2020 Election Props: Will Democrats Sweep on Election Night?

You may have heard that Donald Trump faces a tough road to re-election. The president has become a sizable plus-money underdog to win Tuesday’s US presidential election at a variety of betting sites, including MyBookie, BetNow, Bovada, and BetOnline. At this point, you’ll likely have a very hard time finding a political betting site offering minus-money odds on Trump winning a second term.

Of course, we saw four years ago that the odds only mean so much on Election Day. Trump faced even longer odds in 2016 before ultimately knocking off Hillary Clinton in stunning fashion. Much of the betting public still very much believes in Trump’s ability to beat the odds.

Regardless of what you may think personally, Democratic candidate Joe Biden is a heavy favorite. While his odds of winning the election have slipped to -165 after being as high as -200 as of late last week, the smart money is still on Biden to become the 46th president.

BetOnline has a number of election-related props. So, if Election Night isn’t stressful enough for you, you can put a little extra on the line if you wager on certain outcomes ahead of time. You’ve been waiting for this election for four years, so you might as well put your money where your mouth is.

Let’s dive into BetOnline’s slew of props and dig up some betting value.

Total Number of Votes for Trump

• Over 69.5 million (-170)
• Under 69.5 million (+130)

Turnout in this election is going to be huge. Over 100 million Americans early voted as most states increased access to polls before November 3. Due to the coronavirus pandemic, many voters decided to cast their ballots via mail as opposed to lining up at the polls on Election Day.

Four years ago, Trump lost the popular vote by nearly three million at the hands of Clinton. A total of 62,984,828 Americans voted for the former Apprentice star, which came out to just over 46 percent of the electorate.

With turnout being so large, it’s safe to assume that both major party candidates will earn more votes in 2020 than Trump and Clinton did in 2016. Over 75 percent of the total number of votes that were cast four years ago have already been cast in this election. Enthusiasm ahead of this election is sky-high on both sides of the aisle.

JUST IN: Florida has now reached 100% of 2016’s voter turnout.

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) November 3, 2020

There’s a chance between 150 and 160 million Americans vote in this election, which will crush the turnout (139 million) we saw in ’16. About eight million people voted third-party in 2016, which is unlikely to happen again. Expect Trump or Biden to eat up the vast majority of presidential votes in this election. As opposed to the six percent of the total vote third-party candidates accrued four years ago, expect that number to be around two percent this year.

It’s interesting that the odds so heavily favor Trump topping 69.5 million votes after hitting just under 63 million last time around. Trump will get more votes in 2020, and it’s certainly feasible that he goes over 70 million. Of course, with Biden’s over/under set at a whopping 79.5 million, Trump is still fully capable of getting annihilated in this election even if he smokes his 2016 total.

A flier on the under at +130 makes sense, but the over looks a bit safer.

Total Number of Votes for Biden

• Over 79.5 million (-150)
• Under 79.5 million (+110)

Biden is the favorite, so it makes sense that he’s expected to get more votes. Clinton wound up crushing Trump in terms of total votes four years ago, but she lost the election after losing the Electoral College. Many expect Biden to win the popular vote by an even larger margin in 2020.

Biden is at -150 to top 79.5 million votes, which is a truly staggering number. In 2008, Barack Obama got more votes for president than any other candidate in history, with 69,498,516. His former running mate is expected to beat that by more than 10 million.

The Democratic candidate has topped 50 percent in several national polls, which obviously bodes well both for his chances of winning and for his chances of running up the count. Let’s say Biden finishes with 50.5 percent of the national vote, for example. If exactly 160 million Americans vote, Biden would finish with 80,800,000 votes. Biden needs record national turnout and close to a majority of the total votes to get just past 80 million.

Is it possible? Sure. Is it likely? It’s tough to say. Biden can still easily win the election even if he doesn’t top 79.5 million votes. I’d take a stab at the under at +110 here.

Total Electoral Votes for Biden

• Over 310.5 (+130)
• Under 310.5 (-170)

As you can see, Biden is pretty heavily favored to trounce Trump in the Electoral College. Trump won the 2016 election by winning 306 electoral votes, which put him well past the threshold of 270 to win. Biden’s over/under sits at 310.5, so he’s expected to fare even better.

Trying to tabulate Biden’s total electoral count requires us to have a little fun with some maps. Because Trump is very unlikely to win any states he lost in 2016, Biden likely enters tonight with 212 electoral votes already in the bank. He really doesn’t need to do much damage to get past 270. Biden winning Florida, for example, would send him soaring to 241.

