Updated Odds to Win the 2021 NBA MVP: Is Steph Curry a Legitimate Sleeper?

The race for the 2020-21 NBA MVP award is shaping up to be a fascinating one. Giannis Antetokounmpo is trying to become the first player since Wilt Chamberlain to win the award three years in a row. LeBron James is trying to join Bill Russell and Michael Jordan in the five-time winners club. Stephen Curry, meanwhile, is looking to win his third career MVP trophy, which would put the Warriors’ sharpshooter in rarefied air of his own.

The list of contenders doesn’t end there, of course. Joel Embiid, Nikola Jokic, Kawhi Leonard, Kevin Durant, and Damian Lillard are all making cases of their own early in the campaign. Here’s an updated look at the latest NBA MVP odds from online sportsbooks that offer NBA betting as we head toward the middle of February.

LeBron James (+225)

LeBron James said after last season that he thought he should’ve won the award last year. James led the Lakers to their first championship in a decade last season. Despite an incredibly short offseason, the King hasn’t missed a beat to begin the new campaign.

The 36-year-old has played in all 26 of the Lakers’ games so far this term. All he’s done is average 25.5 points, 7.9 rebounds, and 7.9 assists per game. His assist numbers are down a bit after he set a career-high in that department a year ago (10.2), but he’s also shooting a stellar 39.4 percent from three-point range. His early-season success has made him the presumptive MVP favorite at NBA betting sites around the industry.

Anthony Davis has been hampered by injuries, which has forced James to take on a heavier workload. Despite all of the factors working against the future Hall-of-Famer, LeBron still has the Lakers near the top of the Western Conference at 20-6. LA is a team with some question marks, but there’s simply no denying James’ MVP candidacy.

It’s also worth noting that LeBron hasn’t won a regular-season MVP award since 2013, which is an incredibly long drought for a guy many still consider to be the best player in the league. The current +225 odds you can get on LeBron to win MVP this year might be too good to ignore. There is no shortage of competition, but we know he’s gunning for that trophy.

Joel Embiid (+400)

As of this writing, the Philadelphia 76ers (18-8) are the proud owners of the best record in the Eastern Conference. Philly has been one of the better teams in the East over the past handful of years, but the team hasn’t quite lived up to expectations. That seems to be changing this season, thanks in no small part to the phenomenal play of Joel Embiid.

Through 21 games, Embiid has posted averages of 29.4 points, 10.9 rebounds, 2.9 assists, and better than a block per game. The big man is shooting a career-best 54.5 percent from the floor and nearly 39 percent from downtown, too. Embiid has improved his shot selection early in the year, which helps explain his improved efficiency.

He’s doing all of that damage offensively while serving as the anchor for a Philly defense that ranks top-five in D-rating. Embiid is a player that has never garnered a ton of MVP buzz in the past, but he’ll earn some votes if the Sixers wind up finishing at or near the top of the conference this season. He has clearly been the driving force behind the 76ers’ early-season hot streak.

For Embiid, it’s really just a matter of staying healthy and keeping it going. We’ve seen his performance wane as previous seasons have progressed, so he will have to show that he has the endurance to play at this high level throughout the full campaign if he wants to stake his claim to the MVP trophy. While his resume speaks for itself, it’s hard to love his current +400 odds with so much quality competition out there.

Nikola Jokic (+450)

As of now, Nikola Jokic ranks fourth in the league in assists per game. The Nuggets’ lumbering seven-foot center is dishing out 8.6 dimes on a nightly basis to go alongside averages of 26.9 points and 11.3 rebounds. The Joker is averaging career-highs across all three categories while also shooting 40 percent from deep. You can pretty easily argue that Jokic has been the NBA’s best player this season, which is saying something.

While he has been outstanding, the Nuggets haven’t quite lived up to expectations. Denver has improved following a rocky start to the campaign, but they’re still only seventh in the Western Conference at 13-11. The Nuggets have been a contender for the top seed in the West over the past few years, and they’ll have to get back there again if Jokic is to make a real run at the award.

I wouldn’t mind a flier on Jokic at +450 considering how well he has played. An MVP is almost surely in his future. It’s more a matter of “when,” not “if.”

Luka Doncic (+1000)

Luka Doncic began the season as the betting favorite to win MVP, but it’s been all downhill from there. Doncic has still put up solid individual numbers, with averages of 27.8 points, 9.3 assists, and 8.7 rebounds per game. The problem is that the 21-year-old hasn’t shown much tangible improvement from last season.

In fact, Luka’s questionable three-point marksmanship has taken a step back. Doncic is shooting just 30.9 percent from long range, down from 31.6 percent a year ago. He admitted that he came to training camp out of shape, and his early-season performance lacked compared to expectations.

The Mavericks have also been pretty disastrous. Dallas has dealt with no shortage of injuries, but Luka has been healthy throughout. Regardless, the Mavs are just 12-14 and currently on the outside looking in at the Western Conference playoff picture. Just one MVP in the history of the NBA has come from a team that missed the playoffs. That was Kareem Abdul-Jabbar in the mid-70s.

The Mavs are good bets to figure it out and sneak into a postseason spot, but it’s far from a certainty with the Western Conference being as loaded as it is.

The current +1000 odds you’ll get on Luka are far more favorable than the odds you got at the beginning of the season, but his claim to the award is fading rapidly.

