With O’Brien Axed, Who Will Be the Next NFL Head Coach to Get Fired?

On Monday, the Houston Texans fired head coach and GM Bill O’Brien after a 0-4 start to the season. The Texans were under a microscope ever since O’Brien traded star receiver DeAndre Hopkins to the Cardinals. Unfortunately for the team and O’Brien, things only got worse from there.

The firing of O’Brien should serve as a notice to the rest of the coaches on the hot seat that jobs aren’t safe if you continue to underperform. And, because of that notice, there are several coaches that could end up joining O’Brien in the unemployment line sooner than later.

With that in mind, NFL betting sites have released a prop bet on which coach will get fired next. These candidates are the same cast of characters listed with O’Brien when I first covered this prop bet a few weeks ago.

Let’s take a look at the updated odds and see if we can make another accurate prediction on which NFL head coach gets fired next.

NFL Betting Odds

The following betting odds are courtesy of BetOnline:

• Adam Gase (-175)
• Dan Quinn (+250)
• Matt Patricia (+400)
• Doug Marrone (+700)
• Mike Zimmer (+1200)
• Anthony Lynn (+1400)
• Vic Fangio (+1400)
• Matt Nagy (+2000)

Adam Gase (-175)

At 0-4 the New York Jets appear to be on their way to the worst record in the AFC. In fact, they could challenge for the worst record in the entire league.

When we looked at this prop bet two weeks ago, Gase was +150, after Bill O’Brien was fired this week, he’s now -175. That’s a big jump. Yet, once again, I don’t see Gase being the next head coach fired.

Jets fans trying to get Adam Gase fired… pic.twitter.com/AK6IGumBUd

— NFL Memes (@NFL_Memes) October 6, 2020

Although they came up short in a winnable game against the Broncos on TNF in Week 4, the Jets are starting to get some players back from injury. Receiver Jamison Crowder returned and star RB Le’Veon Bell will be back soon. These two will definitely help improve the offense.

Once again, I maintain that GM Joe Douglas is more at fault with the current Jets roster than Adam Gase. He failed to improve the wide receiver position and the secondary. Although he added draft picks for next year and beyond, Douglas didn’t do Gase and QB Sam Darnold any favors this season.

Dan Quinn (+250)

Here we are once again talking about how sad the Atlanta Falcons are. They’re also 0-4 like the Jets, but this team is a bigger disappointment considering they have two of the Top 20 receivers in the league and a former NFL MVP in QB Matt Ryan.

Yet, they can’t seem to stop anyone on defense, which was evident in allowing Chicago to come from behind in the 4^th quarter to win in Week 3 and to get crushed by the Packers in Week 4 by the score of 30 to 16.

That second late game collapse to the Bears put Quinn firmly on the hot seat especially after the historic collapse against the Cowboys in Week 2.

Furthermore, the Falcons showed that they can’t compete with the top teams in the NFC like the Packers and the Seahawks who combined to beat Atlanta 68 to 41.

The Falcons’ defense is atrocious and it doesn’t appear to be getting better anytime soon. This could be the downfall of Quinn’s tenure in Atlanta.

Matt Patricia (+400)

Detroit is on Bye Week as of this writing, so Patricia’s job is safe for at least a few weeks. The Lions should be sitting 2-2 on the season, but they literally dropped the game winning TD against the Bears in Week 1.

After a blowout loss to the Packers in Week 2, Detroit bounced back with a solid win over the unbeaten Arizona Cardinals. They then played a tough Week 4 matchup against the Saints where they lost by six points.

The Lions needed this Bye Week to get players healthy as they’ve been banged up. Star WR Kenny Golloday returned to action in Week 4 and he will definitely improve this offense.

But, there is concern with the Lions defense as they’ve allowed 35 or more points twice so far. Defense is supposed to be Patricia’s calling card, but that hasn’t been the case since he took the head coaching job.

Patricia is 10-25-1 in Detroit and with each loss the heat is turned up on the hot seat. With that said, there are some opportunities to win ball games over the next six weeks.

During that stretch, the Lions play the Jaguars, Falcons, Colts, Vikings, Washington and the Panthers. Combined, those teams are 8-16 after four weeks. If Detroit can pick up a few wins then Patricia could make it through the season. If they lose most of these games then Patricia will be gone by Thanksgiving.

Doug Marrone (+700)

After pulling off the upset in Week 1 over the Colts and narrowly losing to the Titans in Week 2, the Jaguars and Doug Marrone appeared to be on their way to proving all of the critics wrong by exceeding all expectations.

