Wizards at Raptors NBA Betting Prediction

The Washington Wizards and Toronto Raptors will try to shake off the doldrums of disappointing seasons when the meet tonight in the Raptors’ temporary home of Tampa, Florida. Competing with the popularity of March Madness Finals today, both teams are clinging to slight playoff hopes as they sit 11^th and 12^th in the Eastern Conference standings. A win tonight can push one of these teams in the right direction.

Moneyline Betting Odds

• Toronto Raptors (-198)
• Washington Wizards (+173)

Spread Betting Odds

• Toronto Raptors -5 (-110)
• Washington Wizards +5 (-110)

Over/Under Betting Odds

• Over 227.5 (-110)
• Under 227.5 (-110)

The Wizards at one point looked like they were turning their season around when they won seven of eight in one stretch in February. But that proved to be fool’s gold, as they’ve retreated to 4-13 in the action since then. They come in on another slide, with three losses in a row by an average of over 20 points per game, and their overall record sits at a season-worst 17-31.

The Raptors can tell a similar story. They moved to 17-17 on February 26, but then proceeded to lose 13 of 14 games. A small consolation is that they’re coming off a romping victory over Golden State, which put them, at 19-30, just a game-and-a-half back of Chicago for the tenth and final playoff spot in the East.

Injury Report

Early word on Bradley Beal, who has missed the last four Wizards contests, is that he is questionable for tonight’s game with a hip bruise. The questionable tag is actually an improvement for him, which means there is an outside chance that the NBA’s leading scorer suits up in this one. Another key component for the Wizards who might miss: starting power forward Rui Hachimura, who is dealing with a shoulder injury that kept him out of the last game and is also listed as questionable.

When Toronto held onto Kyle Lowry at the trading deadline, it seemed like an indication that they were going to fight it out for whatever playoff spot they could salvage. But injuries are suddenly making that a difficult proposition. Lowry will definitely miss on Monday with a foot injury, while his backcourt mate Fred VanVleet could join him on the sidelines with a hip flexor.

Toronto was able to get a nice performance out of reserve point guard Malachi Flynn in their win the other night over Golden State. But it goes without saying that they’ll be a lesser team against the Wizards without those two, as they are the engine that makes the Raptors run.

Are They That Bad?

When you submit these two teams to the eye tests, they look much different. Washington, especially without Beal, certainly looks like a lower-tier NBA squad. The rest of the lineup is largely populated by journeyman types and youngsters without much of a pedigree.

But when you look at the Raptors, you see a team with a lot of pieces from their recent run of success, including a championship two years ago. In addition to VanVeet and Lowry, there are also Pascal Siakam and OG Anunoby in what seems like a formidable group of veterans (when all healthy.) On top of that, they have enjoyed a breakout year from multi-faceted sixth man Chris Boucher.

Yet there they are scrapping for one of the last playoff spots in the East. Why is that? Well, it’s conceivable that they’ve been a victim of bad luck to some degree, at least when you consider their results against their point differential:

The Raptors have a +25 point differential for the season, the 13th best mark in the league.

They are 19-30, the 24th best record in the league. pic.twitter.com/BgXiMXVr8e

— StatMuse (@statmuse) April 3, 2021

Obviously, the record is the bottom line. But those numbers are a good indicator that this team might be a little bit better than their record. When you consider that the Wizards plus-minus per game is minus 5.6, compared to the Raptors plus 0.5, there could be an angle you can exploit betting this game.

Why Washington Struggles

Many people thought there might be some sort of clash between Russell Westbrook and Bradley Beal when it came to them playing together for the first time this season. But they’ve actually been enjoying pretty fantastic individual seasons, numbers-wise. As long as he plays enough to qualify, Beal is heading to a scoring championship, and Westbrook has been putting up video-game numbers when it comes to some of his triple-double games.

The Wizards play at the fastest pace in the NBA, no surprise with Westbrook’s speed in going from end to end as the primary ball-handler. And yet they are only 11^th in the NBA in scoring offense. That doesn’t add up, at least until you look a little deeper at the numbers.

Washington doesn’t do a great job handling or shooting the basketball, which, again, is partly a reflection of the guy with the ball in his hands most of the time. Take a look at their consistently mediocre numbers in some key offensive categories:

• Free Throw Percentage: 23^rd
• True Shooting: 21^st
• Effective Shooting: 21^st
• Turnovers: 21^st

The free-throw percentage reared its ugly head in the Wizards’ loss last week to Detroit, as they shot a pitiful 6 for 19. When you’re a lower-tier team, you simply don’t have the luxury of getting away with issues like that. For the Wizards to succeed against Toronto, they need to shoot well and take care of the ball, two areas that they haven’t proven they can manage consistently this season.

Trent Trending Up

The one major move that the Raptors did make at the deadline was offloading Normal Powell, who was in the midst of a career season, getting Gary Trent Jr. back as the main compensation from Portland. Trent is a rising sharpshooter in the league who first made his presence known during the Blazers exciting run in the bubble last year. With Toronto, he is in a prime spot to be a regular for the first time in his career.

It didn’t start off so well in his Raptors stint, however. His outside shot was way off. As a guy who doesn’t do a lot besides that on the floor in terms of filling the stat sheet, Trent’s poor shooting was particularly worrisome.

But shooters keep shooting, and the good news is that Trent turned it around in a big way in his last two games:

• First 3: 9.7 PPG, 32.4% FG 23.5% 3PT
• Last 2: 27.5 PPG, 55.6% FG, 60% 3PT

On top of that, he even accomplished an interesting feat in the blowout win over Golden State:

Highest +/- by a player in a game since 1997*:

+57 — Luc Mbah a Moute in 2017

+54 — Gary Trent Jr tonight

(*The earliest we have data) pic.twitter.com/9Vhy0r2iex

— StatMuse (@statmuse) April 3, 2021

It doesn’t get much more valuable than plus-54. Trent will be in the spotlight tonight, especially if both VanVleet and Lowry are out as expected. He’ll need to keep lighting it up if the Raptors can cover the spread.

What’s the Best Bet?

Toronto is certainly vulnerable in some areas, but the Wizards don’t seem all that well-equipped to take advantage. For example, Toronto often goes without a true center. But Washington’s duo of Alex Len and Robin Lopez, other than scooping some offensive rebounds here and there, won’t do much to make a difference in the middle either.

Expect Toronto to get what they want offensively and to shoot the ball well. And expect Westbrook to put a triple-double as usual. But it won’t make a difference as Toronto wins and covers. Be sure to check out our New York Knicks at Brooklyn Nets pick for some additional NBA betting value this Monday.