Impeachment Odds: Will Donald Trump Be Convicted in the Senate?

Donald Trump may no longer be the president, but he’s still very much in the news. On Tuesday, Trump’s Senate impeachment trial will get underway. Trump was impeached by the House of Representatives last month on one article of helping incite the January 6 riot at the US Capitol that left several people dead with many more injured.

While some on both sides of the aisle are eager to wash their hands of Trump and just move along, many Democrats believe it is necessary for Trump to see some sort of punishment for his role in the insurrection. Just before the riot began, Trump gave a speech in front of the White House in front of his supporters in which he said,

“If you don’t fight like hell you’re not going to have a country anymore,” among other things.

Last month, Trump became the first president in American history to have been impeached twice. Trump was previously impeached in late 2019 for his decision to try and pressure the president of Ukraine to try and dig up dirt on the Biden family as Joe Biden began his presidential campaign. While the Democratic-led House of Representatives voted to impeach, the Republican-led Senate voted to acquit Trump at the ensuing trial.

BetOnline.ag is offering you the chance to wager on whether the Senate will vote to convict the former president this time around. As you can see, the odds heavily favor another acquittal:

Will the Senate Vote to Convict Trump?

• Yes (+1200)
• No (-5000)

As was the case for Trump’s first impeachment trial, Democrats will face an uphill battle when it comes to earning a conviction in the Senate. While the Democrats technically hold a majority in the chamber thanks to the tiebreaking abilities of Vice President Kamala Harris, two-thirds of all Senators would have to vote in favor of conviction in order for Trump to receive the full punishment.

In the first impeachment trial, Mitt Romney was the only GOP Senator to vote in favor of convicting Trump of wrongdoing. While Democrats made a strong enough case to flip one member of Trump’s own party, the Republican-controlled chamber also voted against allowing the Democrats to call witnesses.

It was one year ago today that thee Senate voted to acquit Donald Trump while Mitt Romney became the first senator in history to vote to convict a president of the same party https://t.co/v9Wdzo6qH0

— Ben Jacobs (@Bencjacobs) February 5, 2021

Whether the same occurs this time around remains to be seen. While Trump’s phone call to President Zelenskyy was made behind closed doors, his actions ahead of the January 6 insurrection were witnessed all over the world. Trump did not explicitly tell his supporters to invade the Capitol, but his repeated inferences were quite clear.

The riot came after months of Trump publicly bemoaning his defeat in November’s election. Despite having brought forth no evidence, Trump consistently claimed the election was rigged against him, and that Democrats and foreign powers had colluded to help Biden win. Trump’s legal team brought over 50 election-related lawsuits to various courts around the country, the vast majority of which were thrown out almost instantly.

What Happened on January 6?

The article of impeachment against Trump says that the then-president made comments that,

“Encouraged – and foreseeably resulted in – lawless action at the Capitol.”

Trump and several of his allies railed against the election results at the aforementioned January 6 rally that preceded the march on the Capitol. At the same time the rally was taking place, members of Congress were inside the Capitol officially ratifying Biden’s win in the election. Vice President Mike Pence, who refused to participate in Trump’s calls to overturn the election, was among those inside the building.

At issue in this week’s trial is the extent to which Donald Trump bears responsibility for his supporters storming the Capitol on January 6th https://t.co/lQaY8DxBRG

— The Economist (@TheEconomist) February 9, 2021

Following Trump’s speech, thousands of his supporters marched down Pennsylvania Avenue and proceeded to break through police barricades outside the Capitol. People could be seen breaking windows and forcing their way into the Capitol building despite the best efforts of local police. Word reached both chambers of Congress that the building had been breached, which forced members of Congress to evacuate or shelter-in-place.

Five people, including a Capitol Police officer, died in the midst of the riot. Several members of Congress said that they feared for their lives as a result of the invasion. The US Attorney for the District of Columbia says that his office has identified 400 suspects tied to the raid, and that 135 have been arrested thus far. The list of suspects is reportedly “growing by the hour.”

Some Bipartisan Support?

As mentioned, just one Republican felt courageous enough to vote to convict Trump the last time he was impeached. Senator Romney was also one of the Republicans to stand up and speak out against Trump’s actions after the insurrection on January 6.

However, there is reason to believe that Trump’s impeachment will get a little more GOP support than it did last time. While Trump is still the dominant figure in the Republican Party, the fact that he is no longer the sitting president means he certainly doesn’t have as much political sway as he did during his first trial. While most Republicans have remained steadfast in their loyalty to the ex-POTUS, there have been a few members of the party willing to flip the script.

VIDEO: US Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer announced that he and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell have agreed on the rules for the second impeachment trial of former President Donald Trump pic.twitter.com/D6wt3v6PUs

— AFP News Agency (@AFP) February 9, 2021

Mitch McConnell, the former Senate majority leader, is one of the few members of the GOP that has called Trump out for his misdeeds. McConnell was said to be “livid” with Trump over his actions. As a 78-year-old minority leader, it’s not impossible to think that McConnell’s re-election win last year was his last. He may no longer care about trying to secure his own political future. So, if the Democrats put forth a compelling case, there’s at least a chance that McConnell will vote in favor of conviction.

Some other Republicans that are reportedly open to hearing the case are Lisa Murkowski (Alaska), Ben Sasse (Nebraska), Susan Collins (Maine), Pat Toomey (Pennsylvania), and, of course, Romney (Utah). While that’s a bigger chunk of Republicans than we saw support the impeachment efforts last time, it’s still far below the threshold necessary for conviction.

Assuming all 50 Senate Democrats vote in favor of conviction, those six Republicans would still leave the chamber well short of the 67-vote conviction threshold.

Does Trump Have a Defense?

Trump’s impeachment trial defense will be led by attorneys Bruce Castor Jr. and David Schoen. The two were hired by the ex-president after a number of Trump’s original lawyers decided to quit at the last minute. The old attorneys reportedly backed away from the case amid Trump’s insistence that they continue to focus on the false premise that the election was rigged.

Trump’s legal team reportedly plans to argue that Democrats are using impeachment as a political tool while claiming that Trump’s comments before the raid were “constitutionally protected free speech.” The lawyers also plan to argue that the impeachment is unnecessary because Trump has already left office.

The defense team’s legal brief says,

“The Senate is being asked to do something patently ridiculous. Try a private citizen in a process that is designed to remove him from an office that he no longer holds.”

Rather than actually disputing the facts of the case, Trump’s defense seems to be based entirely on complaints about the actual impeachment procedure.

Will Trump Be Convicted by the Senate?

While it’s difficult to legitimately argue that Trump’s comments did not incite the insurrection, the facts don’t seem to matter all that much. The 100 Senators are supposed to act as impartial jurors in the case, but politics will still rule the day. Regardless of the evidence brought forth by the impeachment managers or the denials of Trump’s legal team, we can still expect the Senate to vote along party lines, for the most part.

Could the House impeachment managers make a compelling enough case to sway more Republicans than we expect?

It’s possible, but incredibly unlikely. Devout Trump loyalists like Senators Ted Cruz and Josh Hawley will vote to acquit the former president regardless. There is profit potential in the “yes” odds at +1200 from political betting sites, but meeting the 67-vote threshold will be nearly impossible in a highly divided Senate.