Well, that notion has crashed and burned as the Jaguars have dropped two straight games to the Dolphins and the Bengals. They were outscored 64-38 in those two losses and appear to have taken a huge step back in terms of overall play on the field.

Jaguars coach Doug Marrone said can’t worry about himself with the task at hand https://t.co/psbwLU6NUJ via @jaxdotcom

— Gsmitter (@gsmitter) October 5, 2020

Marrone is now once again back on the hot seat as this team appears to be heading towards my preseason prediction of 4-12 or 5-11 at best. Yet, I still see Marrone lasting longer than other coaches on this list considering everyone knew that this front office gutted the roster with an eye on 2021.

Mike Zimmer (+1200)

I said it two weeks ago, and I will say it again, I Just don’t see the Vikings firing Zimmer. Even if they finish with double digit losses on the season, Zimmer is still the man for this team. Most of the blame needs to be laid at the feet of the Vikings GM Rick Spielman.

For a GM who has had as much success as Spielman has had in his first 8 years with this position, he really did a poor job this offseason. Most notably was the handling of the salary cap and the inability to replace the massive departures on defense.

The Vikings offense has played well through four weeks, but it’s the defense that’s the major reason why Minnesota is 1-3 on the season.

I don’t see things getting much better for Minnesota this year because they just don’t have a lot of talent on the defensive side of the ball. Nevertheless, I believe that Zimmer’s job is safe until at least the end of the season.

Anthony Lynn (+1400)

I find it silly that Anthony Lynn is an option for this NFL prop bet. He’s too talented and respected to be in danger of getting fired.

Not only did the Chargers let go of some key players in the offseason like QB Philip Rivers, but they also have suffered some significant injuries like RB Austin Ekeler who will miss six weeks.

Yet, the Chargers have been very competitive and have a bright future with rookie QB Justin Herbert who has looked great in his first few starts of the season. He replaced Tyrod Taylor who had a freak medical injury and has played solid football.

With all of these elements working against Lynn, in addition to his popularity with his peers and players, I just don’t see Lynn being fired in 2020. The Chargers would set their franchise back another two to three years if they fired Lynn.

Vic Fangio (+1400)

Fangio has also had to deal with significant injuries this season. The optimism heading into the 2020 season was quickly smothered by the losses of Von Miller, Drew Lock, Courtland Sutton, Phillip Lindsay and Noah Fant all because of injuries.

Lock has missed three games and should be back soon. Fant and Lindsay will return in a few weeks. But, Sutton and Miller are lost for the season. Denver basically lost their best players on both sides of the ball.

Yet, at 1-3, Denver has played competitive football despite the losses of key contributors and a tough schedule where they faced the Titans, Steelers and Buccaneers in their first three games. Those teams are a combined 10-1. That’s a sign of the team’s respect for head coach Vic Fangio.

I believe Fangio will make it through the season especially if Denver continues to play hard for him.

Matt Nagy (+2000)

A QB controversy and a season ending injury to RB Tarik Cohen hasn’t stopped the Bears from going 3-1 to start the season. Their defense has played solid, but the offense has been very inconsistent. The hope is that Nick Foles can right the ship on offense and lead them to victories.

Their unbeaten record ended in Week 4 against the Colts and they have another tough matchup against the Bucs in Week 5.

With that said, I believe this team will flirt with a .500 record all season long and could possibly contend for the final Wild Card spot. That certainly would earn Matt Nagy more time as a head coach.

However, if things go south and they finish with a losing record then I can see Nagy being fired at the end of the season.

Which Coach Gets Fired Next?

Oddsmakers are definitely favoring Adam Gase once again, but I think he gets a pass until his best players return from injury. In other words, he should have two or three more weeks.

One coach that I don’t think has two or three more weeks is Atlanta’s Dan Quinn. In Week 5 they play the Panthers and I think Carolina has a good shot at winning. If somehow he survives for another week, I don’t see Atlanta beating Minnesota in Week 6.

Dan Quinn miraculously not first head coach fired in 2020 season https://t.co/pn6e2TnOGu pic.twitter.com/BX9HQ71PjU

— The Failcoholic (@TheFalcoholic) October 5, 2020

Bottom line, the race for the next head coach firing should produce a result within the next two games. Quinn offers more value than Gase and he doesn’t have the luxury of pointing to a GM who did a bad job like Gase does.

I think Dan Quinn will be the next head coach to join Bill O’Brien in the unemployment line.