Aleksandar Rakic. Prior to the main card, we have a six fight preliminary card that begins at 6PM ET on ESPN+ and features a middleweight showdown between Maki Pitolo and Impa Kasanganay.

Let’s step inside the betting octagon to examine the latest UFC Vegas 8 betting odds and props from the best UFC betting sites, identify any potential betting value or upsets, and tap out these predictions.

Chikadze OUT, Croom IN. Here’s this weekend’s updated #UFCVegas8 card. pic.twitter.com/EUFUO7Gbxu

— MMA Form Guide (@MMAFormGuide) August 26, 2020

Christian Aguilera vs Sean Brady

• Christian Aguilera (+325)
• Sean Brady (-400)
• Over (-140)/Under (+120) 2.5 rounds

The opening bout of the night has the biggest disparity in betting odds as Christian Aguilera is the largest underdog while the unbeaten Sean Brady is the largest betting favorite for the entire UFC Las Vegas event.

Christian Aguilera made his UFC debut on short notice in June and upset Anthony Ivy in the first minute of their fight via TKO. He’s on a three fight winning streak and is looking to pull off an even bigger upset this weekend. 11 of his 14 pro wins have come via TKO/KO. He’s 3-2 when going the distance in a fight.

Brady carries with him a 2-0 record inside the octagon having last fought in February and winning via unanimous decision over Ismail Naurdiev. Both UFC fights have gone the full three rounds for Brady. Five of his 12 pro wins have come via stoppage. He’s 7-0 when going the distance.

Brady, the former CFFC welterweight champ, looks like he has advantages in every area of this fight except maybe overall power. I really don’t see a path to victory for Aguilera unless he catches Brady making a big mistake.

This fight should go the distance (-125) considering nearly 60% of Brady’s fights have gone the full three rounds including both of his UFC contests, so take the over. I think Aguilera can survive this fight, but he will lose via unanimous decision.

Emily Whitmire vs Polyana Viana

• Emily Whitmire (-120)
• Polyana Viana (+100)
• Over (-185)/Under (+160) 2.5 rounds

In the first of three women’s fights on the night, we have a very close matchup on paper and with online sports betting sites as Emily Whitmire takes on Polyana Viana. They were supposed to fight in March, but Whitmire missed weight and the fight was off.

Whitmire is the slight favorite in this contest despite having the inferior overall record. She hasn’t fought in 14 months where she lost via second round submission to Amanda Ribas. Whitmire is 2-2 inside the octagon. Three of her four pro wins have come via decision.

Polyana Viana is on a three fight losing streak and hasn’t fought in a year, which her last bout was a submission loss to Veronica Macedo.  She’s also just 1-3 inside the octagon.

All 10 of her pro wins have come via stoppage with six by way of submission. All, but one of these stoppages have come in the 1^st round.

This fight really offers some betting value with not only the moneylines, but with the Over/Under and prop bets as well.

In a combined 21 pro fights, these two have gone the distance in just six of them. That’s 15 contests that ended inside the distance. I expect this bout to end inside the distance (+105) as well. Additionally, I see this fight going Under 2.5 rounds (+160).

I believe this bout will end up on the mat where both women prefer to fight. However, that will definitely give the advantage to Viana who has 6 submission wins and just one submission loss. Whitmire has just one submission win and has tapped out three times.

I see Viana ending her three fight losing streak by forcing Whitmire to tap out before the second round has completed. This fight shouldn’t see the third round.

Alex Caceres vs Kevin Croom

• Alex Caceres (-195)
• Kevin Croom (+170)
• Over/Under (NA)

This contest was originally scheduled to be Alex Caceres taking on Giga Chikadez, but the latter was forced out of the event for undisclosed reasons. Kevin Croom is taking the fight on less than one week’s notice.

Croom is a veteran of the sport, just like Caceres, but has more professional fights than his opponent. Croom has competed in other top promotions like Bellator, LFA and Titan FC. He’s won three straight contests, which have earned him this UFC opportunity.

Croom last fought on August 12^th, for FAC and won via unanimous decision in a five round contest. Typically, fighters don’t take this quick of a turnaround after going the full distance especially when it’s five rounds.

16 of his 21 pro wins have come via stoppage with 10 by way of submission. He’s 5-4 when going the distance.

Alex “Bruce Leroy” Caceres is a UFC mainstay with 21 fights for the promotion. It’s amazing how he continues to stick with the promotion considering he is barely above .500. But, Caceres has become a low-level gatekeeper, which is a role that he has fully embraced.

Caceres has won two straight fights including an upset victory over Chase Hooper two months ago. He’s 3-1 in his last four bouts. “Bruce Leroy” made us all look silly at UFC 250 when he beat Hooper. With that said, I’m not going to let him make me look silly two times in a row.

I believe Caceres is the better overall fighter and should win this contest on Saturday. The only question is whether it will be via stoppage or via decision. Since his last three wins have all come via decision, I’m taking Caceres to defeat Croom via unanimous decision this weekend.

