5 Ways to Nail Your 2021 NFL Mock Draft

Some NFL gamblers prefer to bet on full NFL mock drafts. For mock draft gambling, it’s less about getting a targeted pick right and more about the overall percentage of picks you get right in a given round.

Gamblers who successfully predict the highest number of picks will win the highest amount of cash. If you’re gambling with friends or a group, the prize could be in the format of winner takes all.

Whether you wager your mock draft with friends or oddsmakers on draft day, be sure to conduct proper research to nail your mock draft before Thursday evening.

This article highlights five important research areas for the NFL Draft.

1 – Follow Sites With Draft Rumors

In my experience, I’ve seen the best results in my own mock drafts are from researching websites that comprise rumor sections. My favorite is Walter Football. And every year that I make a new mock draft, paying attention to the site’s rumor mill doing so has landed me several accurate picks later in the first round when even many paid experts get their picks wrong.

Walter Football’s rumor mill really helped me win in 2018. Let me relive the year with you.

In the week leading up to the draft, rumors swirled on independent sites like Walter Football that the Browns would select quarterback Baker Mayfield. However, ESPN’s Mel Kiper still had Cleveland taking Wyoming’s Josh Allen while Todd McShay and others said USC’s Sam Darnold.

The Cleveland Browns took Mayfield with the first pick, which busted my friends’ mocks and set a precedent for how the rest of the first round played out. With the 15th pick, the then-Oakland Raiders drafted tackle Kolton Miller. Hardly any of my friends knew this unknown kid. I didn’t either.

But using indie sites with daily rumors over the larger sports media companies, I accurately picked Miller falling to Oakland. The same also went for center Frank Ragnow, who went five picks later to Detroit.

It showed me that following larger networks was useless, while alternative and independent networks like Walter Football helped make that draft a winner. And yes, I’m using the same strategy in 2021.

Another excellent source for NFL draft rumors is our NFL news section. If you’re looking for the latest updates on the NFL, this is the spot for you.

2 – Predict Best Available Over Need Early

Except at quarterback, this is a given. In recent drafts, higher chosen positions were random.

Let’s embark on a little history lesson.

If you go back to 2013, three of the top four picks were tackles. 2014 saw seven different positions going in the top 10.

In 2015 and 2016, quarterbacks went 1-2. But following the top two selections in 2015, three defensive linemen, two receivers, and two tackles were off the board by the 11th pick. It was much more uniformed than in random 2014.

2016 was a hybrid of 2014 and 2015, with two defensive ends, two tackles, and two corners selected after the first two picks.

In 2017, three receivers went in the top 10 along with two quarterbacks and two running backs. Only three picks were defense, two being defensive ends, and one being a safety. Not a single safety went in the top 10 from 2014 to 2016. Ditto for 2018 and 2019. Last year, Xavier McKinney was the first safety to come off the board at No. 36.

In 2014, no running backs went in the first round. Teams will definitely draft for a need if it falls to them. But they will more often take the best player available unless that need is a marquee player. The exception is the quarterback, which I’ll get into later.

Let’s say that a top-5 team needs to draft a safety but LSU’s Ja’Marr Chase—a wide receiver—falls to that team who has a decent receiving corps. Talent tends to outweigh need, especially with blue-chip prospects like Chase.

We saw this exact situation last year, when CeeDee Lamb fell into the Cowboys’ laps. The Dallas Cowboys didn’t have a specific need for Lamb, but the Oklahoma product was clearly the best player available after he slid in the first round. Always bet on the team to take the best player available in this scenario, especially if you’ve done some homework and you know the team’s front office loves to draft best available.

Defensive end and tackle usually have a higher priority. Next to quarterback, teams view pass rushers and pass protectors as franchise cornerstones in today’s game. It’s a passing league, so the days of taking running backs in the top 10 aren’t as prevalent. It happens, and multiple backs go in the top 10 sometimes.