Kevin Durant (+1000)

Kevin Durant has played quite well in his first season after rupturing his Achilles. In fact, if you didn’t know he’d suffered the injury, you wouldn’t be able to tell that he’s a different player at all. Durant is averaging 29.5 points per game on the same excellent efficiency we’ve come to expect over the years.

The problem with Durant’s MVP candidacy is twofold. For one, we’ll have to see how many games he ultimately plays. So far, he has appeared in 18 of the Nets’ 27 games. If he misses many more, his MVP chances may go out the window.

KD playing like an MVP. How? https://t.co/AFv9Fxxgwg

— Tom Haberstroh (@tomhaberstroh) February 12, 2021

It’s also worth wondering whether playing alongside a pair of All-Stars will hurt his chances. The Nets should be one of the best teams in the conference, but “super teams” don’t typically get much benefit of the doubt from MVP voters. The addition of James Harden presumably hurts the chances of Durant or Kyrie Irving to win the award any time soon.

KD’s return from injury is a great story, but that alone won’t earn him enough sympathy from voters. Harden, Irving, and Durant will likely cannibalize each other’s MVP case, which makes Durant a pretty easy option to fade at the current +1000 odds.

Giannis Antetokounmpo (+1200)

The Bucks have finished with the best record in the NBA in each of the last two seasons, but Giannis Antetokounmpo’s honeymoon phase is over. Voters will no longer be all that impressed if Milwaukee posts the best record in the league again. It all comes down to whether the Bucks can win in the postseason.

As mentioned previously, we don’t see back-to-back-to-back MVPs in this league very often. It’s also worth noting that Antetokounmpo’s numbers are down across the board so far in 2020-21. The Greek Freak has seen his scoring average, rebounding average, assist average, and three-point percentage all decline from where they were a season ago.

Giannis may have opened the season as Luka’s biggest threat for MVP, but both players have seen their chances dwindle as the season has progressed. I bet we’ll get a first-time winner before Antetokounmpo wins MVP for a third straight year, so I’d pass on Giannis at +1200.

Stephen Curry (+1400)

Now we’re talkin’. The Warriors looked to be headed for another lost season after Klay Thompson suffered another season-ending injury before it even began, but Steph Curry is trying to drag Golden State back to the promised land. The Dubs won’t be winning a title this season, but a playoff appearance should be enough to give Curry some MVP momentum.

Curry has won this award twice in the past, but he hasn’t done so since 2016. As of this writing, Curry has the Warriors at 14-12 on the season and eighth in the West. This in spite of a completely different roster with a ton of injury issues. Through it all, Curry is averaging 30 points, 5.9 assists, and 5.5 rebounds while shooting nearly 44 percent from downtown.

Curry erupted for 40 points with 10 made threes in Golden State’s victory over Orlando on Thursday. When asked whether he thinks he should be in the MVP conversation, Curry replied,

“The game speaks for itself. Those two [MVP] years is the exact same kind of conversation. Obviously, that’s an amazing accomplishment, and being in that conversation with all that we’ve been through these last two years, that means something. Those narratives make themselves as you go throughout the season, and my job is obviously just be at the level that I expect to be, and usually that means you’re at the top at the end of the season.”

Will a playoff berth be enough to get Curry over the top? We’ll see. Regardless, what he’s doing at the age of 32 with the talent around him is impressive. Curry is as good as he’s ever been, and that alone makes him a viable option here at +1400. Steph’s odds will only improve from here, so the value speaks for itself.

Damian Lillard (+2500)

Damian Lillard is trying to do in Portland what Curry is doing in San Francisco. Through 23 games, Lillard is averaging 29.4 points and better than 7 assists per game while shooting about 39 percent from three-point range. The Trail Blazers are without CJ McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic indefinitely, so it’s on Dame to keep Portland’s playoff chances afloat.

The Blazers are fifth in the West at 14-10 despite the injuries. Lillard hasn’t been fully healthy himself, but he has shown in the past that he’s capable of dragging his team across the finish line. Look no further than last summer, when Lillard won “Bubble MVP” for helping the Blazers to an unlikely postseason appearance.

Unfortunately for Lillard, the sheer amount of competition here will likely kill his MVP hopes. Can Dame really win the award over guys like LeBron, Jokic, or Embiid if those other teams wind up higher in the standings? Lillard’s case is similar to Curry’s, but Curry’s individual numbers have been slightly better. As of now, I’d give Steph the edge over Dame, which makes Lillard a risky option down at +2500.

Kawhi Leonard (+4000)

The Lakers generate most of the headlines, but don’t sleep on the Clippers. LA’s other team is off to a solid 18-8 start thanks in large part to the quiet greatness of Kawhi Leonard. The Clips’ superstar is averaging 26.5 points, 5.9 rebounds, and 5.1 assists in his second season with the team.

The issue with Kawhi’s MVP case is that Paul George has done plenty of the heavy lifting himself. PG-13 is averaging better than 24 points of his own on even better efficiency than Leonard. As is the case in Brooklyn, you just get the sense that the two stars with the Clippers share enough of the workload to eat into each other’s MVP claim.

The +4000 odds on Kawhi are alluring, but I think the only way he wins it is if the Clippers ultimately finish as the top seed in the West. George may also have to miss significant time due to injury for Kawhi to break through. A lot has to go right, which makes Leonard a tough bet to trust at +4000.