Zak Cummings vs Alessio Di Chirico

• Zak Cummings (-105)
• Alessio Di Chirico (-115)
• Over (-235)/Under (+195) 2.5 rounds

Cummings is the slight underdog in this middleweight contest where he’s 2-1 since coming up from welterweight. Cummings lost his last fight 11 months ago via unanimous decision to Omari Akhmedov. He’s 4-2 in his last six contests and 8-4 overall inside the octagon.

17 of his 23 pro wins have come via stoppage with 12 by way of submission. Cummings is 6-5 when going to a decision.

Alessio Di Chirico has dropped two straight fights and is now 3-4 inside the octagon. He last competed 11 months ago and lost via unanimous decision to Makhmud Muradov. His last win came 25 months ago when he defeated Julian Marquez via split decision.

Nine of his 12 pro wins have come via stoppage with five by way of TKO/KO. Di Chirico is 3-3 when going the distance.

“Scusi!” 😅

🇮🇹 @ManzoDiChirico went deep in the Family Guy references for this post-fight interview! #UFCVegas8 pic.twitter.com/YqMpbRk9be

— UFC (@ufc) August 26, 2020

To me, Cummings is the better overall fighter between the two. He has heavier hands, is the better grappler, and has better submission skills than Di Chirico.

I believe Cummings will win this fight whether it stays upright or goes down to the mat. His best chance at finishing the fight inside the distance is on the mat. However, this bout has the makings of a full three round affair (-210). So, take the Over 2.5 rounds (-235) as well.

Cummings has gone to a decision in three of his last four fights and Di Chirico has seen the judges in his last two bouts. I see Cummings winning this bout via unanimous decision (+170) due to a dominating ground performance.

Mallory Martin vs Hannah Cifers

• Mallory Martin (-325)
• Hannah Cifers (+265)
• Over (-270)/Under (+230) 2.5 rounds

Hannah Cifers comes into this contest as a large underdog and having lost three straight fights. She last competed in June and lost via 1^st round submission to Mariya Agapova. All three losses on this streak have come via stoppage. Five of her six pro losses have come via stoppage.

When she performs well, Cifers’ victories are evenly split between five TKO/KO wins and five decisions. She’s 5-1 when going the distance.

Mallory Martin is 5-1 in her last six fights, but she did lose her UFC debut last December to Virna Jandiroba via 2^nd round submission. Three of her six wins have come via stoppage. Martin is 3-2 when going the distance.

Cifers’ best days are behind her and I believe she’s outmatched in this contest. Not only will Martin hang in a striking battle, but she will dominate on the mat. It’s just a matter of time before Martin gets Cifers down onto the mat and finishes this fight.

The only question is whether or not Martin wins by submission or ground and pound. Three of Cifers’ six pro losses have come via submission and two via TKO/KO.

MMA betting sites favor Martin’s odds of winning via submission (+375) over winning via TKO/KO (+590). I’m taking the tap out win for Mallory.

Maki Pitolo vs Impa Kasanganay

• Maki Pitolo (+105)
• Impa Kasanganay (-125)
• Over (-150)/Under (+130) 2.5 rounds

The main bout for the preliminary card is a battle of two middleweights as Maki Pitolo looks to get back into the win column, while Impa Kasanganay looks to remain unbeaten.

Pitolo earned a shot in the UFC with a 1^st round TKO win on DWCS 13 months ago. Unfortunately, he’s gone 1-2 inside the octagon since then, with a 1^st round submission loss to Darren Stewart three weeks ago.

Pitolo took a quick turnaround to wash the bad taste out of his mouth. He’s 3-2 in his last five fights. 10 of his 13 pro wins have come via stoppage with seven by way of TKO/KO. Pitolo is 3-1 when going the distance.

Coconut BOMBS! 🥥💣 Maki Pitolo lived up to his nickname on #DWCS.

👊: @Coconut_Bombz – Saturday on ESPN+

📺: DWCS – Tonight on #ESPNPlus pic.twitter.com/uYpp866JhB

— UFC (@ufc) August 25, 2020

Impa Kasanganay is making his official UFC debut and is a rising middleweight prospect. He had two DWCS fights over the last year and won both via unanimous decisions. Impa last fought on August 11^th, and will also have a quick turnaround like Pitolo. Five of his seven pro wins have come via decision.

Impa Kasanganay has never faced someone the caliber of Pitolo before. And, I think he’s going to have a tough time dealing with Pitolo’s boxing skills. But, let me say this, if Pitolo comes into this bout and loses because of another subpar performance, I am never picking him again.

With that said, I am taking the upset as I see Pitolo winning the fight via decision due to his volume of striking and the amount of power punches he lands. He got the nickname “Coconut Bombz” for a reason, now we just need to see him finally live up to that moniker in the UFC.