In October, the undefeated Khabib Nurmagomedov announced his retirement from UFC after successfully defending his lightweight title against Justin Gaethje.
Not only did the announcement mean that one of the promotion’s top fighters was leaving the sport in his prime, but it also meant that the UFC will need to crown a new lightweight champion as the belt has now become vacant.
UFC betting sites have released an interesting prop bet that asks bettors to decide on which fighter will become the next UFC lightweight champion. Let’s step inside the betting octagon to examine this prop bet and predict who will win the vacant championship.
UFC’s Dana White (@danawhite), on Conor McGregor vs. Dustin Poirier.
“Nothing is done yet. Jan. 23 on Fight Island if everything goes according to plans. There are a ton of if’s right now. I have to see where the world is in the next couple of months.” https://t.co/X7CPRq2LCs
— Brett Okamoto (@bokamotoESPN) November 10, 2020
Who Will Be the Next UFC Lightweight Champion?
Following odds are courtesy of BetOnline:
- Conor McGregor (+100)
- Dustin Poirier (+200)
- Tony Ferguson (+600)
- Michael Chandler (+700)
- Justin Gaethje (+900)
- Charles Oliveira (+1200)
- Georges St-Pierre (+2500)
As of now, these are the only available options. However these odds were taken prior to the Rafael dos Anjos win over Paul Felder on November 12th.
Conor McGregor (+100)
Conor McGregor is the odds on favorite to win the UFC lightweight championship for two main reasons. The first being that he was the second best lightweight behind Khabib.
The second reason is that he’s already in line to return to the octagon in January 2021 and to take on Dustin Poirier, which many pundits believe that bout will be for the title.
McGregor is a former lightweight champ, but went to box Floyd Mayweather Jr. instead of defending his belt. Eventually, McGregor would be stripped of the title due to the inactivity inside the octagon. Conor would return in 2018 to fight Khabib Nurmagomedov at UFC 229 in October 2018. He lost the fight.
Following the loss to Nurmagomedov, McGregor was out of the octagon until January 2020 when he returned to defeat Donald Cerrone. But, like in 2017 and 2018, McGregor announced that he was retiring in June.
That lasted about four months before the UFC convinced McGregor to take on Poirier. It was almost as if Dana White was giving McGregor a fight he could win in order to prevent Conor from a prolonged retirement and chasing a boxing fight against Manny Pacquiao.
Dustin Poirier (+200)
Poirier last fought in late July when he defeated Dan Hooker in a thrilling five round battle. It was one of the best fights of 2020 as the two combatants went to war for 25 minutes. Prior to that win, Dustin lost to Nurmagomedov in September 2019. That was Khabib’s second title defense.
Poirier had earned the title shot by winning the interim lightweight belt in April 2019 in a unanimous decision win over Max Holloway.
McGregor and Poirier first fought in September 2014, which Conor won via 1st round TKO in less than two minutes.
Over the last few years, McGregor had shot down any talk of a rematch against Poirier. Well, that all changed in the last few months as Conor appears to be 100% on board.
A few days ago, UFC President Dana White gave an update on the rematch between McGregor and Poirier:
“I don’t know (if he signed it yet). Listen, I’m not worried about it. Conor McGregor has never said, ‘Listen I want to fight,’ gone out the way that he’s gone out, talked about it. We got him his own date. Conor McGregor’s going to show up and fight. I’m not worried about his bout agreement, but I don’t know if it’s been signed. I’m assuming it has, but it wasn’t the other day when I texted the fight wasn’t done yet.”
For the rematch, McGregor is the betting favorite listed at a range of -215 to -230 odds. Poirier is listed with odds ranging from +170 to +190.
Tony Ferguson (+600)
Tony Ferguson was once considered the only man who had a shot at defeating Khabib. Ferguson had won 12 straight fights and earned a title shot. However, with Khabib out of action, Ferguson took a fight with Justin Gaethje for the interim lightweight belt in May.
Gaethje ended up beating Ferguson via 5th round TKO and looked great in the process. Nobody thought that Ferguson could lose like that.
“Time-2-Rise” # D’arceKnightRises … Again ⚔️🕶 Lets Close out 2020 In Style. Michael Chandler you Putz, Ya Asked For It. # AddedToTheListBish’ CSO™️ 🇺🇸🏆🇲🇽 December. @danawhite @seanshelby @ufc @MikeChandlerMMA # My👇Mat -Champ 🕴 pic.twitter.com/IOyFvbufPT
— Tony Ferguson (@TonyFergusonXT) November 14, 2020
Since then, Ferguson has been on the sideline trying to get a fight that will put him back into the title hunt. He was supposed to fight Dustin Poirier in October, but that fight apparently fell apart in the negotiation process.
Ferguson continues to call out McGregor on social media including posts declaring that Conor is a “coward.”
Just recently, Ferguson has publicly agreed to fight Michael Chandler. He’s angling for that bout to take place at UFC 256 in December.
Michael Chandler (+700)
The former Bellator standout Michael Chandler came to the UFC in the fall and was the backup fighter for the title fight in October just in case Khabib Nurmagomedov or Justin Gaethje was unable to compete.
Following Khabib’s retirement announcement, Chandler said that the UFC should hold a four man tournament including himself, Ferguson, McGregor and Poirier.
McGregor 🇮🇪
Chandler 🇺🇸
Poirier 🇺🇸
Ferguson 🇺🇸@MikeChandlerMMA wants to see a four-man tournament to decide the next UFC lightweight champion 🏆 pic.twitter.com/d5lt2cy0Fg— UFC on BT Sport (@btsportufc) October 25, 2020
I am all for that idea. Unfortunately, the UFC doesn’t do tournaments anymore despite how successful they are in Bellator and other MMA promotions.