The former VP has a lot of wriggle room. He can get all the way to 316 electoral votes even if he loses Pennsylvania, Ohio, North Carolina, Texas, and Iowa. If he gets Florida, Georgia, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Arizona, he’s well over the top:

Even if we add Florida to Trump’s win column, Biden still sits comfortably ahead with 287 votes, more than enough to put him in the White House. Biden getting past 310.5 is difficult without Florida, but not impossible. While the Sunshine State has backed Republicans in many recent elections, Biden has held a fairly steady lead there in polling heading into Election Day.

Florida is a must-win for Trump. If he loses that state, his chances are toast. It’s more of a luxury for Biden, but if you think Biden takes it, then betting the over on the former vice president getting 310.5 electoral votes makes sense. If Florida goes for Biden, several more swing states are very likely to follow suit.

The possibility of a Biden landslide in this election is very real, so I think the over on 310.5 electoral votes here at +130 is a logical value. If you think Trump wins Florida, though, taking a shot on Biden’s under at -170 is fair enough.

Electoral/Popular Vote Outcomes

• Biden to win Presidency and Popular Vote (-170)
• Trump to win Presidency and Lose Popular Vote (+200)
• Trump to win Presidency and Popular Vote (+500)
• Biden to win Presidency and Lose Popular Vote (+4000)

Joe Biden is winning the popular vote in this election. Even the most ardent Trump supporter would admit as much if they are actually informed of expected results. Trump pulled out a narrow win last time around despite losing the popular vote by a huge margin.

While both candidates will earn more votes than both candidates did in 2016, it’s almost unfathomable to think Trump can make up that kind of a gap. So, right away, we can write off both outcomes here that involve Biden losing the popular vote.

It’s the Electoral College, not the national popular vote, that determines who wins the U.S. presidency. Here’s a look at how it works. https://t.co/eSO2IjvPrA

— The New York Times (@nytimes) November 3, 2020

That leaves Biden winning the popular vote and the presidency (-170) and Trump losing the popular vote but winning the presidency via the Electoral College (+200), which is the outcome we saw four years ago.

With Biden holding a wider polling advantages in several battleground states than Clinton did in ’16, it’s hard to imagine the Democrats losing all of the same swing states they lost last time. Michigan and Wisconsin, in particular, look very likely to swing blue. Biden holds smaller leads in states like Pennsylvania, Florida, and Arizona, but they’re leads nevertheless. Adding Georgia and Texas to the pile of swing states likely isn’t good for Republican hopes, either.

Because I think there’s a decent shot for Biden to top 310.5 electoral votes, I am obviously of the belief that he will win the election. As a result, Biden winning the election AND the popular vote at -170 is the no-brainer play.

Will Democrats Sweep the Election?

• Democrats win the presidency, Senate, and House of Representatives (-125)
• Republicans win at least one of the presidency, Senate, or House (-105)

Democrats are very likely to keep the House of Representatives after the 2018 midterm “blue wave” shifted the balance of power. Republicans held the White House and both houses of Congress for Trump’s first two years in office, but Democrats were able to win back the House majority in ’18. Not only are Democrats expected to keep their House majority tonight, but they’re expected to increase their advantage.

So, Republican hopes of holding much power in Washington hinge either on Trump or on enough Republican Senators winning their own races. We’ve touched at length on the likelihood of Trump failing to win his second term.

Can Republicans keep the Senate? Those on the right side of the aisle hold a 53-47 lead entering Election Day. Republican incumbents facing tough re-election fights include Susan Collins (ME), Joni Ernst (IA), Cory Gardner (CO), Thom Tillis (NC), David Perdue (GA), and Martha McSally (AZ). McSally, Gardner, Collins, and Tillis are all plus-money underdogs as of now.

The third and final debate in the Georgia Senate race between Sen. David Perdue and Jon Ossoff has been canceled after Perdue pulled out.https://t.co/OUyt8vGbjJ

— Kyle Griffin (@kylegriffin1) October 29, 2020

Republicans will almost surely flip one Alabama Senate seat, which means they can only afford to lose four. Democrats are likely to oust McSally, Gardner, Collins, and Tillis, which would leave both sides with 50 seats. Whichever party wins the presidency would be able to break a 50-50 tie in the Senate, which would effectively give the White House the Senate majority.

Democrats earning a majority hinges on their ability to knock off at least one of Ernst, Perdue, Dan Sullivan, Mitch McConnell, Steve Daines, or Lindsey Graham. Republicans are favored in all of those races, but several of them are competitive enough to go either way.


The safe money is a Democratic sweep on Election Night.