USC vs Gonzaga Elite Eight Prediction

Houston and Baylor punched their respective tickets to the Final Four on Monday night. Tonight, four more teams will look to do the same thing. Gonzaga, fresh off of an easy win over Creighton in the Sweet Sixteen, will look to get to the Final Four for the second time in the last four years.

Moneyline Betting Odds

• Gonzaga (-455)
• USC (+365)

Spread Betting Odds

• Gonzaga -8.5 (-115)
• USC +8.5 (-105)

Over/Under Betting Odds

• Over 153 (-110)
• Under 153 (-110)

Mark Few’s team entered the NCAA Tournament as odds-on favorites, and nothing we’ve seen through the team’s first three games has changed that status. Gonzaga has won all three of their outings by double-digits, and the Bulldogs are sizable 8.5-point favorites tonight against Southern Cal.

Getting past USC won’t be easy, of course. The Trojans are one of the few teams in the country with enough size of their own to combat Gonzaga’s interior difference-makers, and USC has also won its three first games by double-digits. In fact, the 14-point margin in the Trojans’ last game against Oregon has been their closest tournament game thus far.

USC Thinking Upset

While Evan Mobley has emerged as the Trojans’ go-to guy on offense this season, the freshman sensation does have plenty of help. Seniors Tahj Eaddy (20 points) and Isaiah White (22 points) picked up the slack in a big way against Oregon in the Sweet Sixteen, while Mobley contributed just 10 points of his own.

Mobley is averaging 16.5 points, 8.8 rebounds, and 2.3 assists per game so far this season. The fact that USC was able to easily get past Oregon despite a down game from Mobley is a sign that this team needs to be taken seriously as a threat to the Zags’ unbeaten record.

Tahj Eaddy with the euro 👀

USC up big at the half pic.twitter.com/LSoe32VZAK

— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) March 29, 2021

The seven-footer will have his hands full tonight against Drew Timme, who has been one of the best all-around big men in the nation this season for Gonzaga. Mobley has also averaged three blocks per game this season, so this isn’t a breezy matchup for Timme by any means. It should be fascinating to watch Timme’s excellent footwork go up against Mobley’s incredible athleticism in this one.

USC is 19-13 against the spread so far this season. While Andy Enfield’s squad failed to win the Pac-12 regular-season or conference titles, the Trojans are certainly peaking at the right time. USC has managed to cover in each of their three tournament games to this point, including their 85-51 demolition of Kansas in the round of 32 that is still one of the most impressive games we’ve seen from any team since the tourney began.

Southern Cal has risen all the way to No. 6 in the latest KenPom rankings. The Trojans are averaging a robust 115.9 points per 100 possessions (14th in the nation), while allowing just 87.9 points per 100 possessions. Gonzaga can shoot over the top of the Trojans’ defense, but the fact that the Bulldogs do so much of their damage in the paint makes this a rough matchup for the Zags.

Can Gonzaga Keep It Going?

Gonzaga hasn’t really broken a sweat through their first three contests against Norfolk State, Oklahoma, and Creighton. The Sooners did give Gonzaga a run early in the second half of their round of 32 clash, but the Zags have still won every game by at least 16 points thus far.

That’s impressive, especially considering their own freshman phenom has struggled a bit. Jalen Suggs, who will be one of the top picks in the upcoming NBA draft, has failed to crack 10 points in two of the three games thus far. Suggs was limited to just nine points on 3-for-7 shooting in the Sweet Sixteen by Creighton.

Another W for the Zags ✔️

Gonzaga advances to the Sweet 16 behind a 30-point performance from Drew Timme. pic.twitter.com/8b3W4LgTN4

— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) March 22, 2021

If Mobley is going to keep Timme and Corey Kispert from getting easy buckets, it’ll be important for Suggs to get going offensively from the perimeter. The Minnesota native is averaging about 14 points per game along with 5.3 rebounds and 4.4 assists this season as Gonzaga’s primary creator on offense. Gonzaga hasn’t needed Suggs to get going in order to get to this point, but it will be difficult for this team to reach its ultimate goal if the star guard doesn’t round into form.

Timme has been the star, averaging 20.6 points, 8.3 rebounds, and about four assists per game in the tourney. The Zags are currently ranked first in the most recent KenPom rankings, thanks in large part to stellar play on both ends of the floor. Gonzaga is the top offense in the country (126.4 points per 100 possessions), while ranking seventh in defense (88.6 points per 100 possessions).

What’s the Best Bet?

This will clearly be Gonzaga’s most difficult test to date. The Bulldogs are certainly the best team in the country despite playing in a weak West Coast Conference, and this team is still the most likely team left in the field to win it all this season.

However, I’m having a hard time imagining Gonzaga winning this one easily. USC has been right there with Gonzaga as the most impressive teams in the entire tournament, and the Trojans’ excellent interior defense makes this a tough matchup for the Zags. I still like Gonzaga to ultimately win this game and advance, but I also like the value in the Trojans to keep it competitive. Take USC to stay within the 8.5-point margin in this one.