But most are also pass catchers. Saquon Barkley (2nd overall, 2018), Leonard Fournette (4th overall, 2017), and Christian McCaffrey (8th overall, 2017) record more receptions than their team’s wide receivers in some seasons. The same goes for Dallas’ Ezekiel Elliott (4th overall, 2016), who recorded 77 receptions in 2018 and 54 in 2018.

See who the marquee players are, and most of these players go before the 10th overall pick. Rarely do you see a freefall here.

It happens. It has happened, and it will happen again. But be wise enough to know the best players won’t last past the 10th pick or, at the latest, the 15th pick.

3 – Overrate the Quarterbacks

If there’s one position that teams routinely overrate, it’s quarterback. This isn’t a bad thing, as guys like Delaware’s Joe Flacco and North Dakota State’s Carson Wentz had or are having solid NFL careers.

But quarterback is a position to watch, and most football teams are picking in the top 10 because they lack a decent quarterback. Look at 2021, where the consensus top pick is Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence.

Many experts project Alabama’s Mac Jones, Ohio State’s Justin Fields, and BYU’s Zach Wilson to be among the top picks in this year’s class, as well. Some mock drafts even guys like North Dakota State’s Trey Lance landing in the top 10, especially with so many quarterback-needy teams out there.

With that said, it’ll be no surprise when Lawrence, Fields, Jones, and Wilson go early. Don’t be afraid to project Lance to go high either. His numbers weren’t great, but there’s always that team in the top 10 who will snag a quarterback based on potential.

So, when perfecting a mock when you’re wagering, overrate the quarterbacks.

4 – Don’t Predict Trades

Back when I started wagering mock drafts, trades were never a thing. You predicted who was going where, and that was it. These days, projected trades are mock draft staples. And unless you’re the reincarnation of Nostradamus, don’t project them.

Draft day trades are impossible to predict. They happen. But often, a team drafting in the top 10 will stand their ground, especially if they’re in the top 5. Most of these teams have their man, and they want to draft him.

You might see some movement say, if the Washington Football Team (picking 8th) wants Wilson or Jones. So, they trade spots with Cincinnati and move up to five. Teams tend to get desperate when it comes to QBs, but predicting trades is still awfully difficult.

It’s why you shouldn’t even try to predict trades. The media reported the Bengals may shop the pick, but five teams could be connected to the move. If you’re building a mock and not betting live, or targeting teams and their respective odds, refrain from projecting trades.

It’s not to say I haven’t tried this. I did, in 2016. My results were disastrous. The Cleveland Browns finally got the guy I mocked to them in 2016. They signed him in March 2020 as a free agent.

Don’t play the trade game on draft day. It doesn’t work.

5 – Wager Only the First Round

Things get murky in the second round. The best available on Mel Kiper’s and Todd McShay’s big board never match what the other 32 teams have in their war room or in the case of 2020, their rec room.

Starting with the second round, you’ll see players get drafted who the draft magazines failed to cover—players you probably only ever heard of if you consulted online rankings, which often rank the top 60 to 70 players per position group.

Rarely do you see a major surprise land in the first round. It will happen. Teams will reach, especially for quarterbacks. But rarely do you see a guy projected to go 25th overall land in the top 10. You’re more likely to see the number 70 overall prospect get drafted 40th. It’s why I never understand experts and analysts who take the time to write a seven-round mock draft.

By the middle of the second round, hardly any are worth looking at—and no, don’t look at the revamped mocks written after the first and second day of the draft.

My biggest advice is to stick only to the first round.

Conclusion

The NFL Draft is unpredictable after teams select marquee players. However, you can still predict a decent first round by following rumors more than anything else. Sites like Walter Football are perfect for this, and they update rumors in real-time.

It’s also smart to predict the best prospects will land in the top 10 rather than need. Often, teams need the marquee players because when picking in the top 10; they lack game-changing playmakers. This means they’re looking for playmakers rather than need.

Overrate quarterbacks, as it’s the most sought-after position and the only one where teams prioritize need over best available. Never predict trades and only turn in a first-round mock.

Follow these steps and you will have increased your chances of winning on draft day. Nothing is a guarantee, but you can best equip yourself for success.

What do you think? Let me know in the comments.