What Does the 17-Game NFL Season Mean for Futures Betting?

It’s official. We are now looking at a 17-game NFL season, and it has forever changed the futures betting landscape—to an extent. Let’s not get too excited. Now that we’ve got a 17-game slate, we should see a reduction in one preseason game and the addition of one interconference opponent.

For example, the Arizona Cardinals will play the Cleveland Browns since the NFC West squares off against the AFC North in that 17th game. And the Cardinals and Browns each finished third in their respective division in 2020.

Today, we’re looking at what the new 17-game NFL Season means for futures betting for the foreseeable future. It’s always possible the NFL season can expand to 18 games in the future. But for now, let’s focus on the present.

17-Game Season Means Higher Over/Unders for Talented Teams

Expect each team’s over/under to increase by a game. For example, if the Cleveland Browns had a 7.5-game over/under in 2020, that same over/under would be an 8.5-game over/under for 2021. Let’s say the Browns come in with a 10.5 over/under for 2021. That same over/under would be 9.5 for 2020.

As you can guess, teams that aren’t so talented would see a similar over/under. Take the New York Jets. The Jets’ over/under, if in a 16-game slate is set at 5.5 games, odds are, it will remain the same for a 17-game season.

Should this disrupt your betting strategy? Yes and no.

Let’s go back to the Cardinals versus the Browns example shown in the intro. And let’s say that you like the Cardinals over the Browns.

However, since both the Cardinals and the Browns figure to be among the league’s better teams, odds are you’ll give more thought to the Cardinals’ increased over/under than the Browns’.

But if you think the Browns would prevail over the Cardinals in that 17th game, then you’ll give the Browns more thought in the over/under.

Don’t Expect Early-Season Rust With the 17-Game Season

NFLPA President JC Tretter brought up a few good points regarding the NFL’s lack of offseason because of the world health crisis in 2020. He stated that the quality of play remained the same, penalties were at an all-time low, and scoring was at an all-time high.

Also, teams with new coaches and new systems didn’t lag. In fact, the worst teams in football each had veteran systems.

Now, perhaps the NFL instructed its officials to not call ticky-tacky penalties, which explained higher scoring. Also, rules these days favor the offense more and more, which would further justify increased scoring.

And you can also argue it took several teams with new coaches and systems more than a few weeks to gel with just one team—the Washington Football Team—winning the division and just one other team— the Cleveland Browns—making the playoffs.

You can also argue that the Browns already had the players in place. They just needed a coach to implement a friendly system to its players, something former coach Freddie Kitchens mishandled.

However, let’s take the Cornell graduate’s word for it. The game was every bit as entertaining as it’s always been in the past. We didn’t see an uptick in injuries. And at the end of the day, the product remained a high-quality one.

Because many NFL starters did not like the idea of a 17th game, citing concerns for wear and tear on the body. And odds are, teams may compensate the 17th game with decreased practice time in training camp, OTAs, mini-camps, and the preseason.

But if you’re placing your bets around potentially sloppy play when the tidal wave of the NFL season hits, expect nothing different from what we’ve seen in the past.

Expect Regular Season Advantages to the AFC Teams

Roger Goodell stated he expects NFL stadiums to return to full capacity during the 2021 NFL Season. No, you may not see full capacity off the bat. But with the 17th game, the AFC teams will host the NFC teams, giving the AFC teams nine home games as opposed to eight for the NFC teams.

Come 2022, the NFC teams will get nine games as opposed to the AFC teams getting eight at home, and the cycle should continue this way for the foreseeable future.

In 2019, we’re not counting 2020 given the varying number of fans attending games, road teams won 48.5%of their games, while home teams won 51.5% of the time, which predictably gives a slight advantage to the home team.

Okay, 51.5 to 48.5? What’s the big deal? It’s just 3%.

Sure, that may be so. However, here’s where things get interesting. The NFC West plays the AFC North, and the NFC North plays the AFC West. This one will require road trips through time zones. For all four NFC West teams, it means adjusting the body clock to three hours in advance.

Also, minus the Seattle Seahawks, each NFC West team plays in warm weather climates. And all four AFC North teams play in cold weather climates. If the NFC West teams are playing the AFC North late in the season, it can pose as a tremendous disadvantage to them.

As for the traveling NFC North teams to the AFC West, there is still a potential time zone change. For example, it’s Mountain Time for whoever’s going to Denver, and Pacific Time for the team visiting the Los Angeles Chargers. That too will play a factor.

The AFC East plays the NFC East. And the AFC South plays the NFC South.

So, things may not be as murky there. But as we can see from the numbers, you’re still giving a slight advantage to the home teams since they win more often on their home turf.

With cross-country road trips going on, it gives the home teams a far higher advantage—especially if they’re evenly matched like the Browns and Cardinals. However, team talent will play a factor. I’m sure none of us are expecting the Bengals to beat the 49ers.

So, there are outliers. But overall, give the AFC North and AFC West the home-field advantage in this one. Unless there is a huge discrepancy in team talent, like with the Niners and Bengals.

Expect Longer Rookie and Veteran Walls

It happens every single season. Rookies hit a wall, and aging veterans not named Tom Brady hit a wall.

And with 17 games on the slate, you may see the older teams in the league melt down along with the younger teams. But wait, it gets better. Since barely any of our rookies played a full season of college football in 2020, they may struggle even more in 2021.

Ditto for the veterans who opted out of playing in 2020. You shouldn’t see too much of a drop off for those in the prime of their careers. But for vets over the age of 30, you can expect a wall. Some of these guys haven’t played a single down of football in two seasons.

As for the rookies who opted out of playing in 2020, not only do they need to return to football shape; they also need to do so while transitioning from the college game to the professional game.

Some teams—like the New Orleans Saints in 2020—didn’t melt down until the playoffs, which was their 18th game of the season as the second seed. This season, expect it to happen to the league’s oldest football teams.

But if a rebuilding team full of rookies and young players take the field in 2021, you can expect a longer wall as well (not that you should refrain from betting on them or that you should change your betting strategy). Still, it’s wise to think twice before you place anything more than an over/under bet on them. Bets that include making the playoffs or even a playoff run are bets you need to mull over.

Expect Fewer Preseason Injuries

This is a huge one, and it’s one that often haunts NFL teams during the 16-game season. Odds are, coaches will look to keep their key players fresh for the regular season. So, here, you can expect them to preserve them more during training camp and the preseason for the 17-game slate.

This point is related to the second section of today’s post, where you shouldn’t expect early season rust.

Now, don’t get me wrong, key players will still practice. However, expect more reps to go to second, third, and potential practice squad players and camp arms.

With a shorter preseason, odds are coaches around the league will look closer at fringe players that they either will or won’t keep for the regular season. The only time you’ll see substantial playing time from the starters and key players will occur with younger teams and those with new coaches.

Conclusion

The 17-Game NFL season will change futures betting forever. However, you shouldn’t expect drastic changes. Instead, each conference will rotate home-field advantage, especially if one team makes a cross-country road trip.

As 2020 proved, you won’t see so much rust, and coaches will look to give backups and fringe roster players more reps in training camp and preseason. The league’s more talented teams will see higher than expected over/under projections.

And yes, you will see rookie and veteran walls, at least in 2021. But this may dissipate after a year or once the players get used to the 17-game regular season slate.

Do you foresee any changes? And do you believe other factors will come into play here? Let us know your thoughts in the comments.