A four man tournament for the vacant lightweight title would be awesome especially with the four names at the top of the division.
I’m a fan of Chandler and Ferguson. I would love to see that fight. The winner of that bout deserves a title shot. Unfortunately, I don’t see a Ferguson vs Chandler bout being for the vacant UFC lightweight title.
Justin Gaethje (+900)
Justin Gaethje was the interim lightweight champion, but ended up losing to Khabib Nurmagomedov in October via 2nd round submission. It was a surprising loss as most pundits were predicting the fight to go into the championship rounds. In fact, some pundits even though Gaethje could win.
Prior to that loss, Gaethje had won four straight fights. All four wins had come via TKO/KO including three in the 1st round.
Gaethje is 5-3 in the UFC and has also lost to Dustin Poirier back in April 2018. Following that loss, he went on a torrid winning streak that put him into a title bout with Nurmagomedov.
Gaethje would love to get the loss back from Poirier, but it looks like Dustin is in line for a bigger fight with McGregor next.
The reality is, with his latest loss, Gaethje falls down the pecking order and will need a few wins to get another title shot.
He also isn’t in line to fight the other four men previously mentioned. So, the UFC needs to find someone that’s ranked high enough to make a compelling fight for the former interim lightweight champ.
Charles Oliveira (+1200)
When Khabib announced his retirement, fans, pundits and fighters began making their lists of the top lightweight contenders deserving of a shot at the vacant belt. Not on that list was Charles Oliveira who’s ranked #6 in the division.
This omission of Oliveira didn’t go unnoticed by “Da Bronx.” The 31 year old Brazilian tweeted the following:
“@seanshelby @danawhite And I ? I’m ready. I come from seven victories in a row and only Poirier and I are coming from the victory of all these fighters who posted. I am ready, I deserve a chance, you will not regret it.”
Oliveira has won seven straight fights and hasn’t lost in three years. However, he has not fought any of the top ranked lightweights as of yet.
That’s something that should definitely be addressed in the near future. I believe Oliveira would be a great choice to fight Justin Gaethje next.
Both men need a big win to be in the Top 5 rankings. Furthermore, the winner could still be one fight away from a title opportunity while the loser has more work to do. That means the title scene won’t be overcrowded before we see McGregor vs Poirier and possibly Ferguson vs Chandler.
Georges St-Pierre (+2500)
This is just silly! There’s no reason for GSP to come back now. The rumors of a potential fight against Nurmagomedov have been shot down so many times that it’s hard to imagine GSP returning at all.
He’s been out of the octagon for several years and there’s no guarantee that he could even make 155 pounds. It’s time to truly accept that GSP is retired for good.
Rafael dos Anjos (NA)
Rafael dos Anjos picked up a solid win over Paul Felder on November 12th, and should be in the Top 10 rankings for the lightweight division. He’s a former lightweight champ and was supposed to fight Conor McGregor at UFC 196.
However, dos Anjos broke his foot and Nate Diaz took his place which sparked a fantastic rivalry that included two fights between Diaz and McGregor.
Dustin first, but I’m down for it all. Throwback to this classic lol.
Look at Dana hahahah
Vintage MMA entertainment.
El Chap! pic.twitter.com/GiC3yl8HB6— Conor McGregor (@TheNotoriousMMA) November 15, 2020
After the fight against Felder, dos Anjos called out McGregor once again. RDA wants that fight especially since it was scrapped several years ago.
RDA went up to welterweight after dropping the lightweight belt to Eddie Alvarez in 2016. He also lost to Ferguson via unanimous decision before moving up. He would post a 4-4 record in the welterweight division, which included a loss to Colby Covington for the interim welterweight title.
I think RDA should be in the conversation. In fact, if you add Gaethje, Oliveira and RDA to the mix, you now have seven contenders. One more and we could get an eight man tournament to determine the UFC lightweight champ. Dan Hooker would make a good addition to this tournament.
As for McGregor and RDA, Conor said he would be interested in that fight after he takes on Poirier first.
Fantasy Booking for the Lightweight Title
If I were Dana White, I would book the following fights:
- Conor McGregor vs Dustin Poirier for the UFC lightweight title
- Tony Ferguson vs Michael Chandler for the #1 contender
- Justin Gaethje vs Charles Oliveira
- Rafael dos Anjos vs Islam Makhachev
Following those four fights, I would then book the winner of Gaethje and Oliveira to fight the winner of RDA and Makhachev for the next #1 contender’s spot. The division would be booked through next summer, it would have a champ, and some clear direction with the top of the rankings.
Who Becomes Next Lightweight Champ?
In all likelihood, the winner of the McGregor vs Poirier fight in January will become the next lightweight champ. I don’t see the UFC making any other fight for the title other than that one.
McGregor is the former lightweight champ and Poirier is the former interim lightweight champ. Furthermore, McGregor is the biggest UFC draw and a title fight should do big PPV numbers, which the UFC definitely needs in this pandemic era of sports.
As for the winner, you have to give the edge to McGregor especially since he easily won their first fight. Plus, he just seems like the better all-around fighter than Poirier. However, this rematch should be a war as Poirier is a fantastic striker. But, is he on McGregor’s level of striking?
If for some reason that fight falls apart, and the UFC can’t book Chandler vs Ferguson for a title fight, then Gaethje vs Poirier 2 should be the fight to make. Both men have lost to Khabib and they both were the most recent interim lightweight champs.
Who Becomes Next Lightweight Champ? –McGregor (+100)
Rick Rockwell
As a longtime freelance writer, avid sports fan, former athlete, and experienced sports bettor, Rick Rockwell has risen up the ranks at GamblingSites.org to become the self-professed “King of the Blog” in his first year with the site. …
